EXP
Eagle Materials, Inc.
stock NYSE

I’m trying to understand why the market caught me by surprise today regarding my trade. I’ve only been trading since late March this year and I’m not consistently profitable yet. My strategy is basically options trading and determining the support and resistance levels for tickers. Robinhood has been the ticker I’ve been going in and out of since I started this strategy back in September. Anyways on DEC 3rd I bought a few contracts of HOOD 137 call EXP 12/12. Robinhood has been very reactive on rate cut probabilities. With the PCE data coming out today and high probability that the number would come in lower than expected I thought it would be a safe call to hold until Friday and see if the stock climbs higher. It did the opposite of that and before any data was even released. As it dipped this morning my decision was to hold until after the release of the PCE. My assumption was that the Market was reacting out of fear not data. It climbed a little after the PCE was released but eventually settled to 131.80. I was right about the data but was wrong about the Markets reaction.

I have been exclusively trading Put Credit Spreads for the past 12 months .. and It's been very profitable.
I don't trade on the MAG7 - It's either SPX or High IV tickers, mostly MSTR.
SPX positions are opened 45-60DTE, Δ is selected based with VIX in mind. Positions are closed no later than 14DTE.
High IV tickers are opened <10DTE - aiming to hold until EXP. Sometimes these turn into Short Iron Condors.
I keep two mantras in my head with these positions:
1. Short positions take time to develop, and they are NOT going to score big. Maintain a high win ratio.
2. Win Small .. Lose Smaller

I’m trying to understand why the market caught me by surprise today regarding my trade. I’ve only been trading since late March this year and I’m not consistently profitable yet. My strategy is basically options trading and determining the support and resistance levels for tickers. Robinhood has been the ticker I’ve been going in and out of since I started this strategy back in September. Anyways on DEC 3rd I bought a few contracts of HOOD 137 call EXP 12/12. Robinhood has been very reactive on rate cut probabilities. With the PCE data coming out today and high probability that the number would come in lower than expected I thought it would be a safe call to hold until Friday and see if the stock climbs higher. It did the opposite of that and before any data was even released. As it dipped this morning my decision was to hold until after the release of the PCE. My assumption was that the Market was reacting out of fear not data. It climbed a little after the PCE was released but eventually settled to 131.80. I was right about the data but was wrong about the Markets reaction.

I have been exclusively trading Put Credit Spreads for the past 12 months .. and It's been very profitable.
I don't trade on the MAG7 - It's either SPX or High IV tickers, mostly MSTR.
SPX positions are opened 45-60DTE, Δ is selected based with VIX in mind. Positions are closed no later than 14DTE.
High IV tickers are opened <10DTE - aiming to hold until EXP. Sometimes these turn into Short Iron Condors.
I keep two mantras in my head with these positions:
1. Short positions take time to develop, and they are NOT going to score big. Maintain a high win ratio.
2. Win Small .. Lose Smaller