TSLA
Tesla, Inc. Common Stock
stockNASDAQ

Volume can be farmed, so I’d watch two things instead. First, whether lending markets survive a real stress test, like a weekend gap where liquidations actually clear at sane prices. Until that happens, the 7.2% probably stays low because protocols will keep LTVs conservative. Second, honestly, a lot of the current growth might be non-US people using these as a cheaper brokerage for NVDA and TSLA. That’s real traction, just not DeFi traction. Repeat holders would prove that use case, while the DeFi share proves composability. They’re telling you different things.

TSLA

Method, since someone will ask. Straddle: Friday Oct 23 expiry, 367.5 strike, call $12.18 plus put $11.45 = $23.62 at Monday Oct 19's close, stock $367.82. It also carries Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday's normal trading, so it should shrink a bit by Wednesday's close. The chain puts the earnings day on its own at about 5.3%. Past quarters: each report's at-the-money straddle as a % of the stock, priced the night before (all 12 reported after the close). Gap = prior close to next open. Close = prior close to next close. 12 reports from Oct 2023 to Jul 2026, split 5 (2023-24) and 7 (2025-26). Full 12 quarters: the gap beat the straddle 5 of 12 and the close beat it 7 of 12. The average close to close move was 9.0% against 7.6% priced. That is the number that makes TSLA earnings look cheap, and most of it comes from 2023-24. Over 5 years (20 reports) the gap beat the straddle 8 times. The sell side P&L is just the move minus the straddle cost. It ignores the time value still left in Friday's options the day after the report, which flatters sellers a little. Seven reports is a small sample, and July shows how one quarter can erase three. IV: 30 day implied vol with the earnings day removed is 38.0%, 5th percentile of the past year (IV rank 13.5). 20 day close to close realized is 30.8%, and no earnings date sits inside that window (last report Jul 22). Disclosure: I build ApexVol, which is where the charts come from. Educational, not advice.

The earnings were brought forward to 1 day before TSLA earnings. This could just be that the report is good and they want to get it out ASAP. But many think that because it is a day before TSLA earnings, there could be a merger of the 2 announced. This would be bad for SPCX stock price initial as would be a huge dilution. So if that is the case, I don’t think it necessarily would show any clarity on AI demand. Of course these are just speculations and indeed if there is no merger, then the direction the market heads after could give us some clarity. All though I’m more interested in the reaction to META earnings myself.

I mean, yeah. TSLA is also grotesquely overvalued because of that guy’s cult of personality. It’s kind of amazing how influential Musk can be.

FUCKING TSLA TEASED ME ON FRIDAY PRE WHILE BEING UP 1200% ON CALLS JUST TO OPEN WORTHLESS SECONDS AFTER OPEN LIQUITED ME GUCKING TRASH STOCK OFC IT MOONED 4% YESTERDAY WITH ZERO PULLBACKS AND I DIDNT EVEN HAD 100$ LEFT FUCK ELON AND HIS MANIPULATING ASS BANKERS

nah he's the GOAT in terms of financial structuring no one tells him what to do since TSLA beat the shorts

What else, TSLA 😅

TSLA calls for a merger?

today is TSLA day I think. Also, when everybody is let down then it is the day that it goes parabolic

That’s why ive diversified my portfolio investing in advertisements (GOOG), Cars (TSLA), Semis (NVDA), Space (SPCX), Software (MSFT) and online Retail (AMZN)

Merging with TSLA?

SpaceX gonna pump off $32 worth of earnings TSLA merger rumors

Yes that shit was fucking insane. I lost a decent bit on that. TSLA probably my worst stock of all time I don't trade it anymore.

You guys remember Spring of 2025, TSLA had about the worst ER in the history of capitalism and it rallied like 70% over the subsequent three months? That could happen again. Its investors are absolute imbeciles.

https://preview.redd.it/oe0uaoj8fjwh1.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=50e6d926cb50e67101cf9708a8cf213c4bdb4b88 going to case study this against TSLA via puts going into earnings, if the setup tomorrow and Wednesday fit the presumable narrative

$TSLA would be $30. But at least more kids in Ukraine 🇺🇦 survive https://preview.redd.it/fm5y8675ejwh1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=47b65f1664cc2bad31d59a80ac7df5539ff59a15

That "+" is doing some heavy lifting. They'd come down to what their revenues actually justify. Everything else is near 20-30 PE. TSLA would have a long way to go to get into that range.

So excited for TSLA earnings. Found this little snippet on their website: “Say you have a dog, but you need to create a duck on the financial statements. Fortunately, there are specific accounting rules for what constitutes a duck: yellow feet, white covering, orange beak. So you take the dog and paint its feet yellow and its fur white and you paste an orange plastic beak on its nose, and then you say to your accountants, ‘This is a duck! Don’t you agree that it’s a duck?’ And the accountants say, ‘Yes, according to the rules, this is a duck.’ Everybody knows that it’s a dog, not a duck, but that doesn’t matter, because you’ve met the rules for calling it a duck.” \-TSLA Corporate Handbook

Whether SPCX, TSLA, APPL/GOOGL back in the day, etc. How do bogleheads resist the every-so-often interest in a single stock? Note: Not meant to hand-pick stocks that are now known to have done well. More so picking stocks I recall back when were interesting new companies that seems to be in the new aspects of tech revolution (tech, internet search/advertising model; iPhone, etc.). Do you, indeed, never buy individual stocks, or you are 95% index, and allow for 5% or some x% in individual stocks side bets? Thinking of purchasing SPCX in Nov/Dec (end of year amount I normally would invest in Index), but limit to 3% of overall investment portion of my nw. So, if I had $500K NW, I would only invest $15K in SPCX, then leave it for 10 years or so. Not worried if goes up, down, to zero, etc. But, interested in buying this. Does this forum know from life lessons that individual stocks are ALWAYS a suckers game, and index is the one way to go, or do you have allowance for smaller portions of portfolio in higher risk individual stocks like this?

In 2020, Tesla was still using an heuristic approach to FSD. It wasn’t until V11-12 in 2023-2024 that Tesla adopted the AI neural nets for actual driving. It was clear to even Elon that their original approach wasn’t feasible. The fact that multi-billion-dollar managed ETFs believed that it would work based on the information available back in 2020 is craziness. Given the complexity of edge cases around the entire world, there’s no way a generalized, non-geofenced product would emerge. That’s not revisionist history, it’s being rightfully skeptical at the time that the original plan was fruitless. Cathie didn’t see anything with a critical lens, she merely lucked out when Tesla actually started selling cars at volume at unprecedented margins during COVID. Her projections were (and still are) beyond reason. My being an asshole aside, 2024 was always a pipe dream if you were paying attention…as is evidenced by the stock dumping prior to the 2024 election that artificially inflated TSLA in a super bubble. Institutions didn’t believe it after the product wasn’t road-worthy for the general public for literal years of fruitless testing. Tesla nailed the methodology with neural nets based AI inference. But it’s still not a generalized approach and isn’t solved yet. I personally don’t believe it’ll be widely deployable until well past 2030. Until then, I’m deploying the bulk of my capital elsewhere.

TSLA META and LMT earnings all this week

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I think there is relatively little doubt that a merger is coming. TSLA take out probably around $480 you mentioned. I took a risk today in front of earnings But I will double down if it drops. Thanks good luck to you

SIRI, Ford, WMT, CART, T, TSLA