PIK
Kidpik Corp. Common Stock
stock NASDAQ

Fair point on timing and normally I’d agree with you. The slow walk is how it usually plays out. Nobody wants to mark to reality and blow up their bonus. That’s how 2008 took two years to unfold from first cracks to collapse.
But the difference this time is there’s a physical catalyst that doesn’t care about accounting. Hormuz is closed. 20% of global oil is not moving. Dubai crude is at $170. Countries are already rationing fuel.
This isn’t a slow moving credit deterioration where banks can extend and pretend for years. Companies that need energy to operate are running out of it right now. You can’t PIK toggle your way out of not having fuel.
In 2008 the rot took years because it was financial and you could hide losses with creative accounting. This is physical. Barrels either arrive or they don’t. Factories either have power or they don’t. The energy crisis compresses the timeline because the real economy breaks before the accountants can paper over it.

While there is a lot of garbage in private credit, some of the things posted are just flat out wrong.
I’m happy to be proven wrong, but it is just totally false that defaults are at record highs. Public markets default rates are in line with long-term averages at roughly 3.5%.
Private credit defaults, based on data that’s available are slightly higher than 5%, and that’s if you include non-accruals/PIK interest.
Also, the CLO market is $1.2tn. Only 10% of this market consists of Private Credit CLOs, the rest are all public issuers.
And the majority of Insurance company private credit is all IG. It has to be otherwise they would get destroyed in capital charges. Private credit doesn’t mean it’s all shit. Meta, Google, Apple, AB InBev etc. all issue in the private market.

Fair point on timing and normally I’d agree with you. The slow walk is how it usually plays out. Nobody wants to mark to reality and blow up their bonus. That’s how 2008 took two years to unfold from first cracks to collapse.
But the difference this time is there’s a physical catalyst that doesn’t care about accounting. Hormuz is closed. 20% of global oil is not moving. Dubai crude is at $170. Countries are already rationing fuel.
This isn’t a slow moving credit deterioration where banks can extend and pretend for years. Companies that need energy to operate are running out of it right now. You can’t PIK toggle your way out of not having fuel.
In 2008 the rot took years because it was financial and you could hide losses with creative accounting. This is physical. Barrels either arrive or they don’t. Factories either have power or they don’t. The energy crisis compresses the timeline because the real economy breaks before the accountants can paper over it.

While there is a lot of garbage in private credit, some of the things posted are just flat out wrong.
I’m happy to be proven wrong, but it is just totally false that defaults are at record highs. Public markets default rates are in line with long-term averages at roughly 3.5%.
Private credit defaults, based on data that’s available are slightly higher than 5%, and that’s if you include non-accruals/PIK interest.
Also, the CLO market is $1.2tn. Only 10% of this market consists of Private Credit CLOs, the rest are all public issuers.
And the majority of Insurance company private credit is all IG. It has to be otherwise they would get destroyed in capital charges. Private credit doesn’t mean it’s all shit. Meta, Google, Apple, AB InBev etc. all issue in the private market.