PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

I own lulu, enjoy the quality, more and more of my closet is becoming lulu. Anecdotally I always see the lulu stores busy here in canada.
I can definitely see how many redditors aren't exactly in the inside when it comes to fashion trends so they avoid it. But im 25 and reasonably understand what's popular and what's not so why not invest? High ROIC, lowest valuation in a decade. Stagnant US sales isn't great but International is encouraging. Idk could turnaround before the end of 2025 with back to school and holidays coming up later on.
Just because you bought UNH, PYPL or NOVO doesn't mean you're king shit my guy. Guy thinks he's the king of value over here.

I have a fairly large long position in $PYPL.
Average EPS growth of 2.5% from now until the end of time gives me a value of $71 per share.
5.0% EPS growth for 10 years and 2.5% EPS growth thereafter gives me a value of $85 per share.
-2.5% growth from now until the end of time is a value of $41 per share.
They are buying back 10% of outstanding shares per year.
The company would need to start seeing huge declines in free cash flow for there to be a bad investment result at today’s price.

PYPL launched ads. That is yet to see full growth and ROI.
Amazon did it a few years ago (around 2017 i guess) and today amazon is expected to do - $60 billion in 2025 and nearly $70 billion in 2026 - from its ads business alone!
PYPL with its huge network of SMEs is going to benefit from ad business. That will be growth.
Next one is, PYPL has been ahead in launching own stable coin. With Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) and wall street banks catching up, PYPL is already well positioned to benefit from that.
$300 my target in next two years!

I genuinely want to believe that your thesis is spot on.
However, my deep red (albeit, not as red as yours, but still red) is very painful and makes me very nervous. I fear another PYPL fiasco here 😓

The last 4 quarters have been PYPL weakest YoY quarterly revenue growth ever. The last 3 years have been the weakest three years of growth ever, getting worse each year. They aren’t winning share, they are losing it. Multiples are low because of this and because of expectations things will continue to trend negatively.
I don’t know how they could turn it around at this point. They won’t disappear overnight, but doing the same old thing will result in lower to no growth and not attract investment.

Definitelly strong buy at these levels.
Valuation is really good and FCF 6B going to share buybacks against market cap \~70B market cap is crazy.
Strong tailwind which will be there for next 10-20years and that is online shoping tranformation(They are going even to offline shoping but that is another story).
Scale, there are very few companies with this level of scale. 400M accounts and 30M merchants, amazing two sided network
They have products (now separated) which they finally connect together and build one e-commerce app which will have strong position. For consumers (pypl+venmo, BNPL, crypto, rewards, yielding accounts) and for mechants (Braintree, venmo for business, BNPL, financial services, fraud and risk management). So these will be more like bundling rather than separated products which bolster merchant and cosumer stickness.

Growth opprotuinities:
PayPal world - Pypl is first and they connect main wallets under their ptocolo from all around the world Paypal+Venmo+Tenpay (Wechat, China)+UPI(India)+Merchado Pado(Latam) so another 2B accounts so with Pypl you can pay In China in future and vice versa. With many more wallets to join in future.

Advertisement - They have unique data between top comapnies (transaction based), Meta (interest based), Googl(intense to buy based). So they have profiles of users with their buy history and Merchants can target them based on these metrics which is very unique proposition and amazing growth driver for PYPL. Advertising is high margin busines with TAM 800B-1T where they have no presense and strong intent to make bold moves. If you compare it to rise of UBER in advertisement from 0 in 2022 to 1,5B revenues in 2025. It is very impresive. They hired Mark Grether from Uber to basically copy this template. Uber has also similar kind of data (transaction history+location). So for me there is great opprotunitity to add 1-5B(5-20% revenues against their 33B revenues) in mid term only from this. Maybe they will not report ads separated but it can boost their margins.
For merchants advertisement is big cost and often uneffective. So you don't spend blindly on ads but rather pay higher fee to pypl if their ad endup by completed purchase.
And if you believe(or are afraid) something can disrupt Google advertisement position with these chatbots(Chatgpt, etc). So after you texted or voiced bot to some recomendation for product there must be seamless integration to finish that buy which is not there yet. PYPL is positioned to finish that based on their data.

In that price range: KR, CVS, PYPL, CCL, MRK, D

$PYPL - I know it’s polarizing. But I really struggle to see why it’s a bad buy.

I own lulu, enjoy the quality, more and more of my closet is becoming lulu. Anecdotally I always see the lulu stores busy here in canada.
I can definitely see how many redditors aren't exactly in the inside when it comes to fashion trends so they avoid it. But im 25 and reasonably understand what's popular and what's not so why not invest? High ROIC, lowest valuation in a decade. Stagnant US sales isn't great but International is encouraging. Idk could turnaround before the end of 2025 with back to school and holidays coming up later on.
Just because you bought UNH, PYPL or NOVO doesn't mean you're king shit my guy. Guy thinks he's the king of value over here.

I have a fairly large long position in $PYPL.
Average EPS growth of 2.5% from now until the end of time gives me a value of $71 per share.
5.0% EPS growth for 10 years and 2.5% EPS growth thereafter gives me a value of $85 per share.
-2.5% growth from now until the end of time is a value of $41 per share.
They are buying back 10% of outstanding shares per year.
The company would need to start seeing huge declines in free cash flow for there to be a bad investment result at today’s price.

PYPL launched ads. That is yet to see full growth and ROI.
Amazon did it a few years ago (around 2017 i guess) and today amazon is expected to do - $60 billion in 2025 and nearly $70 billion in 2026 - from its ads business alone!
PYPL with its huge network of SMEs is going to benefit from ad business. That will be growth.
Next one is, PYPL has been ahead in launching own stable coin. With Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act (GENIUS Act) and wall street banks catching up, PYPL is already well positioned to benefit from that.
$300 my target in next two years!

I genuinely want to believe that your thesis is spot on.
However, my deep red (albeit, not as red as yours, but still red) is very painful and makes me very nervous. I fear another PYPL fiasco here 😓

The last 4 quarters have been PYPL weakest YoY quarterly revenue growth ever. The last 3 years have been the weakest three years of growth ever, getting worse each year. They aren’t winning share, they are losing it. Multiples are low because of this and because of expectations things will continue to trend negatively.
I don’t know how they could turn it around at this point. They won’t disappear overnight, but doing the same old thing will result in lower to no growth and not attract investment.

Definitelly strong buy at these levels.
Valuation is really good and FCF 6B going to share buybacks against market cap \~70B market cap is crazy.
Strong tailwind which will be there for next 10-20years and that is online shoping tranformation(They are going even to offline shoping but that is another story).
Scale, there are very few companies with this level of scale. 400M accounts and 30M merchants, amazing two sided network
They have products (now separated) which they finally connect together and build one e-commerce app which will have strong position. For consumers (pypl+venmo, BNPL, crypto, rewards, yielding accounts) and for mechants (Braintree, venmo for business, BNPL, financial services, fraud and risk management). So these will be more like bundling rather than separated products which bolster merchant and cosumer stickness.

Growth opprotuinities:
PayPal world - Pypl is first and they connect main wallets under their ptocolo from all around the world Paypal+Venmo+Tenpay (Wechat, China)+UPI(India)+Merchado Pado(Latam) so another 2B accounts so with Pypl you can pay In China in future and vice versa. With many more wallets to join in future.

Advertisement - They have unique data between top comapnies (transaction based), Meta (interest based), Googl(intense to buy based). So they have profiles of users with their buy history and Merchants can target them based on these metrics which is very unique proposition and amazing growth driver for PYPL. Advertising is high margin busines with TAM 800B-1T where they have no presense and strong intent to make bold moves. If you compare it to rise of UBER in advertisement from 0 in 2022 to 1,5B revenues in 2025. It is very impresive. They hired Mark Grether from Uber to basically copy this template. Uber has also similar kind of data (transaction history+location). So for me there is great opprotunitity to add 1-5B(5-20% revenues against their 33B revenues) in mid term only from this. Maybe they will not report ads separated but it can boost their margins.
For merchants advertisement is big cost and often uneffective. So you don't spend blindly on ads but rather pay higher fee to pypl if their ad endup by completed purchase.
And if you believe(or are afraid) something can disrupt Google advertisement position with these chatbots(Chatgpt, etc). So after you texted or voiced bot to some recomendation for product there must be seamless integration to finish that buy which is not there yet. PYPL is positioned to finish that based on their data.

In that price range: KR, CVS, PYPL, CCL, MRK, D

$PYPL - I know it’s polarizing. But I really struggle to see why it’s a bad buy.

Happy that I got out with PYPL when I did.

PYPL just doing PYPL things down big for no reason

PYPL drilling

What happened to PYPL lmao