CVNA
Carvana Co.
stock NYSE

I get where you’re coming from. CVNA feels like a classic squeeze plus narrative trade that’s run way ahead of fundamentals. Once momentum fades, the balance sheet and unit economics start to matter again, and that’s where the risk shows up. I don’t think “to zero” is the base case, but I do agree the downside is asymmetric if growth disappoints or scrutiny increases.
CELH is the opposite setup to me. It’s actually executing, expanding distribution, and the brand momentum feels real. Valuation isn’t cheap, but at least the story is supported by margins and demand rather than financial engineering. Way less exciting short term, but much easier to underwrite long term.
Feels like a good example of how markets can reward very different things at the same time depending on time horizon and positioning.

Shorting silver is dumber than shorting CVNA.
When it runs, it runs. You better have deep pockets and a strong stomach, otherwise you will become insolvent before it comes back to earth.

Yes but how will shorts fare shorting CVNA next month? It’s a scam company and unbelievable that it got the s&p inclusion. Personally have no position. But I’ve mentioned in these threads before, and am seriously considering, shorting the stock exactly the amount I will indirectly own through the s&p 500. I want zero exposure to this pos.

CVNA is a zombie company walking. Hindenburg called it perfectly. The accounting tricks and related party nonsense will unravel eventually.
CELH though? That's the real deal. Energy drinks destroying soda market share.

Alright, hear me out before you downvote me into oblivion.
By Q4 2026:
BEARISH:
* Carvana (CVNA) goes from $440 → $150
BULLISH:
* Celsius (CELH) goes from $45 → $80
Two very different directions.
**CVNA:**
This thing has been resurrected from the dead already. Massive short squeeze, insane multiple expansion, hype + momentum carrying it way past fundamentals. But at some point, margins, debt, used car demand normalization, competition growing will show.
On top of that, Hindenburg Research has laid out some serious allegations!!!!!! a lot of people seem to ignore. Their report claims Carvana’s turnaround optics may be overstated, pointing to aggressive accounting, related-party transactions, and what they describe as questionable unit economics masked by financial engineering. Again, these are *allegations*, not proven facts, but they raise real questions about how “clean” the recovery actually is.
If growth slows even a little, or if scrutiny increases, CVNA will not get a soft landing.
CVNA COULD GO TO ZERO IF YOU REALLY LOOK AT WHAT THEY ARE DOING BEHIND THE BOOKS. It was about to go for BK in 2023.
not financial advice
**CELH:**
On the flip side, CELH feels like a long-term consumer brand compounding story. Distribution keeps expanding, international runway is huge, margins improving, and it’s actually profitable. Expect some volatility. $80 by 2026 isn’t crazy if execution stays solid and energy drinks keep stealing share from soda. They are also marketing towards healthy energy, as well as tapping into the female market with Alani Nu. There is a bigger thesis for Celsius but I feel like it is obvious to go deeper. Just buy, compound, and watch it grow. This should overtake Monster in the future.

If I had a working crystal ball, I would have bought CVNA in 2022 for $4/s and watch it rocket to 100 bagger (438 today).
But we don’t have a working crystal ball. So stay on track and keep investing in VTI/VXUS. In fact, CVNA is in VTI and did not join S&P 500 (VOO) until this month.

If you bought CVNA 5 years ago during one of the most insane bubbles ever, you'd still be up 60% after suffering through a literal 99% decline... just crazy

Scam companies playing for S&P inclusion on the way up like CVNA.

CVNA

PLTR NET CVNA SOFI SOUN BE were all “SHIT” stocks a year or two ago.