CI
The Cigna Group
stock NYSE

**Here's my setup:**
PLTR Current Price $145.60
ATM Straddle Cost $14.20 PLTR
Breakeven Low @ Expiration $131.40 -9.8%
Breakeven High @ Expiration $159.80 +9.8%
Implied Vol 14% Expected Vol Full Crush (vol points) 65 (simple calc using 4DTE and 11DTE straddles)
Delta $0.98
Gamma $4.52
Vega $12.20
Theta $-176.10
Post earnings median opening gap +/-12% with a 12.2% standard deviation.
68% CI move = +/-24.2%.
Full vol crush = -5.4% of stock price.
Crush adjusted move +/-18.8%.

**Implied move +/-9.8% - vs 18.8% - vol looks CHEAP!**
However, it's PLTR - and therefore a tough call. On paper, the straddle is cheap with implied nearly half of the crush-adjusted historical move. But $14.20, +/-10% move is still a big number to overcome, and PLTR has a habit big moves or not so big moves.

**Conclusion: Vol is just too cheap to sit on my hands completely, so I'm willing to take a shot.**
Lot's of ways to play this - my go to is defined risk (IC non-directional) rather than simply long straddle/strangle.
As always, the overnight move post EA is something I ignore, as the real price discovery occurs after the open in the morning. Until then, I'll be watching but not getting excited one way or another.
Update in the am after the open!

**Here's my setup:**
PLTR Current Price $145.60
ATM Straddle Cost $14.20 PLTR
Breakeven Low @ Expiration $131.40 -9.8%
Breakeven High @ Expiration $159.80 +9.8%
Implied Vol 14% Expected Vol Full Crush (vol points) 65 (simple calc using 4DTE and 11DTE straddles)
Delta $0.98
Gamma $4.52
Vega $12.20
Theta $-176.10
Post earnings median opening gap +/-12% with a 12.2% standard deviation.
68% CI move = +/-24.2%.
Full vol crush = -5.4% of stock price.
Crush adjusted move +/-18.8%.

**Implied move +/-9.8% - vs 18.8% - vol looks CHEAP!**
However, it's PLTR - and therefore a tough call. On paper, the straddle is cheap with implied nearly half of the crush-adjusted historical move. But $14.20, +/-10% move is still a big number to overcome, and PLTR has a habit big moves or not so big moves.

**Conclusion: Vol is just too cheap to sit on my hands completely, so I'm willing to take a shot.**
Lot's of ways to play this - my go to is defined risk (IC non-directional) rather than simply long straddle/strangle.
As always, the overnight move post EA is something I ignore, as the real price discovery occurs after the open in the morning. Until then, I'll be watching but not getting excited one way or another.
Update in the am after the open!

Looks more like KG than CI

I will get the third one. Highest CI cover.

Nice pass on not shipping V4 just because it won April.
I’d do both, but if I had to pick the next one, I’d block-bootstrap by week/regime rather than only reshuffling trade order. Plain resampling is good for CI around WR/avg return, but it breaks the clustering structure that probably matters most here. If V7 still looks good when you resample blocks of similar days/weeks, I’d trust it a lot more.
Order randomization is still useful too, mostly for drawdown and path dependency.