ROI
RiskOn International, Inc. Common Stock
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I expect the LLM bubble will pop before there's widespread blackouts. Trillions of cap ex chasing 50 billion in annual revenue, the end users aren't seeing much ROI, and the social costs in cognitive atrophy and "AI psychosis" are immense. Machines for confident logorrhea will be a tool for coders, brainstorming by creatives, and everything else will have little return. But we'll get an economic recession to rival that from the bubbles in railroads, radio, internet, or mortgage structured finance. Just from the half of the US equity market that hitched to this mirage, and will be revalued to non-AI profits, and the loss of wealth-effect spending.

OK, you need to answer one question: Are you trying to stack or collect? If you’re stacking, paying a ***small*** premium for sovereign minted coins in top condition is worthwhile. Call it the “pretty coin tax”. Since buyers consistently pay it, you’ll be able to charge it when you sell it. But that doesn’t move the needle much on the value of gold. Gold is gold. If you’re stacking, and you’re buying as close to spot as possible (which is the point of stacking) the ***main*** determinant of your ROI is … spot price. The end. If you’re asking about collecting, that’s a whole other animal. You’ve got to learn collecting as a market, pick a type to study, learn what coins actually retain a ***collectible premium*** over time. That’s the amount of money a specific coin is worth above and beyond its gold value, due to its specific mintage, scarcity, and condition. Certain coins are highly valuable in almost any grade due to their scarcity. Quite a few are scarce in the top grade only, and are so numerous in lower grades they’re practically spot coins. Condition alone doesn’t determine value. There are many years of St Gaudens $20 coins so numerous that even an MS65 is worth barely over spot; however, an MS65 1916-S or 1913-D might sell for twice as much. Modern bullion, you should assume is a spot coin by default. There are certainly modern bullion coins with numismatic value, but if you don’t know the market, it’s easy to get suckered by misleading claims. Most of all … sit and read and learn for a while. You sound like you’re here to make a quick buck and that’s not how gold works. Your “ROI” is either whatever spot does, and if it’s a collectible coin, what the collectible market does. Just pay attention and learn what they do.

I’m not even a dev and Claude and I just resolved a burning incident in like 4 hours that would have taken the entire team a week minimum. How do I quantify this ROI?

Yeah I also sold most of my ai related tech stocks recently, using the money to build a property I own into more affordable housing... If rather in vest in my community, something people need. The house is worth ~400k and will bring about 10% ROI in a year.... greed has everyone losing their minds, me included. I dont intend to be around for the bubble to burst. Imagine if people took half the money they f****** gambled on stupid stocks and put it into their own communities how nice the world would be

He pays for engagement, there’s just straight up no way that he doesn’t. Like everything else Alex put his money into it was a fruitless investment. Elon cutting him $5 a month isn’t gonna flip that ROI positive.

My opinion is in touch since its my opinion lol wtf... Let me ask you this, how many people at your institution was using AI in 2020? How many people at your institution are going to be using AI next year? Maybe your opinion at you institution is out of touch because its very possible that your institution is limiting token usage, but token costs are going down which will allow greater volumes to be used at roughly the same price. Just because the big boys are using less, doesnt mean usage will go down. There are thousands of small, medium, and large companies out there that may not be using it yet. They could easily start using it. Governmental organizations, universities, research outfits... I already know of governmental organizations paying premium subscriptions for Copilot already. Conversely, the limits on token usage could be lifted in a year. Some businesses might find that it was actually a net benefit to the bottom line to have higher or unlimited usage amounts. You also need to consider the compute required to do other things like autonomous driving, robotics, medical research. Yes, I recognize that we wont have AV vehicles for each and every person next year. ***What AI companies are charging isn't coming close to the cost of infrastructure and compute for these tools. It's a totally unsustainable model. So while people are using it, they are using it in incredibly inefficient ways*** Yes that may be true for OpenAI and Anthropic right now. But the way investment cycles work is you typically spend the money on infrastructure before you even see a return. A return on investment of 100% where you get back all you spent in 1 year is near impossible, so yes AI companies will spend more on the cost of infrastructure than they make. An ROI of fucking 10% of capital spent on AI infrastructure today is not a terrible return. That means you wont get your initial investment back for another 10 years!!!! That 10% assumes no pricing growth of that incremental amount of compute capacity. That is still more than the majority of companies cost of capital. My question to you then, these companies have been around for 4-5 years and they really started to invest in infrastructure the last 2-3 years, it takes a 3-6 years to get a data center up and running... What is a sustainable model? If they cant make any money on their invested capital for 3-6 years because thats how long it takes, what are they suppose to do? They have to eat it for 3-6 years and make no money on their investments. Then at year 3 or 6 if their ROIC is higher than their cost of capital, I mean thats not a bad deal. Yeah I am not arguing or making the point we are not in a bubble. We are also in a Space bubble with SpaceX, Rocket Lab, ASTS Mobile, etc... We have a bubble in cybersecurity stocks. The problem with the word 'bubble' which is exactly what you are eluding to in your sentence is people define bubble as an unsustainable growth in an industry or technology that WILL pop and the resulting pop WILL crash the economy. Bubbles dont have to pop and cause a crash to the economy. They can deflate without significant destruction to the economy.

Mate, that is where money is made. You could have said the same thing when I bought AMD on tariff day. +500% since. The market is not efficient regardless of what your finance professor says, never has been and never will be as long as humans are in the loop and making decisions on emotion. It looks like the majority of people have no idea on the length of time between capital outlay and revenue generation time, so they think AI has no ROI and neoclouds won’t have revenue to cover their costs. It’s not only wrong, you can look at the take or pay contracts that cover their debt financing and do the math. Cost of capital increasing doesn’t make the ROI negative, it pushes a 2.5 year payback to 3-3.5 years. Find a company not using tokens, I will show you a company who won’t be competitive for long. Even in the event OpenAI and Anthropic stumble, tokens will be generated by a model (open source or not) and there is only so much powered compute available on the market. Demand will outstrip supply for the foreseeable future based on CURRENT model capabilities and CURRENT use cases. That doesn’t even factor in new growth vectors with next generation models.

Will AI change the world? Sure. Does that mean all capex debt is going to see positive ROI? Not by a longshot

ADMA | ADMA Biologics - Current Price: $11.09 - Market Cap: ~$2.5B - Bull Target (12–18m): $16–$18 - Bear Target: $8.50–$9.25 - Upside: +44% to +62% - Downside: -17% to -23% - Reward-to-Risk: ~2.6:1 🟢 - Success Probability: 65% - Expected ROI: ~+24% - Forward P/E: ~12–14x 🟢 - Debt-to-Equity: ~0.48 - Cash: $136M - Total Debt: ~$197M - Dividend Yield: 0% - FY2026 Revenue Guidance: $530M–$560M - FY2026 Adjusted Net Income: $170M–$200M 🟢 - FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA: $265M–$300M 🟢 - Q2 Revenue: $124.4M - Q2 GAAP Net Income: $37.8M, +11% YoY - Q2 Gross Margin: 69% vs. 55% YoY 🟢 - ASCENIV Revenue: $102.9M, +24% YoY 🟢 - Share Buybacks: ~5.3% of shares repurchased in H1 2026 🟢 - Price Trend: Recovering, but still well below previous highs 🟡 - Risk: Moderate-High - Conviction: 7/10 - Grade: B+ ADMA manufactures specialty plasma-derived biologics, led by ASCENIV, and the underlying business is considerably stronger than the stock's earlier volatility suggests. Rapid ASCENIV growth, expanding margins, real profitability, strong cash generation, aggressive buybacks and roughly 2.6:1 reward-to-risk make $11.09 a legitimate B+ setup, with competitive pressure in the broader immune-globulin market keeping it below A-range for me.

Gold doesn't all have the same ROI. There are coin shops that won't pay the same for an American Gold Eagle in BU condition vs scratched up condition. Coin shops that pay further below spot for generic 1g bars vs US Mint coins. Same for foreign gold. Not all gold is equal when it comes time to sell.

I recommend a relatively conservative portfolio for this investment horizon. You can hold some stocks and not just bonds, but be sure to assess your risk tolerance. 3-5 years is a tricky time to invest for, as you can leave a lot on the table (if you go all-in on cash-like investments) or get taken to the cleaners (if the market sours just before you sell stocks). Consider holding a mix of US and ex-US stock ETFs. All the usual options can be considered. Also consider value- or dividend-oriented holdings like VTV, VIG, and SCHD. I avoid SCHD to help minimize my exposure to state taxes on dividends. Bonds should constitute a large share of your portfolio. The biggest chunk of this will likely go into cash-like or ultra-short-term options (VBIL, SGOV, or a good MMF), especially as you get closer to the 3-year mark. Also consider short-term bonds like VGSH (treasuries) and VCSH (corporate). I like to think of VBIL and VGSH as a 2-tier structure. More VGSH when you are earlier in your timeline, and more VBIL when you are later in your timeline. If you live in a state where taxes need to be taken into consideration, consider an ETF that further reduces tax exposure. For example, since I live in California, I hold VTEC. Its tax exemption makes the yield very competitive. However, VTEC's average duration is \~7 years compared to \~2.7 years for VCSH and \~2 years from VGSH. This part of my portfolio has really taken a pounding in the past few months. At most, I should have invested in VGIT (\~4.8 years). Learn from my mistake and keep an eye on average duration. Additional thoughts... (1) A friend of mine has a bond ladder instead of bond ETFs. It's a good way to avoid fees if you know what you're doing. (2) HYSAs and CDs are alternatives to VBIL/SGOV/MMFs. Shop around and see what yields the highest ROI relative to your comfort level.

That’s quite helpful thank you to hear how you invest. I’ll list my research & reasons below. It’s mostly so it’s diverse across all. I do need to have more of a this how much of each I’d like my portfolio to be. Probably 75% FTSE All work, 15% developed Europe & 10% or less of emerging markets since it’s the riskiest. **Vanguard FTSE all world** \- tracks all world (3500+) so most diverse tho 60% USA. Global exposure as tracks all types of markets. High potential long term growth. Low expense ratio **FTSE Developed Europe** \- invest in 500+ companies & Europe economy exposure inc UK. Good 5 year ROI of 10% **FTSE emerging markets** \- taps into other countries like Taiwan, China & India so diversifies my portfolio. More growth here but more risky so would contribute the least here \^ accumulating for all

Fair that Meta is the one to watch, but I'd be careful with "proof of ROI", because Meta doesn't sell AI as a line item. If it shows up at all, it shows up in the ad engine, so I'd look at ad pricing and impressions more than any "AI revenue" number they give. What makes me nervous is the other side of the ledger. Meta has roughly $700 billion of purchase and lease commitments, and those are fixed bills. Revenue is ad auctions that have to be won again every day. In a normal year that's fine. If an ad downturn like 2022 lands on top of those bills, cash gets squeezed fast. The ad business looks healthy right now, but that's the mismatch I'd keep an eye on. On 2027 capex, the guided range I've seen is $130-145 billion a year. One analyst floated about $225 billion this week and the stock slid nearly 4%. So the market is already flinching at the number, and I don't think "raise it and everyone follows" settles things the way it would have a year ago. Funding costs have moved with the 10-year now above 5%. I'd also push back a bit on forgetting CoreWeave. Meta has a $21 billion agreement with them, so they're partly the hyperscalers' overflow. CoreWeave's bonds are yielding 15-16% now. I agree they probably can't cause the crash alone, but they're where the financing stress would show first.

Companies care about ROI and they are not realizing the returns so they reduce the investment. What do you mean there is no compliance? Compliance in the context of AI ultimately boils down to a person or persons, even with the best models.

They all have the same ROI: You buy them at a small percentage below or above spot depending on coin and you sell them at 1-2% less than that when you sell them. Gold is gold, doesn't matter. If you want more ROI, you need to find collectables that have a serious premium over gold value and pray that this is going to be higher in the future.

wont say much about myself but here’s my advice: go to a good cegep (marianopolis, dawson, brebeuf, john abbott), then after your first year you can apply to ontario universities and get into waterloo SE/CS/Math (it’s expensive compared to qc but high risk high reward), most people get normal companies their first coop term like banks, then move on to bigger tech companies in canada, eventually getting an US internship, at which point you’ll be in your junior year and be eligible for roles at quant firms. at the same time you need to win math and competitive programming competitions, USACO, math olympiads, codeforces. learn python, c++, rust, other languages have low ROI. build tailored projects for quant like order book engines (they love that). land a junior year internship at a quant firm and grind for the return offer. good luck!

Exactly. Like saying “dot.com” isn’t going anywhere in 2001. True, but market hype exceeded valuations. Current valuations are much healthier now than in 2001, however the ROI still needs to be proven before prices hold or climb further imho.

ROI isnt a great metric on its own. You should consider: Premiums: at purchase and at sale. Buying higher premium coins now could result in a premium loss at sale if there is a run up. Stay away from novelty high premium stuff. Market: Sov coins typically are much easier to sell vs bars or novelty pieces. They trade for slightly higher premium, but imo thats worth it for the better market and they tend to hold that premium. If you want to have Sov coins without paying lots of prem, look at 20F or Brit sovs. If you want easiest to sell/highest prem, get AGE. fractional or ounces: Similar to above points, fraction has a larger market of P2P buyers while larger items you may have to rely on shops/vendors. But then you are relying on fractional to hold premiums. For example 2.5$ pre 33 Indians are a fan favorite, but with a large premium. The 'gold' standard for fractional seems to be 1/10 AGE. 20f have a good market and low prem, once again, but wont sell as quick as AGE or Indians. If you stick with 'good' stuff, the ROI is a trivial metric and just depends on the movement of spot over time. Stay away from novelty markets (GB, anything with an overly ornate mount). Pay for gold mostly, any premium is paying for underlying market. Dont pay for pretty mounts. You could argue for/against pre-33. Vendor base premiums make it a bad value, but if you can get a good deal at shows/auctions, it makes more sense. No one really wants $5 and $20 liberties, any everyone wants Indians and st gauds, but the premiums reflect that. but paying a lot of premium for the current market is a good way to lose premium in later years when markets change.

It’s a bull trap. Society don’t need high end rogue AI-models anymore. Those breaking laws nowadays hacks many institutions without knowledge Current models good enough for performance improvements of 99.9% population. No need to spend next 5 years, until get ROI from last 4 years spending As AI debt load collapse many banks and many funds. Spending slow down. No new spending means, semiconductors crash hard 70-80% correction

Just trying to get Anthropic to an IPO so they can get some sort of ROI

>Can I expect the Vanguard S&P 500 to net me 4% interest rate every year? A quick terminology correction. The kinds of investments which return an interest rate are Bonds (Government Bonds\*), Treasury Securities\*, Certificates of Deposit\*, High Yield Savings Accounts, Money Market Funds, Fixed and Indexed Annuities. If you invest in a stock ETF, you will notionally see a value representing a hypothetical ROI displayed on your account. That is an estimated ROI using the assumption that you sell right now. An Interest Rate and a ROI are not the same thing. Not all interest rates are guaranteed, but there are investment vehicles that have guaranteed interest rates. The better way to state the premise is "Can I expect a 4% ROI every year from the Vanguard S&P 500?" And mathematically the answer to that is no. You can't expect any exact number on any given year of the S&P 500. Individual years rates of return are more or less random. You can expect the AVERAGE of all years over a ten year period to be 13% to 15%. But longer term averages are never applicable in the individual case (one year at a time).

Re spacex....you aren't understanding what im saying. If OAI and ANT run out of money its because the capital discipline is insufficient to meet investor expectations. I.e investors have said: "you spend too much on AI, the ROI is not now or in the reasonable future going to work for us, no more money for you" They will the turn to Google who is also spending obscene amounts of money, and say, "AI isnt working out, stop investing in it" they dont care where the money is coming from PE, internal coffers, etc.. Once that happens, Gemini no longer gets training runs, no longer gets DC space, no longer gets investment in TPUs. It may limp along but as a shell of its former self. I dont think I ever implied that nvda selling at a lower price is bullish or bearish. I would argue the *reason* they have to sell at a lower price is bullish/bearish...not the price itself.

It’s never been about ai’s value, it’s always been about the ability to make profit off it, and so far ROI is looking nothing short of apocalyptic bad

Wonder how much of that ROI is actually showing up in the numbers yet.

The coins that have the highest ROI potential is whatever you can get closest to spot. You can often get 20 franc LMU near or at spot sometimes or US $5 or $10 modern commemorative gold coins. As for all the popular bullions coins you listed, Krugerrands 1 oz often gets you pretty close to spot and when you sell it, it might be at spot or slightly below spot.