BHP
BHP Group Limited
stock NYSE ADR

Someone give me an update on BHP & FMG, I havent been around for a while

XOM, BHP, SITE, GCMG, AZPN

**Interesting thesis, but I'm skeptical this meeting is the catalyst you think it is.** Here's why:
**On the "catalyst":**
* **Meetings ≠ market-moving events** \- High-level diplomatic meetings happen constantly. Unless there's a *specific* deal announcement, the market usually shrugs
* **"Buy the rumor, sell the news"** \- If this meeting is publicly known and you're aware of it, so is everyone else. It's likely already priced in
* **RIO's diversification** \- Rio Tinto is a global miner. U.S.-Australia relations are just one small piece of their business. Iron ore to China is still their biggest driver
**On critical minerals:**
Yes, critical minerals are strategically important, but:
* What specific policy change are you expecting from this meeting?
* AUKUS is about submarines, not necessarily mining contracts
* Critical mineral agreements take years to implement - not immediate stock catalysts
**On the options play:**
You mention 27% IV is "relatively low" - but what's your actual trade?
* Are you buying calls ahead of 10/20?
* What strike and expiration?
* What's your exit plan if the meeting is a non-event?
**The real questions:**
1. **What's the actual mechanism** by which this meeting moves RIO's stock price?
2. **What's priced in?** The market knows about this meeting too
3. **Why RIO specifically** vs. other Australian miners (BHP, FMG)?
4. **Time horizon** \- You mention "long-term growth" but then reference a specific meeting date. Which is it?
**My take:**
This feels like you're retrofitting a bullish thesis around a news event. RIO might be a fine long-term hold based on fundamentals, but banking on a diplomatic meeting as a catalyst is speculative at best.
If you want to play it, maybe consider it as part of a broader commodities/mining thesis rather than a binary event play.
What's your actual position/plan here?

BHP better than FMG IMO. Has diversified mining - Copper, Iron Ore, Gold.

Right been a 3 year investor in BHP but just recently sold it, was looking at FMG due to iron ore and their green hydrogen

Iron ore/Copper stocks could be a safe play compared to Rare earth which has already pumped. BHP looks solid and pays dividends too. NFA. DYOR.

BHP Australian Iron ore producer, 30 billion in usd in 2024

Someone give me an update on BHP & FMG, I havent been around for a while

XOM, BHP, SITE, GCMG, AZPN

**Interesting thesis, but I'm skeptical this meeting is the catalyst you think it is.** Here's why:
**On the "catalyst":**
* **Meetings ≠ market-moving events** \- High-level diplomatic meetings happen constantly. Unless there's a *specific* deal announcement, the market usually shrugs
* **"Buy the rumor, sell the news"** \- If this meeting is publicly known and you're aware of it, so is everyone else. It's likely already priced in
* **RIO's diversification** \- Rio Tinto is a global miner. U.S.-Australia relations are just one small piece of their business. Iron ore to China is still their biggest driver
**On critical minerals:**
Yes, critical minerals are strategically important, but:
* What specific policy change are you expecting from this meeting?
* AUKUS is about submarines, not necessarily mining contracts
* Critical mineral agreements take years to implement - not immediate stock catalysts
**On the options play:**
You mention 27% IV is "relatively low" - but what's your actual trade?
* Are you buying calls ahead of 10/20?
* What strike and expiration?
* What's your exit plan if the meeting is a non-event?
**The real questions:**
1. **What's the actual mechanism** by which this meeting moves RIO's stock price?
2. **What's priced in?** The market knows about this meeting too
3. **Why RIO specifically** vs. other Australian miners (BHP, FMG)?
4. **Time horizon** \- You mention "long-term growth" but then reference a specific meeting date. Which is it?
**My take:**
This feels like you're retrofitting a bullish thesis around a news event. RIO might be a fine long-term hold based on fundamentals, but banking on a diplomatic meeting as a catalyst is speculative at best.
If you want to play it, maybe consider it as part of a broader commodities/mining thesis rather than a binary event play.
What's your actual position/plan here?

BHP better than FMG IMO. Has diversified mining - Copper, Iron Ore, Gold.

Right been a 3 year investor in BHP but just recently sold it, was looking at FMG due to iron ore and their green hydrogen

Iron ore/Copper stocks could be a safe play compared to Rare earth which has already pumped. BHP looks solid and pays dividends too. NFA. DYOR.

BHP Australian Iron ore producer, 30 billion in usd in 2024