NFLX
Netflix Inc
stockNASDAQ

\> NFLX seems like a no-brainer at these levels - what am I missing? Brains

I think the biggest risk is assuming the ad business will eventually deliver exactly what the bull case expects...The opportunity is real, but Netflix still has to prove it can scale advertiser demand, improve ad pricing and fill inventory consistently. More ad tier sign-ups don't automatically translate into proportional revenue growth. I'd also be careful with the assumption that ad-supported users will eventually be more profitable than premium subscribers. That depends on ad load, pricing, engagement and how much advertisers are willing to pay. The margin benefit from owning the ad stack could also take longer to materialize than expected. Sports is another interesting one. Live events can attract huge audiences, but rights aren't cheap. WWE and NFL events drawing viewers is encouraging, but the real question is whether the incremental ad revenue and subscriber retention justify the cost... At 18x forward earnings, NFLX looks reasonably priced for a business growing earnings at 10–11%, with improving margins and potential upside from advertising. My main concern is execution. If content costs rise, engagement weakens or the ad business takes longer to scale, earnings expectations could come down. I like the long term opportunity, but I'd distinguish between a strong business and a sure bet. Netflix has a lot going for it; the question is how much of the expected growth it can actually deliver.

\>NFLX and it's competitors do not They don't? Video models have become mcuh better. Right now it is possible for one person with a generative AI model to make a consistent short film. Who is to say in a future you won't be able to describe a vague idea of a movie and have it generated for you?

If you held NFLX for last 5 yrs, you'd be in red. It should me remove and it should just be MAAG now.

Can NFLX just have one good day and pump?

> - does NFLX have a stable MOAT? > The core problem. They do not have a moat. There is so much competition for content and Netflix just has not done a good job of late acquiring quality content.

Some other questions to consider. \- does NFLX have a stable MOAT? \- is incentive comp correctly aligned for business success? \- Always Invert: what would need to happen to make this a horrible investment?

Good stuff ITT.   I don't like seeing ADBE and other SaaS coming up here.  Those companies have an existential threat positioned against their core competency.  NFLX and it's competitors do not.  AI simply will not replace humans in high quality contextual entertainment.  AI does however replace humans in high quality software engineering. Now that NFLX is no longer viewed as a tech platform, but instead as a media platform, it just boils down to creatives nailing things and finding margins there.  Which is super tricky business.  Considering all the failed Netflix movies over the last two years, I'm not loving it.   I'd feel differently if Happy Gilmore 2 or 72 Hours or whatever generated real buzz, or if Jake Paul somehow became a legit prize fighter.  See what I'm saying?

Because NFLX grows revenue 12-15% a year at 30% operating margin, and DIS grows below 5% at 15% operating margin. Not even talking about the massive difference in their balance sheets. The other 2 are not even worth mentioning in that comparison.

I think they're lacking content, and streaming services will be among the first cuts for many if (and I expect when) things get too expensive for people this winter. Also on the ad side, I'd want to see more on their standalone platform. Standalone usually means enterprise level budgets only, which is already their MO only being available programmatically via the paid DSPs. Most other streamings are at least accessible for smaller players (still requiring high bids), and after watching them bumble it with MSFT, I am skeptical at best. All my personal opinion you may refute with data, but that's what is keeping me from NFLX. At these levels, it's probably a decent risk, but I don't think it's the easy 70% you're suggesting.

I would focus on really digging into the industry as the entertainment/media/digital streaming space is highly competitive. There has been a lot of consolidation/mergers within the industry and companies continue to compete on content and price. The traditional media networks are either consolidating or producing their own streaming platform, which has impacted NFLX's content inventory. It seems like a major challenge for NFLX will be the development of original content or obtaining exclusive streaming rights or production deals. I might have missed this, but I was unable to tell the NFLX to industry analysis. Where NFLX stands in relation to the industry and its competitors. Current market share, top competitors, any economies of scale, exclusive streaming rights, or anything that creates differentiation from its competitors.

The argument against NFLX that makes sense to me in the long term is that they’re trying to compete with other traditional networks and streaming platforms, but they all have a weak business model compared to YouTube. Platforms that produce their own content will be in a winner take all/most game with each other. We just saw this even with Warner Bros and paramount. YouTube is in a much more capital efficient position to benefit as a platform without having to pay much for good content.  I have traded Netflix recently but I view them as a trade position and not a long term one. Same reasoning applies for other streaming services like Disney.

I literally said elsewhere in this thread to someone who compared NFLX to ADBE that the latter should trade at twice its current price haha. Yeah, when this sub is overly bearish it tingles my Spidey senses lol. That being said, I do still find it hard to differentiate what is just the echo chamber versus what is genuinely true for a given company.

I am also an ADBE shareholder because of the exact same fundamental reasons you briefly highlighted in your comment. Started buying too soon though, so I'm now at like 3% loss overall. Not selling though. As for NFLX, I understand the stock is out of favour in Wall Street because they seem - as always - hyper focused on a single data point (or 2) without considering the larger picture. Isn't that exactly the difference between them and what this sub is supposed to be - short-term versus long-term investors?

Did you miss the other 50 NFLX posts on this sub from the last week?

There are a ton of streaming services with better products. NFLX has no sports, and they have to compete with HBO, Disney, Peacock, Apple, Amazon, Hulu and more

currently not much, i sold out with the crash SPY, AT&T, Reddit, GM, NFLX, BIRK I like to buy after selloffs been gamma scalping Nebius the last month with great results, the RV is just so much bigger than IV

NFLX seems like a no-brainer at these levels - what am I missing? Please provide the bear arguments!

NFLX content is bootie cheeks. Spend more time browsing for something to watch than actually viewing. No wonder is down 50% from ATH

NFLX may be a buy at $48 for a swing

Down over $120k since October 6th, biggest losers, AMD, LITE, COHR, AVGO, MRVL, AMZN, GOOGL, MODINE, CLS, NFLX. No options. Just shares. How brutal is this? Just looking for someone who experienced similar losses. 16% off from all time highs on my port.

AAPL, AMD, AMZN, AVGO, BABA, BAC, GOOG, GOOGL, HOOD, INTC, META, MSFT, MU, NFLX, NOK, NVDA, ORCL, PFE, PLTR, TSLA, TSM a bunch of etfs too u gotta enable it on RH too at least

After MSFT I decided to go long on NFLX

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Odd_Wave_4541 (0W - 1L, 0%) | Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result | |:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:| | **NFLX** ▲ | $65.74 → $69.03 | +5.0% | 2d | Lost |

Presently $20k GOOG, $10k NFLX, $11k META. What should I add to this dream portfolio? Have some free capital.