ROI
RiskOn International, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Thanks for the feedback. Regarding the multiple celestial is exposed to the AI trade and I think right now there's real concern that the near term growth and margin expansion are unsustainable so 13x feels feels like a significant margin of error. Moreover, all I really need to do is to sock to say flat to generate that 65% ROI.

Is that when BTC was steer peer to peer in the white paper? Relax guy, I’m sure you’ll make a nice ROI on your half BTC

Looking at the two trade details at the bottom, your ROI % is really low. You’re investing a ton of money for a tiny return. I would look at increasing that.

You are deluded if you cannot see what is happening here. They have no moat. They are not going to produce ROI for the VCs. They are trying to gain a moat through regulatory capture, and they are softening up a potential taxpayer baghold.

NASDAQ as a whole has gone up a lot. This ETF actually gave a higher ROI because of the demand in India. I tried buying it but they stopped issuing new units because of limitation on foreign investment for funds. The demand is what's pumping the price.

Das ist kompletter Schwachsinn. Natürlich kann man mittels historischer Daten einen Erwartungswert für den ROI ermitteln. Warum werden hier Falschaussagen geupvoted.

You said,
> Nvidia from 2022-2024
Now you say,
> Q2-Q4 2022
You realize that's not the same thing?
> The reason for this is entirely because of interest rates. B
Yes, I know. I obviously know that. Lol. You said they're safe or never lose money or only stocks lose money or whatever and 30 year treasuries are down 63% in real terms in the last 6 years. I was just pointing out that bonds can lose money too, especially inflation adjusted.
> You're cherrypicking success stories.
No. I'm pointing out that ignoring growth is moronic. I'm simply stating obvious examples of that. This entire thread, all I've been saying, is you can't ignore growth. If a company generates massive earnings and then reinvests them because they think they can get 20% ROI, and then don't pay a dividend, you are a massive moron if you go, "oh, they only yield 0% while treasuries yield 5%". You ignored an enormous part of the upside of owning equity.

Covered calls and puts have been delivering a ROI over 2%/month for quite some time.

I get why some people are against props and I’m not saying they are the best thing ever. But they genuinely are a great way to get funded for a live account and just a great form of ROI. I wouldn’t recommend dumping money into them if you aren’t able to consistently execute your strategy, I personally didn’t start until I was comfortable with a system I backtested for hours upon hours.

Worked for 14s
Yes. I built this using the latest available Alibaba financial data and updated the model for the August 2026 $10.2B equity placement, the current AI investment cycle, cash/debt, and dilution.
BABA DCF — base case
Alibaba generated $148.4B of FY2026 revenue, but FCF fell sharply because of AI/cloud and quick-commerce investment. As of June 30, 2026, Alibaba had $69.9B of cash and liquid investments.
I use the current analyst revenue estimates for FY2027–28 and then taper growth. Zacks currently estimates FY2027 revenue of $166.7B and FY2028 of $184.3B.
Fiscal year Revenue Growth EBIT margin FCF
2026A $148.4B — 5.0% negative
2027E $166.7B 12.3% 8.0% $2.2B
2028E $184.3B 10.5% 10.0% $7.2B
2029E $200.9B 9.0% 12.0% $13.1B
2030E $216.9B 8.0% 14.0% $19.8B
2031E $232.1B 7.0% 15.0% $24.2B
2032E $246.0B 6.0% 15.5% $27.9B
Key assumption: Alibaba's current huge AI capex eventually produces operating leverage. This is the critical assumption in the valuation. In the June quarter, FCF was actually negative $6.6B, while Cloud revenue grew 45% YoY and Cloud EBITA margin reached 12%.
DCF assumptions
I use:
10% discount rate
3% terminal growth
20% normalized tax rate
D&A ≈ 5% of revenue
Capex declines from 10% of revenue in 2027 to 6% by 2032
1% of incremental revenue for working capital
\~2.49B ADS equivalent shares after the new share issuance
Approximately $30.7B net cash after debt
No heroic assumption for future buybacks
The new placement is important: Alibaba sold 710M ordinary shares, equivalent to about 88.75M ADS, raising approximately $10.2B. That creates roughly 3.6% dilution, although the proceeds are intended for AI investment.
DCF result
The present value of 2027–2032 FCF is approximately:
$62B
Present value of terminal value:
$232B
Therefore:
Enterprise value ≈ $294B
Add net cash:
Equity value ≈ $325B
Dividing by approximately 2.49B ADS:
DCF value ≈ $130/ADS
That's before applying a China/geopolitical discount.
\---
China/geopolitical discount
Rather than pretending geopolitical/regulatory risk doesn't exist, I would explicitly model it as a discount to the DCF equity value.
Geopolitical discount Adjusted value
0% $130
10% $117
15% $111
20% $104
25% $98
At the current \~$113.24, the market is therefore quite close to my 10–15% geopolitical-discounted DCF range.
The most important sensitivity
The valuation is highly dependent on Alibaba actually converting its enormous AI spending into FCF.
If Alibaba eventually gets to roughly 15–16% EBIT margins and FCF approaches $25–30B annually, the DCF can support considerably higher prices.
If AI capex remains extremely high and margins remain around 8–10%, the valuation drops substantially.
Alibaba itself has committed to a very large AI infrastructure investment program, while management has indicated an expected return/payback period for the AI investments.
My DCF range
Rather than treating $130 as a precise target, I'd frame the model this way:
Bear case: \~$85–100
Base case: \~$105–120 after China/geopolitical discount
Bull case: \~$140–175 if AI monetization and margins substantially exceed the base assumptions
At $113, BABA is therefore sitting around the middle of my modeled risk-adjusted range.
One important point: the DCF is more sensitive to terminal FCF and margin recovery than to FY2027 EPS. That's why the earlier 15× FY2027 EPS calculation looked less attractive than the longer-term DCF.
If you're considering buying BABA, the next useful calculation is a bull/base/bear DCF with explicit AI ROI assumptions, showing what BABA would be worth if AI produces 10%, 15%, or 20% returns on the planned \~$56.5B AI investment.

you think thats a flex until they ask you to compare ROI

2025 ROI: 70%
2026 ROI YTD: 35%
i've earned the right to say finna

They are selling it because it's time to move on.
If you brought 10 kg gold in 2001 it will cost you 43 lakhs.
If you sold it in 2026 you'll be able to sell it for 15 crores.
But why sell it? why not hoard it for say another 20 year, it is sure to rise after all.
SBI brought NSE shares for less than 1 rs per share,  now they are selling it for 1785 times profit,  also it's not like they are selling their whole holding, they are selling less than 5 percent of it and getting a lot of cash for it.
It is good at existing price as it can give 10X returns in 10-15 years to retail investors, but it's not going to give another 1000X return ever, so why not just exit and invest in another company that might give same ROI in a few decades.

**Hey guys, I can't keep up with replying to you all, but I just shared my thesis with you all. I genuinely believe this stock is a no-brainer.** To summarize everyone's concerns and questions. The stock is a deep discount. I didn't recommend this stock at $3.80, the initial price at which I bought 3000 shares of it, because the discount to me seemed like about 35% from its fair value. The stock has since fallen by 27% from the $3.80 to a 52-week low of $2.76. I think there is enough margin of safety to invest at these valuations. Their business has improved a lot compared to the past, and it has created a whole new ecosystem of a great customer experience to create a moat around it. They have come this far by proving net profit after years of investment and excellent capital allocation. Their management's execution is great.
**Some people are mentioning the 8% commission instead of the 20% commission for the ride-sharing business in Indonesia. That is false.** These guys clearly don't know factual information and mix things up to create false information. The 8% applies only to two-wheelers and not the four-wheeler vehicles in Indonesia. Anthony has mentioned this clearly in the last earnings call. A quick search can clarify this misinformation. Despite this, the management has raised their guidance because they're finalizing the Foodpanda deal by late November. Their strong growth of 22% compared to other giants like Uber's 11% is another indication that this company is in hyper growth mode. They are a cash-flow-generating machine with hyper growth.
**As for some guys mentioning reckless buying.** I would have agreed it if their acquisition didn't grow their revenue, cash flow, or if the business stagnated or if it wasn't integrated with their system. Their financial services revenue actually grew by 59% in Q2. This includes Stash, GXS Banking, and Atome will probably deliver the same. Anthony Tan has done a great job with all these acquisitions because he is not creating silos by buying random companies. He is actually buying stakes and owning these companies to integrate them into Grab's Superapp to give customers a wholesome experience, from taking a ride to shopping for groceries and services, to their day-to-day banking and financing needs. This is actually a smart strategy which incentivizes people to use the same app to do their day-to-day tasks with ease so they don't have to download and use multiple apps to do multiple tasks. He is trying to get customers hooked in a way that they use Grab for their everyday needs.
**As for autonomous vehicles,** they have already operated those in Singapore and are scaling it in mass. The SEA countries is basically their home turf and their services are highly localized with a personalized easy to use Superapp. This was the reason a giant like Uber got beaten to pulp in their own game because they couldn't compete in margins and volume. I'd say the next logical market for Grab looks like Europe and South Asia as they can easily take this proven model and try to compete there with cost effective and a highly integrated superApp. I own Google but I don't think Waymo can scale faster than Grab given that the SuperApp lives deep in Singaporean culture. They use it everyday and then Google can't compete on margins with Grab. Just like Uber they'll only be doing exibition rides after 2028 and maybe send 5-10 AVs.
**As for meme stock holders, SYBAU!! Keep buying your GME or whatever it is. Ken Griffin is watching you all. He knows how to crush cockroaches. So think about this stock and don't cry when he does it again.** 🥱
I wouldn't have recommended this stock before if it was a declining revenue company with a deficit or loss running on their balance sheet but to my surprise this seemed like a no-brainer at this price since I believe there is enough discount margin to invest in this stock. I would say buy if this fits your risk appetite. This seems way logical than an already matured company like Uber who is struggling to increase it's revenue growth rate. This will surely be the next Uber of Asia and probably Eurasia too.
**Disclaimer:** See how this fits your investment profile and invest accordinly. Like I mentioned, I personally hold 15K shares of this stock. Even if it doubles or triples in the next few years. You can easily beat the index or get a higher ROI with limited downside. If you have any questions let DM me. Don't feel pressured to buy just see how this fits into your portfolio. It might be a good stock to diversify your portfolio before the stocks jumps above $3 bucks in the next few weeks. I have a few more great buys on my mind but it's not a multi-bagger.
Cheers 😎

Do you think there is enough capital available for the mag7 to keep buying more every year? And do the mag 7 have the ROI to continue? I'd say no, however these things can drag on for a while

lolol, i was thinking about buying some calls around 1pm ET cause i thought maybe we would rally up EOD . . . like some 546 or 547s . . . super cheap, low risk, cost pennies . . . i talked myself out of it cause i have tried that maybe 5 times before and every time it just fades or flat lines . . . man, that woulda been a sick ROI . . .

Goat has a stronger ROI than BTC. Goatcoin incoming? Is that the proper sentiment? Lol ;)

If next week it is still declining, I'll probably start nibbling on shares to add to my position.
I like it for the non AI exposure, and a massive runway for growth. Current margins are compressing and don't think they've bottomed, but also believe that long term they will be higher. They are also adding debt which the market doesn't like and seemingly doesn't want to wait for the ROI. They are facing competition, but I think there's room for multiple competitors with how under penetrated the market still is.
Due to all of the above and the share price decline, that means multiples have compressed dramatically over the last couple of years. Management has also shown over time to think long-term about share holders, no dilution and some insider buying last quarter.
Probably due to my own price anchoring, I like it under an 80B marketcap, not too far down from the 90B currently

Yea it could be GG I’m not sure yet. They need to be able to provide ROI per $ of ad spend which may be difficult to do without the walled garden data but wouldn’t write em off just yet 

You partly gave the answer already yourself at the end, either you come to peace with it or the irrational part will consume your profits (and emotional state too) over time.
This week I missed two 50% ROI trades: on the first I was too greedy on the entry, so it ran away and I couldn‘t justify it with my risk management anymore, and the second poked my tight SL before sprinting towards TP.
Both were frustrating to see and if there is rational reason to adjust your strategies, then this will always be a way, but other than that it is what it is or you will spirale into bad habits. There will always be more opportunities to profit or learn