FT Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Starting by late 2023-second half of 2024. Then lasting 2-3 years, and I think the last year was only the beginning. I think the recent rise in valuations are part of a downward slope predominantly fueled by excess capital in the markets due to all the money printing. It would last awhile due to waves of defaults and fire sales.
I think there is significant risk lurking in corporate bonds, corporate real estate, sovereign debt, and overleveraged trade firms that will combine to create a rate of defaults and insolvency that could freeze up liquidity, increase unemployment, and decrease demand. I do think it's already started, and that it will increase as more debts mature, and more borrowers succumb to losing margins. I believe FT said something like $1T of corporate real estate debts will be maturing over the next year and a half, almost 20% of that market, so I'm watching that as one indicator.
I think much of the strong demand is because the economy was overheated by all the money printing, not just during 2020, but as a fed policy to "stimulate" the economy for many years. All the wealthy have sucked up that printed money and it, combined with artificially magnified price action with high frequency trading algorithms, is why we have this disconnect in stock prices. I don't think the economy is fundamentally healthy, and I don't conflate stock prices with the economy.
Moreover, global economies are slowing down. I think these cycles just take time. Also, the 10 year 3 month spread has been a pretty reliable indicator prior to recessions, when it's inverted. And right now it's been inverted since July 2022.
I try to consider it this way, there was ~$30T extra printed, and it circulates around the global economy propping it up. In order for inflation to come down, interests rates are rising, but only <$100B is getting taken out of the supply each month. More will have to be destroyed before inflation comes down, which will come through the form of write offs. I don't think that the stock market will be headed toward the highs of 2016-2022, because that period was just like steroids. Now that they've overdone it, it's catching up. What we're seeing now is just the same kind of dopamine-driven behavior to drive up the value of something based on short term hype and hopeful thinking.
Another way to answer your question in a TL;DR, the range of months it takes for a recession to begin after the 10yr3m spread inverts is 6-17 months.