Z Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Yesterday hurt. There’s no denying it.
But this ain’t over yet.
This post is a plain-language explainer + a numbers-based check-in using publicly posted exchange/vault data as of late January 2026.
This post is not financial advice.
I did use AI to assist in the construction of this post, but this NOT a lazy copy and paste prompt. I put lots of time and energy into this and the only reason I could possibly compile all this data for you is thanks to AI. I have carefully reviewed and edited this entire post.
The goal here is to help newcomers understand what the “silver squeeze” story is actually arguing about — and what numbers matter (and why).
The entire “silver squeeze” debate usually collapses into one big question:
**If a lot of people suddenly insist on real metal delivery (instead of rolling paper contracts), is there enough readily available silver in the right places, in the right form, at the right time?**
To answer that, we have to understand two different market hubs (COMEX and London/LBMA), and a few terms that get thrown around constantly (open interest, eligible vs registered, allocated vs unallocated).
# The two big “price hubs”: COMEX and LBMA (what they actually are, and why each matters)
**COMEX (New York / CME Group)**
COMEX is a major U.S. futures exchange (part of CME Group). It’s one of the main places the world discovers a “benchmark” silver price because it has deep liquidity and standardized trading.
\- The key silver contract is “COMEX 5000 Silver.”
\- Each futures contract represents 5,000 troy ounces of silver.
\- Most of the time, COMEX is used for hedging and speculation, not for physical delivery, but delivery is built into the rules and DOES happen.
Why COMEX matters for the squeeze narrative:
If people are claiming “paper silver is over-leveraged,” COMEX is one of the easiest venues to measure that because it has visible open interest (paper claims) and visible warehouse inventories (physical stock eligible to settle delivery).
**LBMA (London)**
LBMA is an association that sets standards and supports the London bullion market, which is the huge global OTC (over-the-counter) spot/forward ecosystem. OTC just means “not a centralized exchange order ibook.” Trades are often done directly between institutions (banks, dealers, large clients) and then settled/cleared through London infrastructure.
\- Most large institutional silver trading globally references either:
(a) London OTC spot/forwards, and/or
(b) COMEX futures (especially for hedging and price discovery).
\- LBMA publishes monthly “London vault holdings” totals — basically how much silver sits in London vaults.
**Why London/LBMA matters for the squeeze narrative:**
Even if COMEX is the exchange “delivery pressure point,” London is one of the biggest real-world storage and settlement centers for wholesale silver. If a shortage is real, you typically expect stress signals to show up in London too, because London is where a lot of physical custody and OTC settlement happens.
**Key point (keep this in your head as you read):**
\- COMEX is an EXCHANGE with futures contracts and an explicit delivery mechanism.
\- LBMA/London is the center of a huge OTC spot/forward market and publishes vault totals, but it’s not “LBMA futures open interest” the way COMEX is.
# Futures contracts, in plain English (and why “open interest” matters)
A futures contract is a standardized agreement traded on an exchange to buy or sell something later at a price discovered in the market. But holders of a futures contract DO NOT necessarily always execute it to receive delivery. In fact, they often do not. Especially in gold and silver markets.
In COMEX silver’s case:
\- 1 contract = the option to order 5,000 oz of silver.
Open interest (OI) = how many contracts are currently still open (not closed out).
This number matters because it’s a good “how much paper exposure exists right now” measure.
Example:
If March silver open interest is 100,000 contracts, that’s:
100,000 \* 5,000 oz = 500,000,000 ounces (500 Moz) of paper claims still open.
Why open interest matters to the squeeze story:
OI is the pool of positions that could theoretically demand delivery if they stayed open into delivery and chose not to roll or close. It’s not a guarantee of delivery demand — it’s the potential pressure sitting in the system.
Important reality check:
Most futures positions DO NOT go to delivery. Traders usually:
\- close their position, or
\- roll it to a later month.
**So the squeeze question becomes:**
Not “is OI big?” but “how much of OI survives into delivery, and how many of those demand physical?”
# COMEX vault categories: “Eligible” vs “Registered” (and why registered is the stress gauge)
As a matter of fact, there are currently **more open interest contracts in place than there is registered silver** at the that’s ready to meet the demand. But there’s some nuance to that I need to explain.
COMEX warehouse reports split silver into categories. These two are the big ones:
COMEX “Eligible”
\- Silver bars that meet COMEX specs (correct purity, correct bar form, stored in approved warehouses).
\- But: NOT currently designated to be delivered against a futures contract.
\- Think: “It’s in the building and meets spec, but the owner hasn’t put it up for delivery.”
COMEX “Registered”
\- Silver that is eligible AND has been put into the “deliverable” bucket with the proper warehouse warrant/paperwork.
\- This is the inventory that can be used to settle futures deliveries without needing an owner to change their mind first.
**Why people obsess over “registered”:**
A delivery squeeze isn’t about whether silver exists somewhere on Earth. It’s about whether there is enough silver that is:
\- in the right place (COMEX warehouses),
\- in the right form (COMEX-eligible bars),
\- and actually committed/available for delivery (registered),
when delivery demand spikes.
Also: Eligible can become Registered.
\- If a vault owner chooses to make eligible silver deliverable, they can move it from eligible → registered (paperwork/warrants).
\- So eligible isn’t “fake.” It’s real metal — just not currently for delivery.
**Why this matters:**
If a lot of delivery demand shows up, the market’s first line of defense is registered.
If registered runs tight, the next question is whether eligible converts fast enough (and in enough size) to satisfy demand without forcing disorderly price behavior.
And if the comex market runs dry, where’s the rest of the silver? The LBMA.
# Understanding LBMA inventories: allocated vs unallocated — plus “encumbered” vs “unencumbered”
Now we shift to London concepts, because people often mix COMEX mechanics with London custody realities.
Allocated (London)
\- “Allocated” means specific, identified bars are assigned to you.
\- If you have allocated silver, you can point to particular bars sitting in a vault (conceptually: “those bars are mine”).
**Why allocated matters in a squeeze discussion:**
Allocated metal tends to be “spoken for” because it’s already assigned to owners (ETFs, clients, long-term holders). It exists, but it’s not automatically “available supply” that can be used to solve a shortage without someone selling or redeeming.
Unallocated (London)
\- “Unallocated” is not specific bars. It’s a claim on a pool (more like a bank deposit than a safe-deposit box).
\- Unallocated balances can be large versus the physical metal actually sitting there, because it’s credit-style accounting.
**Why unallocated matters in a squeeze discussion:**
When people say “paper silver is leveraged,” the unallocated system is one of the places that leverage can exist. Unallocated can function like a pool of promises that usually net out — until, in a stress event, too many people want “allocated / physical” at once.
Encumbered vs unencumbered (conceptual, because the public data is limited)
\- Encumbered = the metal (or the claim) is pledged/used as collateral, leased, swapped, or otherwise has strings attached that can limit free withdrawal.
\- Unencumbered = not pledged; freely available to the owner without another claim sitting on top of it.
**Why this matters:**
In a true physical tightness event, the difference between “silver exists somewhere” and “silver can move freely to meet urgent demand” becomes everything.
Encumbrances slow down or block mobilization.
Here’s the hard reality about public data:
\- We have GOOD public data on London vault TOTALS (how many ounces are stored in London vaults).
\- We do NOT get a clean monthly public ledger that says: “X% allocated, Y% unallocated, Z% encumbered vs unencumbered.”
So when people cite “how much of London is available,” they often use proxy estimates like:
“How much London silver is tied up in ETFs/ETPs?” because ETF metal is generally allocated and not floating inventory.
**Credible published reference points for “how tied-up is London silver”:**
\- LBMA Spotlight on Silver Investment (2021) stated:
\- End-2019: London vaults held 1,162 Moz and \~35% was “earmarked against ETPs.”
\- End-March 2021: London vaults held 1,143 Moz and \~58% was allocated against silver ETPs.
\- Reuters (citing Metals Focus estimates) reported:
\- End-September 2025: \~83% of London vaulted silver was held by ETFs.
The amount of silver in the LBMA vaults that is tied up has gone from 35% to 83%. This indicates real tightness is occurring.
A simple 5-year narrative using those published points (not a perfect month-by-month breakdown):
\- 2019: \~35% tied to ETPs (more potentially “free”)
\- 2021: \~58% tied to ETPs (less “free”)
\- 2025: \~83% tied to ETFs (much less “free”)
# The combined numbers right now (late Jan 2026): COMEX + London vault totals
Where we are at today:
\- TOTAL REGISTERED: 104,879,944.894 oz (≈ 104.88 Moz)
\- TOTAL ELIGIBLE: 301,006,861.846 oz (≈ 301.01 Moz)
\- TOTAL (eligible + registered): ≈ 405.89 Moz
Why this matters:
\- Registered (\~104.88 Moz) is the “ready-to-deliver” pile.
\- Eligible (\~301.01 Moz) is the “it exists in the vault and could be mobilized” pile.
\- Total (\~405.89 Moz) tells you there is a lot of metal in COMEX warehouses, but that doesn’t mean it’s all being offered for delivery right now.
This is exactly why a squeeze discussion can split into two camps:
\- Camp A: “Registered is small, so a squeeze is imminent.”
\- Camp B: “Eligible is huge, so delivery can be met if the price incentives are right.”
Both can be partially true — the question is how behavior changes under stress?
LBMA publishes monthly vault totals showing London holds very large quantities of silver.
But the key question is still “how much is floating vs tied up,” which is why the ETF/ETP share estimates matter.
(See sources for the LBMA vault spreadsheet + the 2021 LBMA Spotlight chapter with the ETP % points.)
6) Delivery reality check: “How much ever goes to delivery?” (and why Jan 2026 is notable)
Rule of thumb (plain language):
Most open interest never becomes delivery.
OI can look enormous because it includes hedgers/specs rolling, spread trades, and positions that will never intend to touch physical metal.
So the “stress test” is:
What % of OI actually stands for delivery in the delivery month?
**Hard data point from the most recent delivery month:**
January 2026 COMEX 5000 Silver futures deliveries (Month-to-Date report as of business date Jan 30, 2026):
\- CUMULATIVE DELIVERIES: 9,889 contracts
\- Ounces delivered: 9,889 \* 5,000 = 49,445,000 oz (≈ 49.45 Moz)
**Why this matters:**
49.45 Moz isn’t “paper turnover.” That’s actual physical settlement volume through the exchange delivery mechanism. If you get multiple months like that in a row, it changes the tone of the squeeze discussion from “theoretical” to “mechanical pressure.”
**And there’s more pressure showing still, despite the sell off yesterday:**
The same CME report shows early February 2026 silver deliveries already occurring (as of Jan 30):
\- 2,514 contracts (≈ 12.57 Moz) delivered for February silver.
This suggests physical settlement appetite didn’t vanish after January. It’s an early signal that delivery demand is not just a one-day anomaly.
But remember, it’s not just open interest that matters, it’s the real delivery that really matters. So what’s next?
# March delivery: how many contracts MIGHT deliver, and what would count as “stress”?
Step 1 — Look at March OI (paper claims)
As of Jan 30, 2026, March 2026 silver futures (SIH26) open interest was reported as:
\- 97,949 contracts open
\- Notional ounces: 97,949 \* 5,000 = 489,745,000 oz (≈ 489.7 Moz)
Step 2 — Compare that to COMEX “deliverable” registered
\- Current registered: \~104.88 Moz
\- March notional OI: \~489.7 Moz
So on its face:
\- ***March OI is \~4.7x the size of registered.***
This is the exact ratio people point to when they say “paper is way bigger than deliverable metal.”
But this DOES NOT automatically mean default/squeeze.
Because:
\- Most March OI will close or roll before delivery.
\- Eligible can convert to registered if owners choose.
\- Cash settlement and privately negotiated exchange-for-physical-style mechanisms can reduce visible pressure.
**So the real question is:**
What % of March open interest stands for delivery?
Scenario math (simple, but useful because it gives you “stress bands”):
If X% of March OI stands for delivery, implied delivery volume is:
\- 5% of OI: 4,897 contracts = 24.49 Moz
\- 10% of OI: 9,795 contracts = 48.97 Moz
\- 20% of OI: 19,590 contracts = 97.95 Moz (≈ the entire current registered)
\- 25% of OI: 24,487 contracts = 122.44 Moz (greater than current registered)
\- 30% of OI: 29,385 contracts = 146.92 Moz
**Why this matters:**
It shows exactly where the line is between “tight but fine” and “now you need a lot of eligible-to-registered conversion or inbound flows.”
At \~20% stand-for-delivery, you’re basically at current registered.
Above that, you either:
\- see registered expand (eligible converts), or
\- see visible strain (spreads/terms move, metal flows, or other mechanisms kick in).
# Is a squeeze happening?
The most honest answer with the data we can see:
\- We can say there is “tightness / stress risk” IF:
1) delivery volumes stay elevated (like Jan’s \~49 Moz),
2) registered inventory keeps shrinking, AND
3) a higher-than-normal share of OI demands physical in the same month.
But we cannot declare a confirmed “squeeze/default” from OI alone, because:
\- OI usually collapses into roll/close before delivery.
\- Eligible metal can be mobilized if owners are willing.
\- London has huge total stocks, though a lot appears tied up in ETFs (allocated).
**What would make it obvious (watch-list, in plain language):**
\- Registered falling fast into first notice while deliveries stay high (deliverable pile shrinking).
\- Persistent backwardation or lease/borrow stress (market paying up for metal now).
\- High deliveries across multiple consecutive delivery months (not just one).
\- Big sustained withdrawals from vaults (not just eligible / registered bookkeeping).
# We are actually seeing significant deliveries:
Now it’s really important to highlight than in January, we did indeed see a truly biblical level of delivery of physical silver.
January 2026, 9,608 silver futures contracts, representing approximately 48 million ounces of physical silver, were issued for delivery. This surge in physical delivery significantly impacted COMEX inventories, with roughly 33.45 million ounces being physically withdrawn from warehouses in just one week during mid-January.
Jan 2026 COMEX Silver Delivery Activity (Millions Oz)
The mid-January withdrawals represented approximately 26% of COMEX's registered inventory vanishing in a single seven-day period.
And who’s in control here? On January 7, JP Morgan issued 99% of the 8.1 million ounces in delivery notices for that day, signaling that major institutions were choosing physical metal over cash settlements.
Despite the heavy deliveries, January open interest actually increased by 1,431 contracts early in the month as traders rolled positions backward from March to January to secure immediate metal.
**Registered vs. Eligible:**
By late January, registered silver inventory (the metal actually available for delivery) dropped to approximately 107.7 million ounces, meaning the total open interest across all months was roughly 7 times higher than the available physical stock.
# Pulling it all together: What we might expect over the next ~4 months (Feb → May 2026), and why March is the “real test”
We already saw:
\- January 2026 delivered \~49.45 Moz (9,889 contracts) of 5,000-oz silver.
\- **February is already showing meaningful early delivery (\~12.57 Moz as of Jan 30).**
Why this matters:
If physical settlement appetite persists, March becomes the month where “large OI + delivery appetite” can collide.
***March is likely to be the real test month because it’s a major delivery month and OI is large***.
A reasonable “stress band” (based on the scenario math above):
\- If only \~5–10% of March OI stands: deliveries \~24–49 Moz (very doable, especially if registered + conversions hold up).
\- **If \~15–25% stands: deliveries \~73–122 Moz (this would seriously pressure registered unless eligible rapidly converts or metal flows in).**
\- May 2026 becomes the “second punch” if high delivery appetite persists, because repeated high delivery months is how you grind down inventories and force new equilibria.
**Bottom line:**
A squeeze is not “proved” today, but it is absolutely possible if:
\- delivery appetite stays elevated, AND
\- enough longs refuse to roll/cash settle, AND
\- owners of eligible/allocated metal are unwilling to mobilize supply without much higher prices/terms.
Finally, I encourage you to do all of your own research on these topics. I think if you do, you will find that the future case for silver is very bullish.
———
SOURCES:
COMEX silver contract size (5,000 oz) / contract info:
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.contractSpecs.html
COMEX daily silver vault stocks (“Silver\_stocks.xls”) — shows TOTAL REGISTERED and TOTAL ELIGIBLE:
https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery\_reports/Silver\_stocks.xls
CME Month-to-Date delivery notices report (includes Jan 2026 COMEX 5000 silver deliveries; run date Jan 30, 2026):
https://www.cmegroup.com/delivery\_reports/MetalsIssuesAndStopsMTDReport.pdf
LBMA vault holdings data spreadsheet (includes monthly London vault totals):
https://cdn.lbma.org.uk/downloads/LBMA-London-Vault-Holdings-Data-October-2025.xlsx
LBMA Spotlight on Silver Investment 2021 — Chapter 2 (ETP allocation % points: \~35% end-2019; \~58% end-March 2021):
https://www.lbma.org.uk/publications/spotlight-on-silver-investment-2021/chapter-2
Reuters (Metals Focus estimate: \~83% of London vaulted silver held by ETFs by end-Sep 2025):
https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/lbma-fixes-reporting-errors-silver-vault-data-broader-overhaul-2025-10-07/
March 2026 silver futures open interest reference (SIH26 OI shown on quote page; Jan 30, 2026 context):
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/sih26