PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Another batch of company write-ups from Substack this week.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)
# Americas
**Long-term Investing** on [**Netflix**](https://sanj2f3.substack.com/p/netflix-nflx-9a7) (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$357bn) Bounced 14% after dropping Paramount-WBD bid and securing US$2.8bn breakup fee. Tactical catalyst trade, not a fundamental deep dive.
**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Deere & Company**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/riskreward-vs-momentum) (🇺🇸 DE US - US$171bn) Earnings update. Q1 2026 beat with guidance raise to US$4.5-5bn net income. Construction +34% and Small Ag +24% signal cycle bottom, but at 34x trailing P/E the recovery looks priced in.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Booking Holdings**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/booking-holdings-is-it-a-buy-at-15x) (🇺🇸 BKNG US - US$138bn) The most obvious bear case for Booking is AI disruption, and the market is pricing it in at 15x earnings after a 24% YTD decline. But Q4 room night growth accelerating at 9% with margin expansion suggests the structural threat is overestimated.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/mercadolibre-the-market-is-wrong) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech platform where Mercado Pago now processes US$200bn+ annually. At 45x P/E the valuation limits the near-term value case, but Rijnberk argues the market is wrong on the growth trajectory.
**Heavy Moat Investments** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://heavymoatinvestments.substack.com/p/the-company-that-divides-long-term) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) A second take on MercadoLibre, this time through a competitive positioning lens. 20/20 score across e-commerce, fintech, and logistics in Latin America. The premium valuation reflects dominance; this is one for patient capital awaiting a cheaper entry.
**AlphaSeeker84** on [**Apollo Global Management**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/apo-two-earnings-streams-one-mispriced) (🇺🇸 APO US - US$61bn) Dual fee-related and spread-related earnings model generates stable cash across cycles. 21x P/E looks fair, not cheap, for an alt manager with growing retirement assets.
**HighTech Investing** on [**PayPal Holdings**](https://hightechinvesting.substack.com/p/paypal-shares-after-the-crash-what) (🇺🇸 PYPL US - US$37bn) At 6.3x EV/EBIT and 8.7x P/E for a payments business generating US$5bn+ free cash flow, the market seems to be pricing in permanent decline. Potential M&A target or breakup candidate at these levels.
**Wealthy Readings** on [**Enphase Energy and SolarEdge Technologies**](https://www.wealthyreadings.com/p/a-second-breath-for-solar-names) (🇺🇸 ENPH US, 🇮🇱 SEDG US - US$6bn, US$2bn) Both solar inverter leaders down 85% from 2022 highs on inventory cycle now reversing. Enphase profitable with premium micro-inverter architecture; SolarEdge still loss-making.
**Cundill Deep Value** on [**PENN Entertainment**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/whos-next-penn-entertainment-penn) (🇺🇸 PENN US - US$2bn) The stock is down 90% from 2021 highs, yet the company still operates real casino assets across 28 jurisdictions generating cash. Activist HG Vora secured three board seats and is pushing for digital division exit and asset monetisation.
**Jam Invest** on [**Herbalife**](https://jaminvest.substack.com/p/n-and-i-73-i-see-i-see-what-you-cant) (🇺🇸 HLF US - US$2bn) 10x EV/EBIT with US$300m+ FCF visibility by 2028. Post-COVID distributor recovery gaining traction, but US$1bn net debt and the controversial direct-selling model remain overhangs.
**Waterboy Stocks** on [**Empire State Realty Trust**](https://waterboystocks.substack.com/p/empire-state-realty-trust) (🇺🇸 ESRT US - US$1bn) Trades at 0.63x NAV after a 45% five-year decline. CEO Malkin owns 13.3% with a strong balance sheet, but NYC office headwinds show no clear reversal yet. The valuation could stay depressed for a long time.
**Cundill Deep Value** on [**Gray Television**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/deep-value-report-gray-media-gtn) (🇺🇸 GTN US - US$528m) Local broadcast stations generating advertising, cable carriage fees, and political revenue. There is, however, a real risk that the US$5.8bn debt load overwhelms cash generation. High-risk deep value where the margin of safety rests on asset coverage, not earnings.
**ppinvest007** on [**Docebo**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/an-ai-first-lms-provider-at-a-fundamental) (🇨🇦 DCBO US - US$516m) Earnings update. AI-first learning management SaaS with 94% recurring revenue and 20.5% annual contract value growth. The US$60m buyback signals management confidence, though visibility at this scale remains limited.
**Enterprising Investor** on [**NSTS Bancorp**](https://enterprisinginvestor.substack.com/p/nsts-bancorp-stock-analysis) (🇺🇸 NSTS US - US$61m) Nano-cap community bank with virtually zero bad loans and heavy loss reserves from its 2022 listing. The old mortgage book yields 4.2% in a 6% rate world, squeezing profits until loans roll over.
**Prudent Profits** on [**Motorsport Games**](https://prudentprofits.substack.com/p/the-check-engine-light-is-off-why) (🇺🇸 MSGM US - US$20m) 1x sales post-turnaround from capital-destructive licensing to debt-free SaaS model. Unrivaled sim-racing physics engine, but nano-cap with unproven monetisation path.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**Uzo Capital** on [**Sanofi**](https://uzocapital.substack.com/p/who-am-iepisode-8) (🇫🇷 SAN PA - €96bn) TOP PICK The thesis is simple: 10-year valuation lows at 9x EV/EBIT and 12x P/E. Hidden €25bn firepower from Opella stake and Regeneron holdings behind a pharma business growing at 12%.
**Value and Opportunity** on [**Innoscripta SE**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/short-updates-innoscripta-and-nomad) (🇩🇪 1INN GR - €666m) German R&D tax credit SaaS platform with 61% EBIT margins and €12m insider buying. 10/10 management score from deep research, but illiquid and down 44% from its November high.
**Kubang Pasu Capital** on [**Broadpeak**](https://kubangpasucapital.substack.com/p/a-deep-value-play-on-videos-infrastructure) (🇫🇷 ALBPK PA - €29m) European video infrastructure provider at 0.7x EV/Sales versus 1.9x peers. SaaS transition via broadpeak.io gaining traction; serves 20m+ viewers. Already up 150% from the lows.
**Mr Deep Value** on [**Qwamplify**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/qwamplify-analysis) (🇫🇷 ALQWA PA - €9m) TOP PICK Rare find: 1.4x EV/FCF and 2.3x break-up value for a profitable French marketing firm. Net cash, founder-led, ignored by the market at €9m. One of the cheapest stocks we've seen.
# Asia-Pacific
**Cristian Leon** on [**Nadex Co**](https://cristianleon1200.substack.com/p/nadex-co) (🇯🇵 7435 JP - ¥8bn) At 0.4-0.6x P/B with a 575% earnings rebound, this is an incredibly low level for a Japanese industrial with net cash and negligible analyst coverage. The kind of overlooked recovery the market tends to ignore until it can't.
**Douglas Research** on [**DSC Investment**](https://douglasresearch.substack.com/p/korea-small-cap-gem-11-dsc-investment) (🇰🇷 241520 KS - US$123m) Korean venture capital firm holding 435bn won in four unicorn stakes against a 160bn won market cap. IPO catalysts for Kurly, Musinsa, and Dunamu are expected within 1-2 years. This quality is often overlooked in Korean small-caps.

A portfolio of Individual securities has a 0% management fee.
You will have to manage it yourself but it need not be complicated, just don't throw everything at PYPL and GME

It's unclear what value PYPL even has anymore. Banks literally do effortlessly that which was supposed to be there whole thing.

"just betting on credit stabilization and rate normalization"
Strangely narrow and specific bet. I'd expect that bet to inform part of a portfolio, like 10-20%, not the whole portfolios, and feels like you could express that bet with fewer positions - actually a couple of ETFs would avoid the idiosyncratic risk.
Either i) your bet is wrong, ii) your bet is right but your stocks don't express your bet, or iii) your bet is right but there are larger factors taking your portfolio down.
For i) it is arguably too early to say, but your bet certainly has not been correct "so far".
For ii) I see a bunch of names that have nothing much to do with your bet, or at least the connection is obscure. PYPL - this company's issue is strategy and competition, not "credit" and "rates"? ZM - what in the word does Zoom have to do with credit or rates? HIG - it is an insurance company, why aren't you focused on combined ratio and premium growth? RHI - is employment part of your bet?
For iii) this is the problem with basing a whole portfolio on a narrow bet. You can be myopically right, but miss the larger picture.

You might be wrong — but not for the reason you think.
Being down ~29% doesn’t automatically invalidate the thesis. The real question is whether you’re early… or structurally wrong.
From what you shared, this isn’t a traditional “value” portfolio. It’s a macro bet disguised as value investing. You’re effectively long:
• Credit normalization
• Lower volatility in funding markets
• Stable or falling rates
• No major recession
That’s not classic Graham/Buffett-style intrinsic value investing — that’s a coordinated sector rotation thesis.
Look at the concentration. You’re heavily exposed to regional banks (OZK, FHN, WAL, ZION, MTB, USB, etc.), consumer credit (COF, SYF, PYPL), and cyclicals (LEN, MOS, VLO, PTEN). If credit spreads widen or unemployment ticks up, correlations go to 1 and everything gets hit together.
So here’s how you could be wrong:
1. Rates stay higher for longer. Net interest margins don’t expand as expected, deposit competition persists, CRE losses rise.
2. Credit losses normalize above historical averages. Consumer names like COF/SYF get repriced lower.
3. Earnings quality was overstated. A lot of financials look “cheap” on trailing earnings that may not be through-cycle numbers.
4. This isn’t a temporary dislocation — it’s a regime shift.
The real question is: did you underwrite these businesses on normalized earnings power, or on the belief that multiples would mean-revert?
There’s a difference between:
• “This bank earns $X through the cycle and I’m buying it at 8x normalized EPS with a margin of safety”
and
• “This is down 40% and rates will normalize.”
The first is investing. The second is positioning.
Also ask yourself: if rates don’t normalize for 3–5 years, are you still happy owning these businesses? Or is your thesis time-dependent?
On the other hand, here’s the bull case for you:
If credit stabilizes and recession is mild or avoided, many of these names are trading at compressed multiples and could re-rate meaningfully. Financials historically rebound hard when fear unwinds. If you’re right on the macro backdrop, you’ll look very smart.
But right now your drawdown is telling you one thing clearly: your portfolio is highly factor-loaded to the same economic driver.
So the real challenge isn’t “convince me I’m wrong.” It’s:
Are you investing in businesses with durable competitive advantages and conservative balance sheets — or are you expressing a macro view through equities?
If it’s the latter, then your conviction should be in the macro thesis — not in “value.”
If you want, I can break this down further by sector and point out where the real fragility is versus where there may actually be asymmetric upside.

# Today is Monday, the 2nd of March
## Upcoming events for Monday, March 2nd
- Stock splits:
- AZLUY @ **1:75**
- BGAVF @ **1:8**
- CSLLY @ **2:1**
- BURU @ **1:4.99**
- PPBT @ **1:10**
- ZCMD @ **1:8**
- Expected earnings:
AAON, ACHR, ADT, ADTX, AGIG, AIV, ALG, AMRC, ANNX, APGE, API, ASAN, ASTH, ASTI, ASTS, AVBP, AZTR, BAOS, BBAI, BEEP, BHVN, BLTE, BRCC, BYFC, CERS, CGEN, CMMB, CORZ, CRC, CRD.A, CRD.B, CRDO, DAVE, EKSO, EU, FSCO, GAIA, GEMI, GRRR, GUTS, HLIO, HROW, IHRT, INGM, INR, JRVR, KBDC, KOS, KSPI, LIF, LMB, MDB, MRCC, NCLH, NEXT, NFE, NMRA, NUVB, NXE, OFS, OUST, PAM, PEPG, PLRX, PLUG, PMVP, QTRX, QUBT, QURE, RDNT, RGR, RHLD, RICK, RIOT, RPAY, SATS, SAVA, SEE, SENS, SGRY, STNE, SVCC, TDUP, TPB, TREE, TUYA, UNIT, URGN, VG, VTS, WAVE, WHF, WTI, XERS, YSG, ZYME
- Ex-div:
AMUN, ANGL, BALQ, BCLO, BEDY, BGRN, BKMI, BKMS, BMOP, BND, BNDP, BNDW, BNDX, BREM, BRHY, BRTR, CA, CAIQ, CALI, CANQ, CLOA, CPLS, EMB, EXC, EYEG, FALN, FFBC, FGNXP, GCMG, GGAL, GNMA, GPIQ, GPIX, GPRF, GTX, HQI, HYXF, IBGA, IBGB, IBGK, IBGL, IBTG, IBTH, IBTI, IBTJ, IBTK, IBTL, IBTM, IBTO, IBTP, IBTQ, IEF, IEI, IGIB, IGSB, IQQQ, ISTB, IUSB, JEPQ, LCNB, LFVN, MBB, MCRI, MYCF, MYCG, MYCH, MYCI, MYCJ, MYCK, MYCL, MYCM, MYCN, MYCO, MYMF, MYMG, MYMH, MYMI, MYMJ, MYMK, NBTB, NCPB, NPFI, NUSB, NZUS, PCMM, PFF, PMBS, PRDO, PTEN, QQQT, RCKY, SAFT, SHY, SKOR, SLQD, SSNC, SUSB, SUSC, TAXI, TAXS, TAXT, TCBIO, TLT, TW, UFPI, USFI, USIG, VBIL, VC, VCIT, VCLT, VCRB, VCSH, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VGUS, VMBS, VPLS, VTC, VWOB, WABF, WEN, YBST, YBTY, YLDE
- Economic events and announcements:
- OPEC Meeting
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, March 3rd
- Stock splits:
- GMGI @ **1:12**
- Expected earnings:
ACEL, ACNT, ADIL, ADV, AMLX, ANTA, ARCT, AVAV, AZO, BBY, BCYC, BGS, BIOX, BMR, BNRG, BOX, BRCB, BWLP, CAPS, CPIX, CPSS, CRCT, CRWD, CVEO, CXDO, CYCN, CYRX, EML, EOLS, EVGO, FSP, FSTR, FTEK, GTE, GTLB, HIHO, HRZN, HY, KTB, MASS, MDV, MEC, MNDO, MRX, NERV, NPCE, ONON, ORN, OXSQ, PASG, PSFE, QSI, QUIK, RIGL, ROST, RYAM, SCM, SCOR, SE, SGC, SHG, SLND, SNN, SOPH, SRAD, SRRK, SRTA, SSII, SSTI, STAA, SWIM, TELO, TGT, THO, TIL, UPLD, VIK, VLGEA, VSNT, WBTN, WEYS, WHLR, WMK, WSBF, YORW
- Ex-div:
ADI, CASS, RUSHA, RUSHB
- Economic events and announcements:
- 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.590%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.525%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.0%)
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (previous: 48.1)
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (previous: 57.1)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.7, previous: 52.6)
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (consensus: 60.6, previous: 59.0)
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.2, previous: 52.4)
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, March 4th
- Stock splits:
- BWAY @ **2:1**
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADGM, AEO, AFCG, ALTO, AMPY, ANF, AQST, ARDT, ASPI, ASPS, ATNI, AUUD, AVGO, AWRE, BBAR, BBOT, BBWI, BF.A, BF.B, BLFY, BLLN, BTE, BULL, BWMN, CBRL, CCRN, CDLX, CHPT, CIX, CLRB, CPHI, CSTE, CUB, CULP, CYN, DAKT, DY, EARN, EC, EDIT, EHAB, EWCZ, EYE, EYPT, FLYE, FRGE, FRPH, GENI, GO, GPGI, GPRK, HDSN, HLLY, HYFM, HYMC, ICCC, ICLR, IPI, JBI, KB, KMDA, LINK, LPSN, LUNG, MEI, MG, MLR, MLYS, MRAM, MVIS, MX, NAGE, NC, NCSM, NEXN, NGD, NNBR, OABI, OCGN, OFLX, OKTA, OLP, OOMA, OPFI, PAGS, PCSC, PFSA, PKOH, RDVT, REAX, REI, REPX, RGTI, RJET, RSKD, SBXD, SEG, SES, SGHT, SLNG, SMRT, SMSI, SNBR, STEM, STUB, STVN, SVCO, TARA, TCRX, TPVG, TSE, UCFI, VBNK, VCIC, VEEV, VET, VINP, VIVS, VMD, VSTM, WBX, WF, WIX, XFLT, XTIA, YMM, ZBIO
- Ex-div:
AVT, BGC, CAKE, FOX, FOXA, LRCX, OBT, ODFL, PAHC, PEBK, PYPL, SHBI, WSC
- Economic events and announcements:
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (previous: 11.400M)
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (consensus: 50.1, previous: 48.8)
- Redbook (previous: 6.7%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, March 5th
- Stock splits:
- DUST @ **1:10**
- JDST @ **1:20**
- HIBS @ **1:10**
- SOXS @ **1:20**
- TR @ **103:100**
- Expected earnings:
ACET, ACFN, AEYE, AKA, ALGS, ALNT, ALT, AMBQ, AMPX, AOUT, ASLE, ATHM, AVIR, BABA, BCIC, BDTX, BILI, BJ, BRLT, BURL, BVS, CANG, CCEC, CIEN, CLAR, CNQ, COO, COOK, COST, CRMT, CSAI, CTMX, CTNM, CV, DDL, DLNG, DOMO, DSGR, DTI, ELME, ERO, EVC, EVGN, FGBI, FHTX, FIZZ, FLL, FLYX, FNKO, FTCI, GAP, GDYN, GENK, GEVO, GHI, GOTU, GPRO, GREE, GRNT, GROV, GSL, GWH, GWRE, GWRS, HCM, HMR, III, IMA, IMPP, INUV, INV, IOT, ITRN, JCAP, JD, KIDZ, KR, KURA, KVHI, LBRX, LIMN, LODE, LOMA, LQDA, LWLG, LXRX, M, MCHX, MDWD, MEOH, MKTW, MLCI, MRVL, MYE, NEXM, NMAX, NOEM, NUTX, NX, NXTC, OLPX, OMDA, ONL, OPRX, ORKA, OWLT, PACK, PBFS, PBR, PBR.A, PDYN, PMTS, PROF, PROP, PRTH, PRTS, PSHG, PTRN, RAIN, RAND, RAPT, RBNE, REFR, RGNX, RNGR, RTO, SAMG, SLDB, SOBO, SOC, SSYS, SWBI, TEAD, TKC, TLSI, TOUR, TOVX, TRC, TTC, TTRX, UEIC, ULH, UROY, USAR, VOXR, VRME, VSCO, VTIX, VYNE, WLY, WLYB, WW, WYFI, XTNT
- Ex-div:
EXE, EXPE, FANG, HWC, JKHY, NRIM, ONB, QCOM, SLM, SLMBP, VNOM, WDC
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (consensus: 49K, previous: 22K)
- Beige Book
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 0.412M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 15.989M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 0.881M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.136M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.416M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 0.252M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -2.4%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -1.011M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: -0.223M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: -0.119M)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (previous: 57.4)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (previous: 50.3)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (previous: 53.1)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 53.5, previous: 53.8)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (previous: 66.6)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.09%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 0.4%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 149.7)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 340.2)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,432.9)
- S&P Global Composite PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- S&P Global Services PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 15.20M, previous: 14.90M)
^^^^2026-03-02

Another batch of company write-ups from Substack this week.
Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)
# Americas
**Long-term Investing** on [**Netflix**](https://sanj2f3.substack.com/p/netflix-nflx-9a7) (🇺🇸 NFLX US - US$357bn) Bounced 14% after dropping Paramount-WBD bid and securing US$2.8bn breakup fee. Tactical catalyst trade, not a fundamental deep dive.
**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Deere & Company**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/riskreward-vs-momentum) (🇺🇸 DE US - US$171bn) Earnings update. Q1 2026 beat with guidance raise to US$4.5-5bn net income. Construction +34% and Small Ag +24% signal cycle bottom, but at 34x trailing P/E the recovery looks priced in.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**Booking Holdings**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/booking-holdings-is-it-a-buy-at-15x) (🇺🇸 BKNG US - US$138bn) The most obvious bear case for Booking is AI disruption, and the market is pricing it in at 15x earnings after a 24% YTD decline. But Q4 room night growth accelerating at 9% with margin expansion suggests the structural threat is overestimated.
**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/mercadolibre-the-market-is-wrong) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech platform where Mercado Pago now processes US$200bn+ annually. At 45x P/E the valuation limits the near-term value case, but Rijnberk argues the market is wrong on the growth trajectory.
**Heavy Moat Investments** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://heavymoatinvestments.substack.com/p/the-company-that-divides-long-term) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$88bn) A second take on MercadoLibre, this time through a competitive positioning lens. 20/20 score across e-commerce, fintech, and logistics in Latin America. The premium valuation reflects dominance; this is one for patient capital awaiting a cheaper entry.
**AlphaSeeker84** on [**Apollo Global Management**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/apo-two-earnings-streams-one-mispriced) (🇺🇸 APO US - US$61bn) Dual fee-related and spread-related earnings model generates stable cash across cycles. 21x P/E looks fair, not cheap, for an alt manager with growing retirement assets.
**HighTech Investing** on [**PayPal Holdings**](https://hightechinvesting.substack.com/p/paypal-shares-after-the-crash-what) (🇺🇸 PYPL US - US$37bn) At 6.3x EV/EBIT and 8.7x P/E for a payments business generating US$5bn+ free cash flow, the market seems to be pricing in permanent decline. Potential M&A target or breakup candidate at these levels.
**Wealthy Readings** on [**Enphase Energy and SolarEdge Technologies**](https://www.wealthyreadings.com/p/a-second-breath-for-solar-names) (🇺🇸 ENPH US, 🇮🇱 SEDG US - US$6bn, US$2bn) Both solar inverter leaders down 85% from 2022 highs on inventory cycle now reversing. Enphase profitable with premium micro-inverter architecture; SolarEdge still loss-making.
**Cundill Deep Value** on [**PENN Entertainment**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/whos-next-penn-entertainment-penn) (🇺🇸 PENN US - US$2bn) The stock is down 90% from 2021 highs, yet the company still operates real casino assets across 28 jurisdictions generating cash. Activist HG Vora secured three board seats and is pushing for digital division exit and asset monetisation.
**Jam Invest** on [**Herbalife**](https://jaminvest.substack.com/p/n-and-i-73-i-see-i-see-what-you-cant) (🇺🇸 HLF US - US$2bn) 10x EV/EBIT with US$300m+ FCF visibility by 2028. Post-COVID distributor recovery gaining traction, but US$1bn net debt and the controversial direct-selling model remain overhangs.
**Waterboy Stocks** on [**Empire State Realty Trust**](https://waterboystocks.substack.com/p/empire-state-realty-trust) (🇺🇸 ESRT US - US$1bn) Trades at 0.63x NAV after a 45% five-year decline. CEO Malkin owns 13.3% with a strong balance sheet, but NYC office headwinds show no clear reversal yet. The valuation could stay depressed for a long time.
**Cundill Deep Value** on [**Gray Television**](https://cundilldeepvalue.substack.com/p/deep-value-report-gray-media-gtn) (🇺🇸 GTN US - US$528m) Local broadcast stations generating advertising, cable carriage fees, and political revenue. There is, however, a real risk that the US$5.8bn debt load overwhelms cash generation. High-risk deep value where the margin of safety rests on asset coverage, not earnings.
**ppinvest007** on [**Docebo**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/an-ai-first-lms-provider-at-a-fundamental) (🇨🇦 DCBO US - US$516m) Earnings update. AI-first learning management SaaS with 94% recurring revenue and 20.5% annual contract value growth. The US$60m buyback signals management confidence, though visibility at this scale remains limited.
**Enterprising Investor** on [**NSTS Bancorp**](https://enterprisinginvestor.substack.com/p/nsts-bancorp-stock-analysis) (🇺🇸 NSTS US - US$61m) Nano-cap community bank with virtually zero bad loans and heavy loss reserves from its 2022 listing. The old mortgage book yields 4.2% in a 6% rate world, squeezing profits until loans roll over.
**Prudent Profits** on [**Motorsport Games**](https://prudentprofits.substack.com/p/the-check-engine-light-is-off-why) (🇺🇸 MSGM US - US$20m) 1x sales post-turnaround from capital-destructive licensing to debt-free SaaS model. Unrivaled sim-racing physics engine, but nano-cap with unproven monetisation path.
# Europe, Middle East & Africa
**Uzo Capital** on [**Sanofi**](https://uzocapital.substack.com/p/who-am-iepisode-8) (🇫🇷 SAN PA - €96bn) TOP PICK The thesis is simple: 10-year valuation lows at 9x EV/EBIT and 12x P/E. Hidden €25bn firepower from Opella stake and Regeneron holdings behind a pharma business growing at 12%.
**Value and Opportunity** on [**Innoscripta SE**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/short-updates-innoscripta-and-nomad) (🇩🇪 1INN GR - €666m) German R&D tax credit SaaS platform with 61% EBIT margins and €12m insider buying. 10/10 management score from deep research, but illiquid and down 44% from its November high.
**Kubang Pasu Capital** on [**Broadpeak**](https://kubangpasucapital.substack.com/p/a-deep-value-play-on-videos-infrastructure) (🇫🇷 ALBPK PA - €29m) European video infrastructure provider at 0.7x EV/Sales versus 1.9x peers. SaaS transition via broadpeak.io gaining traction; serves 20m+ viewers. Already up 150% from the lows.
**Mr Deep Value** on [**Qwamplify**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/qwamplify-analysis) (🇫🇷 ALQWA PA - €9m) TOP PICK Rare find: 1.4x EV/FCF and 2.3x break-up value for a profitable French marketing firm. Net cash, founder-led, ignored by the market at €9m. One of the cheapest stocks we've seen.
# Asia-Pacific
**Cristian Leon** on [**Nadex Co**](https://cristianleon1200.substack.com/p/nadex-co) (🇯🇵 7435 JP - ¥8bn) At 0.4-0.6x P/B with a 575% earnings rebound, this is an incredibly low level for a Japanese industrial with net cash and negligible analyst coverage. The kind of overlooked recovery the market tends to ignore until it can't.
**Douglas Research** on [**DSC Investment**](https://douglasresearch.substack.com/p/korea-small-cap-gem-11-dsc-investment) (🇰🇷 241520 KS - US$123m) Korean venture capital firm holding 435bn won in four unicorn stakes against a 160bn won market cap. IPO catalysts for Kurly, Musinsa, and Dunamu are expected within 1-2 years. This quality is often overlooked in Korean small-caps.

A portfolio of Individual securities has a 0% management fee.
You will have to manage it yourself but it need not be complicated, just don't throw everything at PYPL and GME

It's unclear what value PYPL even has anymore. Banks literally do effortlessly that which was supposed to be there whole thing.

"just betting on credit stabilization and rate normalization"
Strangely narrow and specific bet. I'd expect that bet to inform part of a portfolio, like 10-20%, not the whole portfolios, and feels like you could express that bet with fewer positions - actually a couple of ETFs would avoid the idiosyncratic risk.
Either i) your bet is wrong, ii) your bet is right but your stocks don't express your bet, or iii) your bet is right but there are larger factors taking your portfolio down.
For i) it is arguably too early to say, but your bet certainly has not been correct "so far".
For ii) I see a bunch of names that have nothing much to do with your bet, or at least the connection is obscure. PYPL - this company's issue is strategy and competition, not "credit" and "rates"? ZM - what in the word does Zoom have to do with credit or rates? HIG - it is an insurance company, why aren't you focused on combined ratio and premium growth? RHI - is employment part of your bet?
For iii) this is the problem with basing a whole portfolio on a narrow bet. You can be myopically right, but miss the larger picture.

You might be wrong — but not for the reason you think.
Being down ~29% doesn’t automatically invalidate the thesis. The real question is whether you’re early… or structurally wrong.
From what you shared, this isn’t a traditional “value” portfolio. It’s a macro bet disguised as value investing. You’re effectively long:
• Credit normalization
• Lower volatility in funding markets
• Stable or falling rates
• No major recession
That’s not classic Graham/Buffett-style intrinsic value investing — that’s a coordinated sector rotation thesis.
Look at the concentration. You’re heavily exposed to regional banks (OZK, FHN, WAL, ZION, MTB, USB, etc.), consumer credit (COF, SYF, PYPL), and cyclicals (LEN, MOS, VLO, PTEN). If credit spreads widen or unemployment ticks up, correlations go to 1 and everything gets hit together.
So here’s how you could be wrong:
1. Rates stay higher for longer. Net interest margins don’t expand as expected, deposit competition persists, CRE losses rise.
2. Credit losses normalize above historical averages. Consumer names like COF/SYF get repriced lower.
3. Earnings quality was overstated. A lot of financials look “cheap” on trailing earnings that may not be through-cycle numbers.
4. This isn’t a temporary dislocation — it’s a regime shift.
The real question is: did you underwrite these businesses on normalized earnings power, or on the belief that multiples would mean-revert?
There’s a difference between:
• “This bank earns $X through the cycle and I’m buying it at 8x normalized EPS with a margin of safety”
and
• “This is down 40% and rates will normalize.”
The first is investing. The second is positioning.
Also ask yourself: if rates don’t normalize for 3–5 years, are you still happy owning these businesses? Or is your thesis time-dependent?
On the other hand, here’s the bull case for you:
If credit stabilizes and recession is mild or avoided, many of these names are trading at compressed multiples and could re-rate meaningfully. Financials historically rebound hard when fear unwinds. If you’re right on the macro backdrop, you’ll look very smart.
But right now your drawdown is telling you one thing clearly: your portfolio is highly factor-loaded to the same economic driver.
So the real challenge isn’t “convince me I’m wrong.” It’s:
Are you investing in businesses with durable competitive advantages and conservative balance sheets — or are you expressing a macro view through equities?
If it’s the latter, then your conviction should be in the macro thesis — not in “value.”
If you want, I can break this down further by sector and point out where the real fragility is versus where there may actually be asymmetric upside.

# Today is Monday, the 2nd of March
## Upcoming events for Monday, March 2nd
- Stock splits:
- AZLUY @ **1:75**
- BGAVF @ **1:8**
- CSLLY @ **2:1**
- BURU @ **1:4.99**
- PPBT @ **1:10**
- ZCMD @ **1:8**
- Expected earnings:
AAON, ACHR, ADT, ADTX, AGIG, AIV, ALG, AMRC, ANNX, APGE, API, ASAN, ASTH, ASTI, ASTS, AVBP, AZTR, BAOS, BBAI, BEEP, BHVN, BLTE, BRCC, BYFC, CERS, CGEN, CMMB, CORZ, CRC, CRD.A, CRD.B, CRDO, DAVE, EKSO, EU, FSCO, GAIA, GEMI, GRRR, GUTS, HLIO, HROW, IHRT, INGM, INR, JRVR, KBDC, KOS, KSPI, LIF, LMB, MDB, MRCC, NCLH, NEXT, NFE, NMRA, NUVB, NXE, OFS, OUST, PAM, PEPG, PLRX, PLUG, PMVP, QTRX, QUBT, QURE, RDNT, RGR, RHLD, RICK, RIOT, RPAY, SATS, SAVA, SEE, SENS, SGRY, STNE, SVCC, TDUP, TPB, TREE, TUYA, UNIT, URGN, VG, VTS, WAVE, WHF, WTI, XERS, YSG, ZYME
- Ex-div:
AMUN, ANGL, BALQ, BCLO, BEDY, BGRN, BKMI, BKMS, BMOP, BND, BNDP, BNDW, BNDX, BREM, BRHY, BRTR, CA, CAIQ, CALI, CANQ, CLOA, CPLS, EMB, EXC, EYEG, FALN, FFBC, FGNXP, GCMG, GGAL, GNMA, GPIQ, GPIX, GPRF, GTX, HQI, HYXF, IBGA, IBGB, IBGK, IBGL, IBTG, IBTH, IBTI, IBTJ, IBTK, IBTL, IBTM, IBTO, IBTP, IBTQ, IEF, IEI, IGIB, IGSB, IQQQ, ISTB, IUSB, JEPQ, LCNB, LFVN, MBB, MCRI, MYCF, MYCG, MYCH, MYCI, MYCJ, MYCK, MYCL, MYCM, MYCN, MYCO, MYMF, MYMG, MYMH, MYMI, MYMJ, MYMK, NBTB, NCPB, NPFI, NUSB, NZUS, PCMM, PFF, PMBS, PRDO, PTEN, QQQT, RCKY, SAFT, SHY, SKOR, SLQD, SSNC, SUSB, SUSC, TAXI, TAXS, TAXT, TCBIO, TLT, TW, UFPI, USFI, USIG, VBIL, VC, VCIT, VCLT, VCRB, VCSH, VGIT, VGLT, VGSH, VGUS, VMBS, VPLS, VTC, VWOB, WABF, WEN, YBST, YBTY, YLDE
- Economic events and announcements:
- OPEC Meeting
## Upcoming events for Tuesday, March 3rd
- Stock splits:
- GMGI @ **1:12**
- Expected earnings:
ACEL, ACNT, ADIL, ADV, AMLX, ANTA, ARCT, AVAV, AZO, BBY, BCYC, BGS, BIOX, BMR, BNRG, BOX, BRCB, BWLP, CAPS, CPIX, CPSS, CRCT, CRWD, CVEO, CXDO, CYCN, CYRX, EML, EOLS, EVGO, FSP, FSTR, FTEK, GTE, GTLB, HIHO, HRZN, HY, KTB, MASS, MDV, MEC, MNDO, MRX, NERV, NPCE, ONON, ORN, OXSQ, PASG, PSFE, QSI, QUIK, RIGL, ROST, RYAM, SCM, SCOR, SE, SGC, SHG, SLND, SNN, SOPH, SRAD, SRRK, SRTA, SSII, SSTI, STAA, SWIM, TELO, TGT, THO, TIL, UPLD, VIK, VLGEA, VSNT, WBTN, WEYS, WHLR, WMK, WSBF, YORW
- Ex-div:
ADI, CASS, RUSHA, RUSHB
- Economic events and announcements:
- 3-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.590%)
- 6-Month Bill Auction (previous: 3.525%)
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (consensus: 3.0%, previous: 3.0%)
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (previous: 48.1)
- ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (previous: 57.1)
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.7, previous: 52.6)
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (consensus: 60.6, previous: 59.0)
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 51.2, previous: 52.4)
## Upcoming events for Wednesday, March 4th
- Stock splits:
- BWAY @ **2:1**
- Expected earnings:
ACR, ADGM, AEO, AFCG, ALTO, AMPY, ANF, AQST, ARDT, ASPI, ASPS, ATNI, AUUD, AVGO, AWRE, BBAR, BBOT, BBWI, BF.A, BF.B, BLFY, BLLN, BTE, BULL, BWMN, CBRL, CCRN, CDLX, CHPT, CIX, CLRB, CPHI, CSTE, CUB, CULP, CYN, DAKT, DY, EARN, EC, EDIT, EHAB, EWCZ, EYE, EYPT, FLYE, FRGE, FRPH, GENI, GO, GPGI, GPRK, HDSN, HLLY, HYFM, HYMC, ICCC, ICLR, IPI, JBI, KB, KMDA, LINK, LPSN, LUNG, MEI, MG, MLR, MLYS, MRAM, MVIS, MX, NAGE, NC, NCSM, NEXN, NGD, NNBR, OABI, OCGN, OFLX, OKTA, OLP, OOMA, OPFI, PAGS, PCSC, PFSA, PKOH, RDVT, REAX, REI, REPX, RGTI, RJET, RSKD, SBXD, SEG, SES, SGHT, SLNG, SMRT, SMSI, SNBR, STEM, STUB, STVN, SVCO, TARA, TCRX, TPVG, TSE, UCFI, VBNK, VCIC, VEEV, VET, VINP, VIVS, VMD, VSTM, WBX, WF, WIX, XFLT, XTIA, YMM, ZBIO
- Ex-div:
AVT, BGC, CAKE, FOX, FOXA, LRCX, OBT, ODFL, PAHC, PEBK, PYPL, SHBI, WSC
- Economic events and announcements:
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (previous: 11.400M)
- FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
- FOMC Member Williams Speaks
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (consensus: 50.1, previous: 48.8)
- Redbook (previous: 6.7%)
## Upcoming events for Thursday, March 5th
- Stock splits:
- DUST @ **1:10**
- JDST @ **1:20**
- HIBS @ **1:10**
- SOXS @ **1:20**
- TR @ **103:100**
- Expected earnings:
ACET, ACFN, AEYE, AKA, ALGS, ALNT, ALT, AMBQ, AMPX, AOUT, ASLE, ATHM, AVIR, BABA, BCIC, BDTX, BILI, BJ, BRLT, BURL, BVS, CANG, CCEC, CIEN, CLAR, CNQ, COO, COOK, COST, CRMT, CSAI, CTMX, CTNM, CV, DDL, DLNG, DOMO, DSGR, DTI, ELME, ERO, EVC, EVGN, FGBI, FHTX, FIZZ, FLL, FLYX, FNKO, FTCI, GAP, GDYN, GENK, GEVO, GHI, GOTU, GPRO, GREE, GRNT, GROV, GSL, GWH, GWRE, GWRS, HCM, HMR, III, IMA, IMPP, INUV, INV, IOT, ITRN, JCAP, JD, KIDZ, KR, KURA, KVHI, LBRX, LIMN, LODE, LOMA, LQDA, LWLG, LXRX, M, MCHX, MDWD, MEOH, MKTW, MLCI, MRVL, MYE, NEXM, NMAX, NOEM, NUTX, NX, NXTC, OLPX, OMDA, ONL, OPRX, ORKA, OWLT, PACK, PBFS, PBR, PBR.A, PDYN, PMTS, PROF, PROP, PRTH, PRTS, PSHG, PTRN, RAIN, RAND, RAPT, RBNE, REFR, RGNX, RNGR, RTO, SAMG, SLDB, SOBO, SOC, SSYS, SWBI, TEAD, TKC, TLSI, TOUR, TOVX, TRC, TTC, TTRX, UEIC, ULH, UROY, USAR, VOXR, VRME, VSCO, VTIX, VYNE, WLY, WLYB, WW, WYFI, XTNT
- Ex-div:
EXE, EXPE, FANG, HWC, JKHY, NRIM, ONB, QCOM, SLM, SLMBP, VNOM, WDC
- Economic events and announcements:
- ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (consensus: 49K, previous: 22K)
- Beige Book
- Crude Oil Imports (previous: 0.412M)
- Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 15.989M)
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (previous: 0.881M)
- Distillate Fuel Production (previous: -0.136M)
- EIA Refinery Crude Runs (previous: -0.416M)
- EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks (previous: 0.252M)
- EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (previous: -2.4%)
- Gasoline Inventories (previous: -1.011M)
- Gasoline Production (previous: -0.223M)
- Heating Oil Stockpiles (previous: -0.119M)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Activity (previous: 57.4)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment (previous: 50.3)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (previous: 53.1)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (consensus: 53.5, previous: 53.8)
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (previous: 66.6)
- MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (previous: 6.09%)
- MBA Mortgage Applications (previous: 0.4%)
- MBA Purchase Index (previous: 149.7)
- Mortgage Market Index (previous: 340.2)
- Mortgage Refinance Index (previous: 1,432.9)
- S&P Global Composite PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- S&P Global Services PMI (consensus: 52.3, previous: 52.3)
- Total Vehicle Sales (consensus: 15.20M, previous: 14.90M)
^^^^2026-03-02

So just curious what would you invest in as a value stock and why?
Currently the only two stocks I am in are PFE and PYPL. PFE is priced for virtually no growth, but I believe with all of the cash they have available from Covid vaccine sales to put into the pipeline R&D, plus the likelihood they’ll be called on for the next pandemic, they’ll do fine. I know PYPL has been a bit overly discussed here on Reddit, but I do see many parallels with NFLX from a few years ago when the price tanked and pundits made investors fear that Disney, Apple, and other media companies would wipe them out. I also see a similar path where the price putters around until investor confidence is restored.
I didn’t mention these at the sop because I didn’t want this to turn into another PYPL discussion…would like to hear from others.

PLTR and PYPL will be going crazy, trust the process 🤞🤞

VIX calls - $50+ this week?
NVDA - hard to ignore in the $170’s (even in a negative market)
PYPL - trading at a massive steep discount (agree with Muzhio) and should be trading at $90-$100 at a minimum. They’ll certainly be acquired if stock continues to trade in the $40-$60 range. Venmo alone could attract $40B (the whole PYPL valuation at current prices).
ORCL- prior to earnings next week, Oracle is on sale!

Honestly, I NEVER hedge. I only buy when my conviction is extremely high, and I am fully prepared to own the loss if it doesn’t work out.
So, I buy 50-90% shares, and 10-50% LEAPs in most positions. Meaning I am usually quite levered.
For my PYPL position, I am 90% in LEAPs that expire in 2028. Strike prices all between $35-$70.

Very true, I think a lot of value investors should understand how Lynch differs from Buffet (especially as latter day BRK needed to be managed in a different way due to it's size).
I also think a lot here confuse risk averse investing (which, yeah manage your risk) and a really weird antipathy towards growth potential when talking about Value Investing.
**Growth stocks** are shares in companies expected to expand earnings at an above-average rate, leading investors to pay a premium for future potential. **Value stocks** are shares in established companies that appear underpriced by the market relative to their "intrinsic worth," often due to temporary setbacks or lack of investor excitement.
On the one hand we get the posts about, and I'm picking one's I wouldn't touch, but are the *definition* of Value stocks; like PYPL (that post about them adding ad revenue reads more like the company grasping for straws to me), DUAL (good market share/nothing immediate or that I fundamentally I hate in the financials, but I absolutely believe AI *could* easily destroy them in a few years), UNH (I believe I made an extensive comment on this a few months ago, bearish, I'll dig it up and re-post if anyone asks), ADBE (A bit more convinced in the 1-3 year hold space than I was yesterday). I don't hold them and am not looking to, but despite the complaints about them being posted, they *do* 'appear under priced relative to their intrinsic worth.' So if you hate those posts, articulate why you think it's a value trap on them and we might see less of them.
On to Lynch though, that was just bothering me, he looks at at value based on their future performance over a 3-10 year period that is based on fundamentals and risk. My favorite quote is "If **seven out of ten** of my stocks perform as expected, then I’m delighted. If **six out of ten** of my stocks perform as expected, then I’m thankful. Six out of ten is all it takes to produce an enviable record on Wall Street." I expect some of my picks to under perform, I tax loss harvest in Nov/Dec on a 1-3 year time-frame, in other words I only expect one or two to be completely wrong (losses), most to hopefully beat inflation/indices, and 1-2 to 10-100 bag (as an example).
He does have so many other good quotes though. Late new years resolution, I'll read 'One Up On Wallstreet' this year. Finally.