PYPL
PayPal Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

I think the high-beta markets' behavior is about to change. So, I did an analysis YTD today (no use of AI whatsoever).
Taking the WSB's top-40 voted picks from [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pvodhc/top\_40\_dark\_horse\_bets\_for\_2026/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pvodhc/top_40_dark_horse_bets_for_2026/), if you had invested $10,000 in each of these, see how much each bet would be worth today at close of 7/29/2026.
|Summary:||
|:-|:-|
|SPY (baseline)|6.97%|
|**Top-10**|**9.01%**|
|Top-20|13.05%|
|Top-30|3.90%|
|Top-40|7.66%|
For each ticker assuming $10,000 was invested at close 31 Dec'25, the value today is:
|Rank|**Ticker**|**Price on 12/31/2025**|**Today**|**Growth**|**Value**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||SPY|$ 681.92|$ 729.46|\+6.97%|$ 10,697|
|||||||
|1|RDDT|$ 229.87|$ 177.99|\-22.57%|$ 7,743|
|2|AST S|$ 72.63|$ 53.03|\-26.99%|$ 7,301|
|3|NBIS|$ 83.71|$ 148.22|\+77.06%|$ 17,706|
|4|ONDS|$ 9.76|$ 6.83|\-30.02%|$ 6,998|
|5|AMZN|$ 230.82|$ 226.65|\-1.81%|$ 9,819|
|6|POET|$ 6.33|$ 6.37|\+0.63%|$ 10,063|
|7|OXY|$ 41.12|$ 56.03|\+36.26%|$ 13,626|
|8|RKLB|$ 69.76|$ 58.60|\-16.00%|$ 8,400|
|9|META|$ 660.09|$ 585.61|\-11.28%|$ 8,872|
|10|MRNA|$ 29.49|$ 54.49|\+84.77%|$ 18,477|
|**1-10**||||**+9.01%**||
|11|DUOL|$ 175.50|$ 140.17|\-20.13%|$ 7,987|
|12|SOFI|$ 26.18|$ 15.23|\-41.83%|$ 5,817|
|13|PL|$ 19.72|$ 19.47|\-1.27%|$ 9,873|
|14|PYPL|$ 58.38|$ 58.35|\-0.05%|$ 9,995|
|15|KRKNF|$ 4.67|$ 4.02|\-13.92%|$ 8,608|
|16|UNH|$ 330.11|$ 420.57|\+27.40%|$ 12,740|
|17|RDW|$ 7.60|$ 7.78|\+2.37%|$ 10,237|
|18|MU|$ 285.41|$ 739.00|\+158.93%|$ 25,893|
|19|NVO|$ 50.88|$ 51.58|\+1.38%|$ 10,138|
|20|CMPS|$ 6.90|$ 10.90|\+57.97%|$ 15,797|
|**1-20**||||**+13.05%**||
|21|BULL|$ 7.77|$ 7.01|\-9.78%|$ 9,022|
|22|NVDA|$ 186.50|$ 190.01|\+1.88%|$ 10,188|
|23|LUNR|$ 16.23|$ 11.39|\-29.82%|$ 7,018|
|24|QS|$ 10.42|$ 4.96|\-52.40%|$ 4,760|
|25|PATH|$ 16.39|$ 12.59|\-23.18%|$ 7,682|
|26|CEG|$ 353.27|$ 257.95|\-26.98%|$ 7,302|
|27|APP|$ 673.82|$ 399.46|\-40.72%|$ 5,928|
|28|OPEN|$ 5.83|$ 3.67|\-37.05%|$ 6,295|
|29|RIVN|$ 19.71|$ 16.33|\-17.15%|$ 8,285|
|30|VG|$ 6.82|$ 13.05|\+91.35%|$ 19,135|
|**1-30**||||**+3.90%**||
|31|RCAT|$ 7.93|$ 6.77|\-14.63%|$ 8,537|
|32|UMAC|$ 12.74|$ 17.26|\+35.48%|$ 13,548|
|33|ABAT|$ 3.34|$ 2.05|\-38.62%|$ 6,138|
|34|INTC|$ 36.90|$ 81.88|\+121.90%|$ 22,190|
|35|AAPL|$ 271.86|$ 338.19|\+24.40%|$ 12,440|
|36|WEN|$ 8.33|$ 7.65|\-8.16%|$ 9,184|
|37|IREN|$ 37.77|$ 29.31|\-22.40%|$ 7,760|
|38|AMD|$ 214.16|$ 429.56|\+100.58%|$ 20,058|
|39|NFLX|$ 93.76|$ 73.63|\-21.47%|$ 7,853|
|40|M|$ 22.05|$ 24.76|\+12.29%|$ 11,229|
|**1-40**||||**+7.66%**||
I am actually surprised the overall performance is quite decent at each tranche count (compared to baseline). I realize the risk-adjusted returns are much worse, but here I just did a simple growth calculation

Imagine holding PYPL through a 20% market correction

GOOGL PYPL ADBE CRM
NVO is the only popular value pick ive seen here that i dislike

I grabbed a good chunk of UNH when it flashed down to 250 and sold within a few weeks at 330. ADBE at 195 too, that was an obvious one. PYPL at 40, I didn’t buy, but seemed like limited downside there finally. This thread has been right about plenty, stocks usually overextend significantly on both sides. Hard to time an exact bottom or top.

PYPL and NVO green YTD.... r/ValueInvesting poping champagne.

long term is what matters here (think in years, not months) but I would be lying if I didn't say that it feels good. it's wild how much pushback the real value theses got when we were sharing our PayPal/Adobe write ups a couple months back. So many comments were overly dismissive. The crazy part to me was that the dismissiveness almost never came from actual fundamentals and almost always skewed towards recent price movement... Paypal at $100+? terrible investment... Paypal below $60? phenomenal investment.
Also seeing way too many posts pushing memory/chip/hyperscaler names without a DCF that's grounded in reality. I saw one on Micron using a 3% discount rate, which isn't defensible for any company... especially a cyclical semi name.
I fully expect a pullback across the board, but based on my models, these are names I'm comfortable owning at current levels. Of the list, I hold PYPL and ADBE.

Starting a position on 60DTE PYPL call swings.
That monthly looking nice

I think the high-beta markets' behavior is about to change. So, I did an analysis YTD today (no use of AI whatsoever).
Taking the WSB's top-40 voted picks from [https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pvodhc/top\_40\_dark\_horse\_bets\_for\_2026/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pvodhc/top_40_dark_horse_bets_for_2026/), if you had invested $10,000 in each of these, see how much each bet would be worth today at close of 7/29/2026.
|Summary:||
|:-|:-|
|SPY (baseline)|6.97%|
|**Top-10**|**9.01%**|
|Top-20|13.05%|
|Top-30|3.90%|
|Top-40|7.66%|
For each ticker assuming $10,000 was invested at close 31 Dec'25, the value today is:
|Rank|**Ticker**|**Price on 12/31/2025**|**Today**|**Growth**|**Value**|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
||SPY|$ 681.92|$ 729.46|\+6.97%|$ 10,697|
|||||||
|1|RDDT|$ 229.87|$ 177.99|\-22.57%|$ 7,743|
|2|AST S|$ 72.63|$ 53.03|\-26.99%|$ 7,301|
|3|NBIS|$ 83.71|$ 148.22|\+77.06%|$ 17,706|
|4|ONDS|$ 9.76|$ 6.83|\-30.02%|$ 6,998|
|5|AMZN|$ 230.82|$ 226.65|\-1.81%|$ 9,819|
|6|POET|$ 6.33|$ 6.37|\+0.63%|$ 10,063|
|7|OXY|$ 41.12|$ 56.03|\+36.26%|$ 13,626|
|8|RKLB|$ 69.76|$ 58.60|\-16.00%|$ 8,400|
|9|META|$ 660.09|$ 585.61|\-11.28%|$ 8,872|
|10|MRNA|$ 29.49|$ 54.49|\+84.77%|$ 18,477|
|**1-10**||||**+9.01%**||
|11|DUOL|$ 175.50|$ 140.17|\-20.13%|$ 7,987|
|12|SOFI|$ 26.18|$ 15.23|\-41.83%|$ 5,817|
|13|PL|$ 19.72|$ 19.47|\-1.27%|$ 9,873|
|14|PYPL|$ 58.38|$ 58.35|\-0.05%|$ 9,995|
|15|KRKNF|$ 4.67|$ 4.02|\-13.92%|$ 8,608|
|16|UNH|$ 330.11|$ 420.57|\+27.40%|$ 12,740|
|17|RDW|$ 7.60|$ 7.78|\+2.37%|$ 10,237|
|18|MU|$ 285.41|$ 739.00|\+158.93%|$ 25,893|
|19|NVO|$ 50.88|$ 51.58|\+1.38%|$ 10,138|
|20|CMPS|$ 6.90|$ 10.90|\+57.97%|$ 15,797|
|**1-20**||||**+13.05%**||
|21|BULL|$ 7.77|$ 7.01|\-9.78%|$ 9,022|
|22|NVDA|$ 186.50|$ 190.01|\+1.88%|$ 10,188|
|23|LUNR|$ 16.23|$ 11.39|\-29.82%|$ 7,018|
|24|QS|$ 10.42|$ 4.96|\-52.40%|$ 4,760|
|25|PATH|$ 16.39|$ 12.59|\-23.18%|$ 7,682|
|26|CEG|$ 353.27|$ 257.95|\-26.98%|$ 7,302|
|27|APP|$ 673.82|$ 399.46|\-40.72%|$ 5,928|
|28|OPEN|$ 5.83|$ 3.67|\-37.05%|$ 6,295|
|29|RIVN|$ 19.71|$ 16.33|\-17.15%|$ 8,285|
|30|VG|$ 6.82|$ 13.05|\+91.35%|$ 19,135|
|**1-30**||||**+3.90%**||
|31|RCAT|$ 7.93|$ 6.77|\-14.63%|$ 8,537|
|32|UMAC|$ 12.74|$ 17.26|\+35.48%|$ 13,548|
|33|ABAT|$ 3.34|$ 2.05|\-38.62%|$ 6,138|
|34|INTC|$ 36.90|$ 81.88|\+121.90%|$ 22,190|
|35|AAPL|$ 271.86|$ 338.19|\+24.40%|$ 12,440|
|36|WEN|$ 8.33|$ 7.65|\-8.16%|$ 9,184|
|37|IREN|$ 37.77|$ 29.31|\-22.40%|$ 7,760|
|38|AMD|$ 214.16|$ 429.56|\+100.58%|$ 20,058|
|39|NFLX|$ 93.76|$ 73.63|\-21.47%|$ 7,853|
|40|M|$ 22.05|$ 24.76|\+12.29%|$ 11,229|
|**1-40**||||**+7.66%**||
I am actually surprised the overall performance is quite decent at each tranche count (compared to baseline). I realize the risk-adjusted returns are much worse, but here I just did a simple growth calculation

Imagine holding PYPL through a 20% market correction

GOOGL PYPL ADBE CRM
NVO is the only popular value pick ive seen here that i dislike

I grabbed a good chunk of UNH when it flashed down to 250 and sold within a few weeks at 330. ADBE at 195 too, that was an obvious one. PYPL at 40, I didn’t buy, but seemed like limited downside there finally. This thread has been right about plenty, stocks usually overextend significantly on both sides. Hard to time an exact bottom or top.

PYPL and NVO green YTD.... r/ValueInvesting poping champagne.

long term is what matters here (think in years, not months) but I would be lying if I didn't say that it feels good. it's wild how much pushback the real value theses got when we were sharing our PayPal/Adobe write ups a couple months back. So many comments were overly dismissive. The crazy part to me was that the dismissiveness almost never came from actual fundamentals and almost always skewed towards recent price movement... Paypal at $100+? terrible investment... Paypal below $60? phenomenal investment.
Also seeing way too many posts pushing memory/chip/hyperscaler names without a DCF that's grounded in reality. I saw one on Micron using a 3% discount rate, which isn't defensible for any company... especially a cyclical semi name.
I fully expect a pullback across the board, but based on my models, these are names I'm comfortable owning at current levels. Of the list, I hold PYPL and ADBE.

Starting a position on 60DTE PYPL call swings.
That monthly looking nice

Lol of course all the plebs here downvote this post. They’ve doing the same about SaaS and PYPL for months now.
They never learn.

They do have debt in the form of customer borrowings (last bullet below. If you take the difference between customer receivables and payables, then that should be it. Check today's 10Q release summarized below if helpful. The first bullet is corporate debt. I would not include long term investments as these include strategic investments, some of which might be less liquid. Would also probably remove SBC or amount of stock they buy to offset employee dilution from the FCF. Also if there is a large draw on customer funds, and I believe PYPL would need to use it's own cash as backstop. Might not fully explain the low multiple but there is bank like risk.
* **Liquidity/debt:**
* In May 2026, PayPal issued $2.0 billion aggregate principal of senior unsecured fixed-rate notes ($650M 4.550% due 2028, $850M 4.950% due 2031, $500M 5.550% due 2036), with proceeds for general corporate purposes including potential redemption of outstanding debt and share repurchases.
* Short-term debt of $2,505M and long-term debt of $10,895M at June 30, 2026 versus $1,596M short-term debt and $9,987M long-term debt at December 31, 2025; treasury stock grew to $36,165M from $33,138M reflecting $3.0 billion in YTD repurchases under the February 2025 program.
* **Strategic reorganization:** April 2026 announcement of a business simplification program targeting at least $1.5 billion in gross annualized run-rate savings over two to three years, with certain first-phase actions expected to generate approximately $400 million of run-rate gross savings and a $120M-$140M transformation charge anticipated in the second half of 2026.
* **Litigation consolidation:** In May 2026, the Darcy and Norfolk securities class actions were consolidated as In re PayPal Branded Checkout Securities Litigation, with five additional shareholder derivative actions filed during Q2 2026 consolidated in July 2026 as In re PayPal Holdings, Inc. Stockholder Derivative Litigation.
* **Equity plan:** In May 2026 stockholders approved the PayPal Holdings, Inc. 2026 Equity Incentive Award Plan, authorizing up to 39.1 million new shares plus up to 44.6 million shares potentially recycled from the prior 2015 Plan.
* **TPV growth:** Total payment volume grew 10% y/y to $486.4 billion in Q2 2026, while active accounts were flat at 439 million; number of payment transactions rose 8% to 6.75 billion.
* **Tax rate:** Effective tax rate decreased to 16% in Q2 2026 from 18% in Q2 2025, primarily due to U.S. income taxed at different rates; YTD 2026 effective tax rate of 18% versus 19% in YTD 2025.
* **Credit designation:** In July 2026, an additional $500 million was approved by management for European credit activities, increasing the cumulative CSSF-approved designation to $2.5 billion from $2.0 billion at December 31, 2025.

PYPL was always a shit company that was overvalued though lol

That was on Yahoo Finance under the PYPL ticker

PYPL fair value closer to 80-90 now. Will Stripe up their bid?

Note I left on your windshield: *Sorry about your bumper. I have no insurance and no money, but what I do have are 4 PYPL puts and genuine belief. Call me.*