EPS
WisdomTree U.S. LargeCap Fund
stock NYSE ETF

Sometimes it’s “sell the news” or guidance/AI capex spooked people even with EPS beats. Did you check the forward guidance and Azure growth vs last quarter?

Ever since I read Burry's post about Molina I thought maybe GameStop could buy a small position since it sounded like such a great opportunity, now I think Ryan read it too and he is going all in
I gave the two articles from CNBC and WSJ to Gemini and asked if it thought Molina could be a possible candidate, here is what it answered. (Forgive me, I normally don't share AI slop, but I thought this one was really interesting and to me it looks like things just line up perfectly)
Molina Healthcare is a **fascinating and highly plausible candidate**, especially when you look at the clues through the lens of the "Burry/Buffett" playbook.
Based on the 2026 context, here is why Molina looks like the "Diamond in the Rough" Ryan Cohen might be eyeing:
# 1. The "Michael Burry" Smoking Gun
In late December 2025, Michael Burry published a Substack titled **“Ghosts of GEICO Past,”** where he explicitly compared Molina Healthcare to Warren Buffett’s early investment in GEICO.
* **The "Wink":** Burry wrote that if he were "sitting on enough billions," he would acquire Molina entirely.
* **The Buyer:** Ryan Cohen *is* sitting on \~$9 billion in cash. Burry is a known GameStop shareholder and has publicly endorsed Cohen’s "Berkshire playbook." This looks like a public "bat-signal" from Burry to Cohen.
# 2. The "Sleepy Giant" Profile
Molina fits Cohen’s criteria of a "high-quality, durable" asset that is currently being punished by the market.
* **The Valuation:** Molina’s stock was hammered in late 2025, dropping nearly **50%** after missing earnings and lowering guidance due to "medical cost pressures."
* **The Revenue vs. Market Cap:** This is the "far larger" part. While Molina’s market cap (\~$10B) is similar to GameStop's (\~$11B), its **revenue is over $44 billion**. It is a massive enterprise currently trading at a "distressed" valuation, which Cohen loves.
* **The "Sleepy" Angle:** Cohen looks for management teams that aren't maximizing efficiency. Molina’s recent massive EPS miss could be the "proof" Cohen needs to argue for a change in governance.
# 3. The "Float" and the "NOLs"
This is the technical "genius" of the deal:
* **The Float:** As a healthcare insurer, Molina holds billions in **customer premiums** before they are paid out as claims. This is the "float" that built Berkshire Hathaway. Cohen could use that float to invest in other assets (like Bitcoin or other consumer companies).
* **The Tax Shield:** GameStop has massive **Net Operating Losses (NOLs)**. If GameStop acquires Molina, those losses could be used to shield Molina’s future profits from taxes, instantly increasing the company’s value by billions.
# 4. Is it a "Consumer" Company?
While we think of it as "Healthcare," Molina focuses on government-sponsored programs (Medicaid/Medicare) for families and individuals. Cohen’s expertise at **Chew y** was about obsessive customer service in a high-utilization, "durable" industry. Applying the "Chew y mindset" to the notoriously poor customer experience of health insurance would be a "transformational" move.
# The Verdict
Molina Healthcare isn't a retail store, but it is a **financial engine**. If Cohen wants to turn GameStop into a holding company like Berkshire, he needs an insurance engine.
**Wait—do you think the "Sleepy" clue could be even more literal?** Some investors have pointed out that Molina’s provider network is a major player in **"Sleep Medicine"** (Sleep Studies), which would be a classic Cohen-style pun.

EPS estiamte is $.96 that's not meant to be beaten, it's forced to miss. It'll pump anyway tho

Adobe and Novo Nordisk have both fallen 56% from their all-time highs. Adobe peaked at $688 in November 2021 and now trades around $301. Novo Nordisk peaked at $142 in June 2024 and now trades around $62.
Identical drawdowns. Yet Wall Street sees completely different futures.
For Adobe, analysts forecast strong EPS growth, from flat $10-12 (2021-2024) to $23.44, a +40% YoY jump. Despite the 56% decline, 27 analysts see accelerating fundamentals ahead.
For Novo Nordisk, the opposite. Historical revenue grew at 24% CAGR, EPS doubled at 35% CAGR. But analyst forecasts show a dramatic slowdown: revenue decelerating to just +5.1% YoY by 2025, EPS flatlining around $23 through 2027 (+2.7% YoY).
Would love to hear your thoughts on why analysts have diverging opinions on the two stocks, even though both have fallen over 50%.
Growth charts appear in a detailed post on the [Analyst Sentiment Framework](https://www.reddit.com/r/Stockoscope/comments/1qroxa5/a_systematic_framework_for_analyzing_analyst/), which integrates five components: rating distribution, price targets, earnings growth trends, financial health scores, and analyst coverage depth.
*Disclaimer: This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.*

Throughout the week I document the trades I made which had the cleanest setups and execution and were, overall, easy to trade. This is a concept I stole from Lance Breitstein and I've been compiling these writeups for years. It's made a big difference in my trading so I thought I share one or two a week here. Hopefully someone can take something away and otherwise the rest of you enjoy reading. Note that I document these in markdown so if you see some odd formatting that's why.
\---
\## TXN Earnings Play
\*\*CATALYST - EARNINGS\*\*
Texas Instruments' Q4 2025 report was defined by a tactical "miss" in the rear-view mirror paired with an aggressive "beat" in the forward windshield. While the company fell short of analyst estimates with \*\*$4.42 billion\*\* in revenue and \*\*$1.27 EPS\*\* (impacted by a $0.06 non-cash charge), the stock surged because management issued Q1 2026 guidance that projects sequential growth for the first time in 16 years—effectively signaling that the multi-year semiconductor "bottom" is over. This optimism was bolstered by a \*\*70% YoY explosion\*\* in Data Center revenue, proving TI is successfully capturing AI infrastructure demand, and a massive \*\*96% jump\*\* in annual Free Cash Flow to $2.9 billion as their heavy capital expenditure cycle finally begins to yield high-margin returns.
\*\*SETUP - GAP INTO RESISTANCE\*\*
https://preview.redd.it/9g4x0r2j6lgg1.png?width=1925&format=png&auto=webp&s=14d3acef2a61ced0aeb290c4bbefa40736330795
Leading up to earnings, TXN had shown a change of character starting around the end of November and has been cleanly uptrending into its earnings date. The stock was set to open around 205-210 following the earnings gap. The issue is that it was gapping up into a prior level of daily resistance at 209. The gap into resistance setup can be tricky and is one I usually like fade, but the exception is when the catalyst is strong enough to change the fundamentals of the company and present a breakout opportunity. This is what I was looking for here. The key was I needed to see price prove itself above that 209 pivot or else I'd have to pass on the trade.
https://preview.redd.it/456s6v5m6lgg1.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e9943c3871ed7259794245c2462a76382be7468
Leading up to the open in pre-market there was some selling pressure. Whenever you see this, it tends to invalidate any kind of opening drive play or opening range break. You have to see price start a linear move, take a rest, and then get in on the continuation.
https://preview.redd.it/9jktckuo6lgg1.png?width=1756&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b0abbe6e740d04c1d4ed30999e789fe761ba5c2
Another thing I was cautious of was the QQQ was running on day 6 of a move higher off the lows. I knew at some point the market was likely to backcheck this recovery so I did not want to get too aggressive on any long entries.
\*\*THE TRADE\*\* - FIRST FLAG CONTINUATION + HOD BREAK
https://preview.redd.it/z4icf3is6lgg1.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=8867da528ba8142b93e395ecb96e53f1c04b245d
This is a 1 minute chart and to open we had a huge candle try to run through 209 but get stuffed by sellers. Following that we had a seven minute consolidation right underneath the pivot. This is a very bullish signal and a very low risk entry point. We can see volume increasing and the tape sped up through the level. This is what you really want to see to take out a major level of resistance and so I got in at 209.10 with a limit order. The step went to the low of the consolidation and my plan was to just trail the 9 EMA (gold line).
There is a point after the initial strength were we got four really tight candles and I considered adding more size here, but the stock was already up 1.5 ATRs so I stayed with what I had. I exited half the position on the first break of the 9 EMA. It looked like we would rebid but when we failed to make a new high I got out the rest under the 9 again.
https://preview.redd.it/ujd3efxu6lgg1.png?width=1496&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec8eb9868d4cded9d253ccd88da91069fe508064
I switched the chart to a 2 minute to make this easier to read. I also tend to switch from a 1 to a 2 minute after the first hour of the day. For starters, I completely fumbled the awesome VWAP (red line) continuation play because I was trading something else. That really would have been the best entry. But what did set up was a bouncy ball style high of day break. This is a setup where price starts testing the highs while putting in higher lows along the way, essentially compressing the price action against the intraday resistance (compression leading to a break is 90% of my trading). The key to this entry is just seeing volume through the break, which we got a big spike through 213.35. My entry ended up being 213.41 and I was willing to risk to 212.89. I took 50% of the position off when we saw the first bar to break the prior bar's low to pay for the risk and I wanted to hold the second half into the close. A lot of times with these intraday range breaks you get a measured move of the first opening drive and I thought this had a chance to close near 220 if market conditions held up. Alas, I think I closed the second half around 216.10.
Overall, TXN was a pretty stress free trade. The best trades will always have a strong catalyst, a setup you can navigate with a clear trigger, and clean intraday price action offering multiple entries.
Feel free to ask any questions.

I think by now we all realize Rug Pull Ryan isn't interested in building a great company, but instead, is interested in a bloated payday for doing nothing that anyone on this platform couldn't have done themselves if running Gamestop. He is a billionaire thief interested in bringing up the market cap to meet his valuation to give him his big payday for doing nothing at all.

Cu\*trag Cohen is a thief who stole the short squeeze from us and DFV two years ago. He is no different than all other billionaire thieves and he also bought Bitcoin like a fking moron too and has lost money on that investment. He is a fking low IQ GED CEO.

With all of that said, the company will have to buy something that gets the market cap 2x higher than what GME currently has (100 billion over 5 years is what cu\*trag needs to get his socialized handout). This will not raise the stock price of GME as cu\*trag Cohen will dilute again if it does. Market cap is therefore not an indication of a successful company, profit is and so is share value. We are the ones who bought this company and saved it from being cellar-boxed. He hates his shareholders and looks at them like suckers.

Expect it to be another company that has roughly 10 billion in market cap and is about break even. A company that was shorted by his friends who shorted GME might also be on the table (M) and will allow them to close their shorts on M and if they form a new company, than GME too.

•Name the company

Levi Strauss (LEVI) Market cap 7.77B, EPS 1.26 Revenue 6.28B year
Can sell products in current stores
Boyd Gaming (BYD) Market cap 6.78B, EPS 22.47 ( yes, this # is correct), Revenue 4.07B
Online presence with nice upside.
Macy's (M) Market cap 5.32B, EPS 1.71, Revenue 22.71B
Can do what was done to Gamestop, just keep closing stores down that don't make money and then proclaim to be a genius while doing nothing. Cross sell products.

Because that's not "on earnings." Do you mean like "oh the earnings will lead to 15% off of 3 months?" That's not what most people read as "on earnings." On earnings means the next day. In almost every case, the biggest swings from earnings are at most 10%, and that's still a lot. Most are 5-7% one way or the other.
Am I being picky? Yeah. But like if you're going to start trying to sway people to make big financial decisions that could affect their livelihood, you better be really damn precise in what you're saying. And what I don't like is someone throwing out these insanely unrealistic expectations that are so fundamentally out of whack.
How much SoFi and SNDK are up over 2 years is besides the point. To have a 15-20% move off of earnings a stock needs something so fundamentally crazy like doubling EPS expectations combined with guidance way beyond expectations. And btw, Sandisk's 20%+ gains didn't even hold up 24 hours. Sure, the bar is lower for PYPL because it's a beaten down stock, but that part doesn't change regardless of how the stock did in the last year.

Kohl's has 1123 stores, a $1.96 billion market cap, $4.04 billion in debt, and is profitable (EPS 9.19). All of this despite poor management. GME could buy the company and pay off the debt with its cash on hand. They could also sell the brick and mortar GameStop locations and move them inside the Kohl's locations (similar to Sephora). If you think about it, Kohl's has just about everything but electronics. GameStop could easily scale up an electronics department and begin competing with the likes of Walmart and Target.
That's my hunch based on 30 minutes of little thought and even less research. I think it'd be a great fit.

Based off the rest of the market selling, I think that only being down 4-5% would be a natural reaction by the algos and some profit taking. Micron, as it currently stands, should be looking at an EPS expansion this year of 3-5x or more. Forward PE currently stands at 10-11, and so it’s not unreasonable to believe the price has 50% or more upside before this supercycle is said and done

Been digging into Microsoft's financials beyond the usual revenue and EPS numbers, and wanted to share some observations that caught my attention from a value perspective. I used \[thefinbase\](https://thefinbase.com) to pull together this data for my risk analysis before I buy this stock and \[tradingview\](https://tradingview.com) for financial information it has the best UI . No affiliation with these two just revealing my sources.
Now let’s get going:
Balance Sheet Shifting Toward Less Flexible Assets
Property, plant, and equipment increased nearly 50% in a single year (from \\\~$155B to \\\~$230B). That's a massive tilt toward long duration, non liquid assets. Meanwhile, depreciation jumped from $22B to $34B. In a sector where hardware can become obsolete quickly, this concentration in physical infrastructure creates impairment exposure if tech refresh cycles accelerate.
Some Interesting Liability Movement
"Other Current Liabilities" increased 45% year over year. Without detailed disclosure, this likely includes unearned cloud billings and similar obligations. Worth monitoring because rapid buildup in prepayment dependency can distort cash flow timing if customer behavior shifts.
The Segment Concentration Factor
Intelligent Cloud now drives roughly 40% of revenue with 29% growth, while More Personal Computing actually declined 3%. This isn't necessarily bad, but it does mean any cloud cyclicality hits the overall business harder than it would have five years ago.
The Sentiment Disconnect
Despite record profits, shares declined after strong Q2 results. When markets sell the news on beat and raise quarters, it often signals expectations have gotten ahead of near term reality.
None of this means the investment thesis is broken.
Microsoft remains a dominant business. But as value investors, we're supposed to see what others miss and understand what we're actually paying for at current multiples.
Even with these risks I still think it's a good stock to buy, especially in its role as the AI boom continues.
What do you think ?

EPS: $4.14, est: $3.92
Revenue: $81.2 billion, est: $80.2 billion
Make it make sense, Microsoft reported a great earnings report for Q4 2025 but the market did not respond well to it. But I think it is a good buy right now, basically it is currently on sale.

Projected EPS will grow far far faster than revenue bc of the buybacks at 1 percent a month. A pace that boggles the mind.
I'm not a pypl fanboy bc I think it's gonna take over the world. Rather it will maintain it's pace of beating inflation in revenue growth, somewhere between barely and solidly. And at a 10 pe it's priced as if it will never grow again.

pypl projected EPS is still growing , i really don't understand why pe ratio is so low.
also, while they can't compete with apple pay, i don't see other people compete with them in international small business owners' payment management either.
it is still pretty much the only popular way to send money from someone to his friend in another country

That is the ultimate question. The 'Dead Money' risk is valid.. Cheap stocks can stay cheap longer than we can stay patient.
We see two specific catalysts for the re-rate:
1. **The 'AI Attribution' Reveal:** Right now, the market prices Firefly as a defensive cost (CAPEX). The inflection point hits when management explicitly breaks out revenue/ARR *attributed* to Generative AI upsells. The moment the narrative flips from 'AI is an existential threat' to 'AI is a pricing lever,' the multiple expands.
2. **The Buyback Floor:** At these valuations, the buyback program is highly accretive. They are effectively retiring \~2-3% of the float annually. That creates a mechanical floor on EPS growth even if the top-line slows.
Totally fair on the 'better plays' point. If you’re hunting momentum or hyper-growth, this isn't it. We view this as a 'Compounder' play lower beta, high cash flow yield.
If you are interested, I’ve attached the full research note below. It covers all my assumptions and the risk checklist in detail.
[Full Analysis](https://open.substack.com/pub/jarviscapitalresearch/p/adbe-buy?r=6qs9m8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web)
(No paywall, just the raw data)

- The past 16 quarters, when PYPL closed below $60 prior to earnings, it traded up 2 out of 2 times, with a 6.4% and 6.5% gain.
- When PYPL trades $70 prior to earnings, it closed up following earnings 4 out of 5 times. The single call where it fell post earnings (Q4 2023) it was at $63.24, and management gave a very pessimistic guidance of 0 EPS growth the following year. When you consider stock buybacks + the fact that they reported a 2% account decline, this suggests pricing the market was pricing in a overall net income decline at a price of $57.78.
- When Paypal trades above $70, it closed DOWN after earnings 8 out of 11 times
Therefore, we can conclude:
- A price >$70 generally prices in strong growth expectations going into earnings
- A price in the $60-70 range prices in modest to flat net income growth.
- A price in the $50-60 range prices in modest net income decline.
The reality behind this week's selloff is that the market is terrified of Paypal's 2026 guidance(the stock fell by 8% after both Q4 2023 and Q4 2024 earnings), and is therefore expecting a significant risk premium to justify holding through earnings. I suspect the market is using a discount rate in excess of 12% for valuations.
This is supported by doing a DCF analysis. If we do a DCF based on the bearish assumption of 4% 5 year growth, 2% terminal growth, a 12% discount rate prices it at $52.66, assuming which is very high risk premium. Using a more reasonable discount rate of 10%, we get a fair value of $79.78.
Even if we do a very bearish scenario of 1% 5 year growth, 0.1% terminal growth(which suggests declining users that are only offset by inflation and cost cutting), at a 10% discount rate we still get a fair value of $49.91, suggesting limited downside over the long term.
And even under the extreme assumption of 0% 5 year growth, 5% terminal decline(Paypal becomes obsolete), a 6% discount rate gives us a fair valuation of $50.73, suggesting that even if Paypal is a dud and fails to attract new users and existing ones gradually switch, it still provides a return in excess of US treasuries.

All of the gains of the last two years were lost. It’s down 23%, which for a stock with a beta of 1.07 is a pretty big deal.
Past performance is not a great indication of anything though. A forward p/e of 24x for an extremely high quality company growing EPS north of 20%? When you factor in the staple like consistency of their earnings, it’s a great buy right now.
Remember, the reason Microsoft always traded at a large premium over companies like Google and Meta is because the consistency of their earnings. In 2022 when every Mag 7 company’s EPS dropped, Microsoft’s went up.

EPS growth maybe not as aggressive as the market would have liked to see, but SoFi and Noto are notorious for sandbagging the guidance. Apart from that, strong earnings and a huge overreaction from the market as per usual. Seems to me that the larger institutions are seeing SoFi as a real competitor and are attempting to keep the price low for as long as possible, maybe before March S&P inclusion or until after Noto and co’s pay packet targets expire?

Nah. they haven’t turned a net profit for a long time, they are not even cash flow positive currently. the acquisition would be a net negative to EPS and the synergies aren’t even all there

All – just compiling the latest public pieces for anyone following the “big acquisition” narrative Cohen has referenced multiple times.
Key points from recent context:
1. GME cash position remains \~$8.8B (Q3 FY2025 ended Nov 1, 2025 – cash + marketable securities). That’s still the war chest everyone is watching.
2. The target profile Cohen described: undervalued consumer/retail company, meaningful EBITDA, turnaround potential, preferably with physical footprint/assets that could be optimized.
3. One name that keeps surfacing - Kohls $KSS in analysis threads matches almost every checkbox:
* Market cap \~$1.9B
* EV/EBITDA \~5.8x
* P/FCF \~2.3x
* \~$1.2B EBITDA run-rate potential
* \~1,100 stores + significant owned real estate
* \~36% short interest
* Recent quarterly beat (Q3 EPS $0.10 vs. est. -$0.18)
* Generating $500–900M annualized FCF in recent periods
4. Rough deal math at 30% premium (standard strategic retail range):
* Equity: \~$2.47B
* Debt payoff (total \~$6.7B): another \~$6.7B
* Implied total outlay: \~$9.1–9.2B → lines up very closely with current liquidity.
Post-transaction pro forma (simplified, debt cleared):
* Cash: near zero initially
* Total assets: \~$17B (heavy real estate & inventory boost)
* Debt: only GME’s existing \~$4.2B convertibles remain
* Equity: \~$6.8B (includes bargain purchase gain)
Upside case: real estate monetization + margin expansion + digital synergies could accelerate the path toward Cohen’s stated scale goals.Downside case: cash depletion leaves limited buffer if retail environment stays tough; integration risk is real. No filings, no leaks, no confirmation—just pattern matching from public data and commentary. Curious what others are seeing in the same numbers.

That means the bar isn’t good, it’s borderline absurd! That said, guidance implies a 30% revenue growth, 50% EBITDA growth, and 50% EPS growth. So the real question is - was the market expecting acceleration beyond that, or just derisking a crowded trade?