Z
Zillow Group, Inc. Class C Capital Stock
stock NASDAQ

First of all: I am not invested in PayPal yet, but the ongoing discussions about it motivated me to take a closer look and write down my thoughts. First, here are the 10K figures from recent years:
|Year|Revenue|Operating income|Net income|Net income change|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2022|27.51 bn|3.83 bn|2.419 bn|\-42%|
|2023|29.77 bn|5.02 bn|4.246 bn|\+75%|
|2024|31.79 bn|5.32 bn|4.147 bn|\-2%|
|2025|33.17 bn|6.06 bn|5.233 bn|\+26%|
If we use a simple fair value calculation assuming a risk premium of 10% and an expected net income growth rate of a) -3% b) 0% c) +3% per year for the next 5 years we get
a) Intrinsic value per share for -3% growth: $45.87
b) Intrinsic value per share for 0% growth: $60.29
c) Intrinsic value per share for +3% growth: $81.08
The stock price is currently $40.29, so even if PayPal does not grow over the next few years, the company is undervalued by almost 50% compared to its fair value, **it is right now even undervalued if the net income slightly decreases**. Okay we know that already, it was discussed over and over again, so what is new, is it a value trap, the next Kodak?
What's bad:
Paypal is integrated into over 30 million websites compared to \~2.5 million for Apple Pay and under 1 million for the Google Pay button. However, Apple and Google Pay are showing massive growth, and if the trend continues, they will gradually eat into PayPal's market share. On top of that PayPal plays virtually no role in Asia, which is dominated by Alipay and WeChat, and there are no signs that PayPal will be able to gain market share here so no growth to be expected in "emerging markets". From a market share perspective, the outlook is bad.
What's good:
"Buy Now, Pay Later" is popular, Klarna takes PayPal customers away at checkout; all it takes is one click on the "wrong" button. However, Klarna and other new payment providers first have to be integrated by merchants, while PayPal is already active on 30 million sites, which is a massive competitive advantage over new providers. PayPal also offers BNPL features, so it's easy for merchants to switch. In addition, Venmo is integrated in popular sites (DoorDash, Lululemon) and it's one of the most popular payment up for Gen Z and Millennials and the younger the target group, the more willing they are to spend money. And beside this, the data on who spends money on what is incredibly valuable, Visa and Mastercard make millions by selling credit card transaction data to market researchers and hedge funds.
What's promising:
The big question is: What does the future of purchasing goods look like? On which platform will products primarily be found, and which payment method will be used? Surprisingly, **AI platforms have been largely overlooked by the market as future points of sale**, even though it is only logical: If I search ChatGPT and Gemini for recommendations for e.g. a remedy for a sore throat and can also purchase a product directly on the platform without having to switch to another website, most users will simply do this. And how do people pay then? Well, there is the *Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)*, a solution built by OpenAI and Stripe to directly integrate product recommendations and purchase options into the AI platform. And beside Stripe Paypal is adopting ACP too: [Press Release: OpenAI and PayPal Team Up to Power Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce in ChatGPT - Oct 28, 2025](https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2025-10-28-OpenAI-and-PayPal-Team-Up-to-Power-Instant-Checkout-and-Agentic-Commerce-in-ChatGPT). If the theory holds true that users will spend much more time on AI chat platforms in the future and bots will also make purchases autonomously, Stripe and PayPal are in excellent positions. Of course, Google will route Gemini users to Google Pay, but OpenAI will be interested in offering its checkout platform agnostically. And ultimately, it's also a bet on how well PayPal can establish itself as the leading AI payment processor, because they won't be the only ones pushing into this direction.

Good point, luckily for IntTrader Germany and the US have an Convention for the Avoidance of Double Taxation with respect to Taxes on Estates, Inheritances, and Gifts
[https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Standardartikel/Themen/Steuern/Internationales\_Steuerrecht/Staatenbezogene\_Informationen/Laender\_A\_Z/Verein\_Staaten/2001-01-29-USA-Abkommen-Erbschaftsteuer-Bekanntmachung-Neufassung.pdf?\_\_blob=publicationFile&v=1](https://www.bundesfinanzministerium.de/Content/DE/Standardartikel/Themen/Steuern/Internationales_Steuerrecht/Staatenbezogene_Informationen/Laender_A_Z/Verein_Staaten/2001-01-29-USA-Abkommen-Erbschaftsteuer-Bekanntmachung-Neufassung.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=1)
This exempts US Stocks from US estate taxes (Artikel 9 of the convention)
so check if your country has this aswell.

Young people don’t use old people apps. Mets can steal it all, but FB and IG are still cringe to gen Z and A

I do think Snap is 💯 undervalued. 400 million DAU, ARPU steadily growing, and chokehold on Gen Z. But as I said not my thing.

So I've been trading spreads for a while and got tired of manually scanning for setups. Built a screener that combines a few things:
Basic idea: Find stocks that are statistically oversold but not fundamentally broken, with quantified downside risk.
What it does:
Runs through \~200 liquid stocks and scores them on:
Z-score (how many std devs from 60-day mean) - trigger at Z < -2
P/E ratio between 10-30 (filters out growth memes and value traps)
Monte Carlo tail risk - runs 10k sims to get P10 percentile
Volume >500k, vol <150%
Flags earnings in next 7 days
Spits out ranked list with scores, flags sector clustering risk (like when 13 tech stocks all trigger at once).
Would appreciate any feedback.

Gen Z aren’t big drinkers and neither are Millennials

I joined Jeff Z's option alerts three days ago. He only trades three indexes the SPY, QQQ and IWM. So far he has given me 4 winners with a one maxing out at 800% if you stayed in position to the end. He does claim he loses and tells subscribers to use a 50% stop. $2,995 for 3 years. 4 picks is a very small sample size but so far so good.

> Generation Z college students are reportedly arriving on campus struggling with basic reading comprehension, even difficulty processing full sentences, per FORTUNE
this sub will *never* run out of fresh members 🤣

This kind of almost unintelligible post being upvoted is actually bullish for $rddt (non-AI content, gen Z/A user growth)

I mean, institutions are loading up. They can drop it , but I think most likely they’re adding in preparation of Helios launch. No sense in dropping it only to all rush in Z

I think both are shit buy right now, BCH is know to dip to 100$ as it went that way in the last 2 bear markets
I don’t see any crypto doing anything amazing any time soon unless it’s some lucky coin like Z Cash where some rich people decide to randomly pump for no reason
But as far as naturally goin up, I don’t see BCH able to breach much more than 800$

Buying ETFs, I avoid single stock risk, so “bankruptcy” isn’t an option at least regarding the asset pool. So if an industry is seriously on the rocks, IGV am so embarrassed I can’t think of one for this moment, I buy $Z, then after a prescribed drop, $1.3xZ, and on until it bounces, 5 bite maximum. I’ve had leveraged ETFs go up in smoke on me so any security only gets up to say 20% of the portfolio. I employ the system more judiciously re: leveraged ETFs, but they can make insane $ if u have conviction. Of course I analyze performance drag (the mathematical price erosion inherent to the volatility of leveraged products) to make sure it’s built to last. CURE, the XLV proxy 3x healthcare ETF, almost doubled bottom to top recently, I had maximum conviction so rode it to a 40% gain in 12 weeks. That’s my ETF playbook, pt 1. 

You know Gold was only $35 an oz 40-45 years ago but most of you Gen X or Gen Z are not old enough to know that

A happened because of D. So therefore Z. Sums it up.

Just FYI these demonstrations are pointless.  I work in manufacturing and We have had automated lines that can do this way faster and better than whatever this guy is showing.  Pick and place and Z axis assembly have been automated for a long time 

They key is to sell when you make profits but don’t get greedy. When you turn a good profit EXIT! I sold enough silver when it was $110 and my shop offered me 105 because they had a buyer waiting and they sold it to him at 120 so everyone was happy and everyone got what they wanted. I paid $20-30 for it so I more than tripled my money. I sold 1/4 of my silver which was enough to make all my remaining silver free and it also paid for new tires on my Nissan Z, a vacation paid in full, and it also paid for all my Xmas presents I bought for many people. Again, don’t get greedy.

Check out silicon flow. They solved serving deepseek on Ascend almost a year ago. The key question is training.
Every AI company is hardware constrained - Z.AI's capacity issues are not surprising.

You realize even the best open source models need NVIDIA GPUs for inference, not just training? That’s why Z.AI was having trouble serving GLM 5.0, they said they were pushing their chips (NVIDIA chips) to the max. Market may still react but long term this is the opposite of bearish for Nvidia.

How about getting a job? Let X,Y and Z carry on with their life and their choices?

GME and Max P see ya next week on Dragonball Z