PYPL Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

Finishing up some analysis myself. Sifting through the comments by others, many are citing their lack of using the consumer facing products (Paypal button, Paypal more generally, Venmo, etc.) but AFAIK and can tell from what I've been seeing in my research Braintree is the foundation, not the former products.

As well and perhaps to some of the points raised above by u/Borrtex about supply/demand in the stock, management had originally suggested continued declines in volume and revenues from Braintree as they focus on profitability and "negotiate with merchants" (aka we are raising prices and expect some enterprise customer churn as a result). They stated this in their 2024 10K and it showed up in the Q2 2025 numbers, as expected. Then in Q3, their Braintree revenues and volumes shift back up. They reiterated the decline in the first half of 2025 but due to their "negotiations" and focus on profitability (Q2 earnings call snippet and Q3 10Q quote below, emphasis below is mine),
"We've also hit a ***positive inflection point for Braintree volume***. ***We are now past the peak pressure from renegotiating and shedding unprofitable volume***. Braintree volume was roughly flat in the quarter. ***We expect a return to volume growth in the third quarter*** as we drive profitable front book business, support our existing merchant base, and continue to lean more into value-added services."

"As a result of our stronger focus on profitable growth and ongoing negotiations with merchants, we experienced lower volume and transaction revenue from our Braintree offerings in the first half of 2025. As noted above, in the third quarter of 2025, revenue and TPV from Braintree offerings grew year-over-year. ***In the fourth quarter of 2025, we expect volume from our Braintree offerings to continue to grow***.",
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The Q3 inflection could just turn out to be a blip (e.g., the churn of customers may resume), we'll see in a few weeks, perhaps. Their CFO has a good track record and management more generally appears to be doing what they say they will do to move toward profitability and lean on their Braintree processing foundation while they experiment with other means to promote larger growth.
I've been long since $73 and some LEAPS but until recently hadn't done as much diligence as I should have. I do think it's a very different company than it was a few years ago, has taken steps to become a different business, and as mentioned by the OP the shareholder base is likely shifted greatly. I need to see my effective position size relative to other parts of my portfolio but may dip in more here and there through earnings...or maybe I'll just hold what I have through earnings and buy if there's strength after they report.
All that to say, I think PYPL is in a different place than it was pre-2024 but as others who are favorable to it, it could take longer to turn around...or it could bust all together if they have their own misteps or face some competitive/macro headwind they aren't able to weather.