MDB
MongoDB, Inc. Class A
stock NASDAQ

## Cheap Calls
These call options offer the lowest ratio of Call Pricing (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move up significantly less than it has moved up in the past. Buy these calls.
| Stock/C/P | % Change | Direction | Put $ | Call $ | Put Premium | Call Premium | E.R. | Beta | Efficiency |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TTD/38/37 | 0.13% | -33.2 | $0.56 | $0.66 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 114 | 1.58 | 85.4 |
| MDB/417.5/410 | 0.14% | 28.97 | $8.18 | $7.02 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 50 | 1.56 | 64.9 |
| ETSY/62/61 | -0.52% | 139.61 | $1.26 | $1.16 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 36 | 0.97 | 64.4 |
| PANW/192.5/187.5 | -0.28% | 8.34 | $2.34 | $1.06 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 30 | 1.18 | 56.8 |
| DKNG/35/34 | -1.24% | 52.92 | $0.46 | $0.62 | 0.42 | 0.42 | 114 | 1.1 | 87.2 |
| PYPL/58/57 | -0.13% | -66.8 | $0.78 | $0.46 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 21 | 1.23 | 92.4 |
| TSLA/445/437.5 | -0.85% | -20.71 | $5.65 | $7.45 | 0.43 | 0.43 | 16 | 2.0 | 98.4 |
## Cheap Puts
These put options offer the lowest ratio of Put Pricing (IV) relative to historical volatility (HV). These options are priced expecting the underlying to move down significantly less than it has moved down in the past. Buy these puts.
| Stock/C/P | % Change | Direction | Put $ | Call $ | Put Premium | Call Premium | E.R. | Beta | Efficiency |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| TTD/38/37 | 0.13% | -33.2 | $0.56 | $0.66 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 114 | 1.58 | 85.4 |
| KMB/99/98 | -0.03% | -28.8 | $0.92 | $0.95 | 0.37 | 0.5 | 15 | 0.25 | 65.3 |
| PDD/122/120 | 0.45% | 77.57 | $1.23 | $1.65 | 0.39 | 0.44 | 65 | 0.7 | 81.1 |
| MDB/417.5/410 | 0.14% | 28.97 | $8.18 | $7.02 | 0.39 | 0.35 | 50 | 1.56 | 64.9 |
| PYPL/58/57 | -0.13% | -66.8 | $0.78 | $0.46 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 21 | 1.23 | 92.4 |
| PANW/192.5/187.5 | -0.28% | 8.34 | $2.34 | $1.06 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 30 | 1.18 | 56.8 |
| ORCL/200/195 | -0.24% | 40.82 | $3.08 | $3.6 | 0.41 | 0.44 | 56 | 1.36 | 93.4 |
## Upcoming Earnings
These stocks have earnings comning up and their premiums are usuallly elevated as a result. These are high risk high reward option plays where you can buy (long options) or sell (short options) the expected move.
| Stock/C/P | % Change | Direction | Put $ | Call $ | Put Premium | Call Premium | E.R. | Beta | Efficiency |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MS/190/185 | -0.76% | 73.42 | $3.62 | $2.28 | 1.46 | 1.61 | 3 | 1.23 | 84.1 |
| GS/940/925 | -0.67% | 83.44 | $14.42 | $23.58 | 1.05 | 1.22 | 7 | 1.25 | 79.0 |
| SBUX/89/87 | -0.56% | 32.55 | $0.8 | $0.9 | 0.78 | 0.81 | 7 | 0.94 | 85.4 |
| UAL/116/114 | -1.86% | 40.9 | $2.82 | $3.08 | 0.95 | 0.84 | 8 | 2.04 | 58.7 |
| DHI/160/155 | -0.38% | 8.61 | $2.72 | $1.88 | 0.77 | 0.87 | 8 | 0.64 | 59.9 |
| SCHW/101/99 | 0.16% | 33.6 | $0.48 | $0.94 | 0.86 | 0.74 | 9 | 0.92 | 78.6 |
| JNJ/207.5/202.5 | 0.51% | -0.87 | $1.2 | $1.07 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 9 | 0.34 | 67.6 |
- **Historical Move v Implied Move:** We determine the historical volatility (standard deviation of daily log returns) of the underlying asset and compare that to the current implied volatility (IV) of the option price. We use the same DTE as a look back period. This is used to determine the Call or Put Premium associated with the pricing of options (implied volatility).

- **Directional Bias:** Ranges from negative (bearish) to positive (bullish) and accounts for RSI, price trend, moving averages, and put/call skew over the past 6 weeks.
- **Priced Move:** given the current option prices, how much in dollar amounts will the underlying have to move to make the call/put break even. This is how much vol the option is pricing in. The expected move.
- **Expiration:** 2026-01-16.
- **Call/Put Premium:** How much extra you are paying for the implied move relative to the historic move. Low numbers mean options are "cheaper." High numbers mean options are "expensive."
- **Efficiency:** This factor represents the bid/ask spreads and the depth of the order book relative to the price of the option. It represents how much traders will pay in slippage with a round trip trade. Lower numbers are less efficient than higher numbers.
- **E.R.:** Days unitl the next Earnings Release. This feature is still in beta as we work on a more complete list of earnings dates.
- **Why isn't my stock on this list?** It doesn't have "weeklies", the underlying is "too cheap", or the options markets are too illiquid (open interest) to qualify for this strategy. 480 underlyings are used in this report and only the top results end up passing the criteria for each filter.

Thank you for this writeup.
I don't incorporate detailed DCF analysis into my screening, but routinely look at annual dilution (as "buyback yield" in the stockanalysis screener). The only time I consider stocks with negative "buyback yield" is if they've made substantial *and accretive to shareholders* capital investments or acquisitions to justify the dilution. For the income side of my portfolio, I'll consider stocks whose "shareholder yield" (buyback yield + dividend yield) is higher than the risk-free rate of short term Treasuries, while still being lower than free cash flow yield. If one also demands historical revenue growth exceeding inflation, it leaves a tiny universe.
Its in assembling lists of potential shorts for the next bear market that my eyes start to pop, especially looking at the software sector. For 30 years some market commentators have described Silicon Valley as the systematic transfer of wealth from outside investors to founders/VCs/insiders. When the companies saturate their potential markets, the "gig is up" and later outside investors will never see a positive return. We're seeing some examples now, like PLTR (earnings yield 0.26%, dilution -6.17%), SNPS (1.33% and -6.23%), DASH (0.93% and -11.00%), MDB (-0.21% and -9.82%).