LOT
Lotus Technology Inc.
stock NASDAQ ADR

Whenever some ape comes out from hibernation in old towel subs and asks question about "current situation", remaining apes always suggest to "seek answers" on twitter *(all good 'DD' is there)*. I think they naturally migrated there en masse, and there's surprisingly quite A LOT of them still there.
Plus tweets not need to be edited at all before posting!

[WTS] 90% LOT UNDER SPOT

Nice! I've done a lot of silly things this year that most investors would probably cringe at but I've done so managing my personal risk vs. learning curve comfortably. I'm not overly anal about having the cleanest portfolio in terms of overlap. There are plenty more years to learn how I would approach that most efficiently. I've also learnt a lot about what I feel morally comfortable in investing in, although that's a real rabbit hole hey.
So keeping personal politics out of it& fully knowing I've not got the smartest approach (but one I am fully happy with now and have justified to myself) I invest in (please excuse the mega overlaps here):
-S&P500
-FTSE All-world
-Gold
-Silver
-NVIDIA
-Google
-Nasdaq-100
-Rolls-Royce
-Berkshire Hathaway
I had a fair amount in Barclays which did A LOT of heavy lifting this year but sold due to it not feeling too comfortable in myself with it.
I do have about 80% in the ETFs as I've taken a year out of a decent paying job to pursue a masters and am currently in hospitality to support that so don't currently want to stress too much about volatility.
Most importantly, for me, I've just enjoyed the research and learning process. I know that I'll simplify my approach over the next year but my approach hasn't done me too dirty this year!

Coin dealers are making bank in this silver market --
They have A LOT of supply coming in from collectors who hoarded for all those years when silver languished, and are dumping now to finally cash out. So the dealers can low-ball purchase offers.
AND because of the buying frenzy, they can charge major premiums on every piece they sell.
Good times to be an LCS.

Well said. He had a LOT on his plate to undo. He accomplished much.

She will need A LOT of personal security.. some people who lost millions will be looking for her after her release.

It has been multiple years with AI image generation out.... but those who are online a LOT still are waging some war to "stop AI" .... so they go around being toxic to random people who post AI stuff. Haha
Look at these peoples post history, they are literally just going around doing this sort of thing under comments to pretend a lot of people are anti-AI.... when it's just a SUPER minority of extra motivated losers that are astroturfing the internet with this garbage.

Doesnt always work. Backtested a LOT using orb on SPY and had a clean retest off the ORH with the 5m timeframe and it faked out and shot down. Still very risky. Doeant always work

Those are definitely kilo bars, or maybe 20oz bars minimum? LOT of silver.

It's not low p/e ratio it's normal if you look at the rest of the world... it's just the big tech in US is just crazy right now. But if you look at Korean stocks even the biggest ones like SK and Samsung it went up double or more in the past year. Yes there is fraud and corruption but you think we don't? A LOT of people made money investing in KR stocks the past year. Just don't invest in LG.

Modest profits don’t destroy short sellers. The stock market is completely divorced from real results. I never said the company hasn’t don’t a decent job at turning things around. But I also at the same time don’t believe that the stock is going to magically explode any time soon. I’m not saying it can’t. All I said was the it feels dumb up to this point to be down 50%. My guess is I invested LOT more than you and have a lot more on the line than you do. When you buy the shares at $200 I won’t begrudge you the right to feel sad about the situation either.

Metal, get your metal. We got metal for the people here! Stack in good health all you lovely degenerates.
PROOF - https://imgur.com/8gBBjRb
**Check out the really cool miniature silver casters down at the bottom, they make great stocking stuffers. (FINAL) Price Drop.**
Offers accepted on multiple items.
BIN it and Win it. First to BIN gets it. Otherwise I decide the order in which I respond to chats. And to be fair to others BIN means Buy It **Now**, so no dilly-dallying or or haggling.
If I make a mistake in my pricing I reserve the right to change it.
/---------------------------
**SLABBED GOLD & SILVER**
**1x - 1811-A Napoleon I w/ Laurels NGC AU53 (#2930304-001)**
* $1050 ($100 below comps)
* https://imgur.com/6b6J0XZ
* https://imgur.com/8ccuhML
~~1x - 1812-A Napoleon I w/ Laurels NGC AU53 (#299185-013)~~ SOLD
* $1050 ($100 below comps)
* https://imgur.com/jqVfpY1
* https://imgur.com/x2064gr
**1x - 1812-A Napoleon I w/ Laurels NGC AU53 (#2943271-001)**
* $1050 ($100 below comps)
* https://imgur.com/wmLlddb
* https://imgur.com/muTXL85
**1x - 1812-A Napoleon I w/ Laurels NGC AU53 (#6590179-005)**
* $1050 ($100 below comps)
* https://imgur.com/YF67rv6
* https://imgur.com/QzwDCIs
**1x - 2014 British 1/4 Sovereign NGC PF70 Ultra Cameo, one of first 75 struck**
* $329
* https://imgur.com/E4iHNUd
* https://imgur.com/wG2LZ9x
**1x - 1895-O Morgan NGC F15. Visually hits nicely above it's grade.**
* ~~$395~~ $390
* https://imgur.com/7LwaswK
* https://imgur.com/f6zhfrs
**1x - 1897-S Morgan PCGS MS64**
* ~~$315~~ $305
* https://imgur.com/u54XGz9
* https://imgur.com/EQrAPj6
**1x - 1955-D NGC MS66 FT, Full Torch Roosevelt Dime**
* $22
* https://imgur.com/BOvs1vb
* https://imgur.com/ppJIbvN
/---------------------------
**GOLD**
~~7x - 1/200th gold rounds in capsules. Random designs: frosty, flags, ships.~~ SOLD
* $35 each (lowest price out there)
* https://imgur.com/KWcSbE9
* https://imgur.com/vGLTO0s
**1x - Chonky 4.25g Gold Nugget from Oregon**
* $649
* https://imgur.com/RxaQh9Y
* https://imgur.com/RuLa1Gk
* https://imgur.com/zRWFQ7b
**1x - 2023 Argor-Heraeus 10g Gold Lunar Year of the Rabbit Bar sealed in assay. #3815 of 8888.**
* $1549
* https://imgur.com/wb2fh1I
* https://imgur.com/JVI0QNM
~~1x - 2022 Argor-Heraeus 1g Lunar Year of the Tiger bar sealed in assay. #673 of 3888~~ SOLD
* $219
* https://imgur.com/7RYty22
* https://imgur.com/CNEPMxZ
~~4x - China 1/20 oz gold Olympics Medals in original capsules~~ SOLD
* KITCO SPOT + $5 each ($232)
* https://imgur.com/rzl3R1k
* https://imgur.com/vVbe8G4
**3x - Perth 2016 Colorized Lunar Monkey King Gold 1/20th oz**
* $261 each (a good bit below comps)
* https://imgur.com/HaunLj7
* https://imgur.com/SVoF3M9
* https://imgur.com/gOWtnyV
/---------------------------
**ARIZONA GOLDBACKS**
Fresh and new alpha series. The latest Goldback releases.
Current official exchange rate: $8.95 (you know I am gonna beat that)
**A Full strap of 100x 1/2 Goldbacks fresh off the presses**
* $420 for the strap of 100x shipped
* https://imgur.com/iMi2UwJ
* https://imgur.com/5fKWoFk
**~~100x~~ ~~80x~~ ~~70x~~ ~~60x~~ ~~45x~~ ~~35x~~ 25x - from a strap of 1 Goldbacks fresh off the presses**
* Selling in batches of 5 for $42
* https://imgur.com/BSCWGD5
* https://imgur.com/kXhYSiL
/---------------------------
**VINTAGE SILVER**
**3x - USVI 1oz Troy Rounds. Extremely RARE! Great condition. Comes in capsule. Same folks that make the A-Mark Chunky ingots, only round :P**
* $129 each (killing the comps on this one)
* https://imgur.com/xjghKI4
* https://imgur.com/oKabUKg
**~~5x~~ 3x - 1983 Engelhard Prospectors. BU, in capsules. Key date!**
* $99 each. Beating all comps!
* https://imgur.com/VNCsb4m
* https://imgur.com/4ggTJ3a
~~4x - 1oz Rarities Mint High Relief George Washington 250th Anniversary Rounds. Excellent Condition.~~ SOLD
* $79 each
* https://imgur.com/dWpmLOD
* https://imgur.com/93P4zhO
~~1x - 1972 1oz Silver Universaro. Such the weird one with all the tiny floating heads. Very BU. I assume this is made by Omega M & B Mining since it has their logo on it. Funny I have never noticed anyone mention this before and I never noticed the logo even though it's one of my favorite.~~ SOLD
* $80
* https://imgur.com/iX7Lw6A
* https://imgur.com/wAOfxmb
~~1x - St Gaudines Tribute Vintage 1oz Silver round~~ SOLD
* $78
* https://imgur.com/Qfx5Kir
* https://imgur.com/za92nUO
/---------------------------
**FRACTIONAL SILVER**
**1x - Canada 1/2oz Polar Bear. A touch scruffy**
* $39 (under spot)
* https://imgur.com/1uQJkes
* https://imgur.com/np710Yu
/---------------------------
**PREMIUM SILVER**
~~1x - 2025 ASE Proof with Marines Privy in OGP~~ SOLD
* $149
* https://imgur.com/XJ5SqZZ
* https://imgur.com/t0d3Zxt
* https://imgur.com/W13tu9n
**2x - Desert Eagle Investment Casters with OGP and COA**
* $39 each
* https://imgur.com/dnfTgz3
* https://imgur.com/KsaCOY7
/---------------------------
**MINIATURE SILVER CASTERS**
**(FINAL) PRICE DROP**
Found another awesome artist to showcase for you all! J.C. Metals & More. This guy is great. He makes tiny silver fantasy weapons and objects. They are all hand molded, hand cast, and then hand stamped with the tiniest numbers to ensure you know their weight and 999 purity. Each and every one is unique, but there are a few similar pieces. I think you are gonna love these. Support a small local artist this holiday season, they are getting to live the dream :)
**PLEASE ORDER BY NUMBER!! THERE ARE A LOT**
Full Album - https://imgur.com/a/91VKtmG
-1. [Bowie Knife](https://imgur.com/KsnCX6g) - $57
-2. [Crow Bar](https://imgur.com/ZM2iHzd) - $16
-4. [Sword](https://imgur.com/khjdtby) - $20
-5. [Rocket](https://imgur.com/SbWtuxJ) - $30
-6. ~~[Hammer](https://imgur.com/2RfDVs1) - $12~~ SOLD
-7. [Machete](https://imgur.com/wRIsjqm) - $7
-8. [Crossbow](https://imgur.com/f7S17Ei) - $30
-11. [Wide Sword](https://imgur.com/BjeTGum) - $20
-12. [Machine Gun 2](https://imgur.com/kduAhYT) - $24
-13. [Tiny Pistol](https://imgur.com/ROiuLjE) - $7
-14. [Beefy Grenade](https://imgur.com/PWZRAsQ) - $57
-17. [Machine Gun 3](https://imgur.com/zD44LgL) - $28
-18. [Starheart](https://imgur.com/1nPWuHO) - $41
-20. [Machine Gun 4](https://imgur.com/ePvnDfK) - $28
-21. [Arrowhead](https://imgur.com/3HumSQG) - $44
-22. [3 piece Gun, Magazine, Bipod](https://imgur.com/5KhDxmg) - $48
-23. [Machine Gun 5](https://imgur.com/vIBADVg) - $28
-24. [Tiny Pistol 2](https://imgur.com/5ADtvkw) - $8
-25. [Fantasy Sword 2](https://imgur.com/4yRebcI) - $34
-26. [Rifle](https://imgur.com/4Cekwts) - $28
-27. [Shotgun 2](https://imgur.com/2TjFbf4) - $27
-28. [Machine Gun 6](https://imgur.com/tc1cUV6) - $31
-29. [Baseball Bat](https://imgur.com/TgSzoWj) - $28
-30. [Sword 3](https://imgur.com/ERjM2MJ) - $20
-31. [Bow](https://imgur.com/EWLnz2h) - $12
-32. [Tiny Pistol 2](https://imgur.com/SqEGUz8) - $7
-33. [2 piece Gun & Bipod](https://imgur.com/TJVgMeS) - $48
-35. [2 piece Gun & Magazine](https://imgur.com/CUOkQml) - $34
-37. [Starheart 2](https://imgur.com/KEx825u) - $41
-38. [Rifle w/ Bayonette](https://imgur.com/SgeLLqY) - $28
-39. [Triton](https://imgur.com/WFi0jcu) - $39
-40. [Police Baton](https://imgur.com/DD7W2xH) - $12
-41. [Machete 2](https://imgur.com/916OlGS) - $7
-42. ~~[Sword 4](https://imgur.com/pXWtxUK) - $28~~ SOLD
-43. [2 piece Rifle w/ Bayonette](https://imgur.com/xWA7Eqq) - $49
-44. [Tiny Pistol 3](https://imgur.com/YeG7xmD) - $7
-45. [Machine Gun 7](https://imgur.com/t5ADai7) - $42
-46. [Syringe](https://imgur.com/lrQUIll) - $7
-48. ~~[Beefy Machine Gun](https://imgur.com/R6T0x8W) - $74~~ SOLD
-49. [Weird Gun](https://imgur.com/cVKKh4K) - $20
-50. [Bolt Cutters](https://imgur.com/LFbYSHB) - $12
-51. [Paddle Sword](https://imgur.com/CivVDPn) - $55
-52. [Skillet](https://imgur.com/6X9cbXa) - $15
-53. [Beefy Lion Shield](https://imgur.com/94Ln9e2) - $83
-55. [Battle Axe 2](https://imgur.com/YsT9htw) - $56
-56. [Fantasy Sword](https://imgur.com/jyDFJyQ) - $21
-57. [Tiny Pistol 4](https://imgur.com/rDjDNEi) - $7
-58. [Bat Wing](https://imgur.com/S0LYXPC) - $12
-59. [Machine Gun 8](https://imgur.com/6Iljqe8) - $32
-60. [Machine Gun 9](https://imgur.com/lqBfXRP) - $35
-62. [2 piece Gun & Bipod 2](https://imgur.com/BxTBsPW) - $28
-64. [2 piece Laptop & CB](https://imgur.com/Qj1qXAC) - $44
-65. [Camping Axe](https://imgur.com/v7Yy45e) - $12
-66. [3 piece Gun, Magazine & Bipod 2](https://imgur.com/Hq44ABn) - $57
-68. [Uzi-Type Gun](https://imgur.com/1Jkl4dS) - $17
-69. ~~[Machine Gun 10](https://imgur.com/BYO2gpF) - $24~~ SOLD
-71. [Binoculars](https://imgur.com/wlln4zP) - $12
-72. [Small Sword](https://imgur.com/gUZjWlN) - $13
-74. [Fantasy Sword 2](https://imgur.com/T13MOK7) - $32
-75. [Hunting Knife](https://imgur.com/R3AMT2h) - $20
-76. [Rifle 2](https://imgur.com/M2YwYQq) - $28
-77. [Battle Axe 3](https://imgur.com/Uvgj3Gh) - $45
-78. [Camp Shovel](https://imgur.com/RX32j7P) - $18
-80. [Shotgun 3](https://imgur.com/staqKQu) - $28
-81. ~~[Machine Gun 11](https://imgur.com/s8L9Lxi) - $35~~ SOLD
/---------------------------
ALL ITEMS SIGMA VERIFIED
USA PAYMENT - Zelle, Venmo (NO NOTES), Paypal F&F, fiat cash, checks, money orders. Checks and Money orders need to fully clear first before I ship anything.
USA SHIPPING - $5-16. I pack and ship like I like to receive it. Nicely secured, padded, and no jingling. I hand deliver to post office for scanning and will provide tracking. On higher dollar sales I may require registered mail charged at cost.
RESPONSIBILITY - It ends when the package shows delivered in tracking. If you have a problem with porch pirates I recommend signature confirmation, which I can provide at cost. All items verified. I stand behind what I sell 100%.
SECURITY - All my proof pictures will contain my ZENPATHFINDER silver round name badge that u/UnresolvedEgo made. I love it. You should consider a name badge of your own if you sell. I am no dummy and any "mod" that says I am banned and they need my password to see my chats gets a nice teabagging pic and is reported. I will always use my custom name tag to provide proof via chat, just ask. I have 2FA on my account. LETS KEEP THIS SUB SAFE!

I agree. It has so much interest. I don’t see maybe I not ATH but spiked $3, up and down, A LOT, but instead of $1.78-1.95, maybe it’ll be $2.95-3.15. If honestly be happy with that, and somewhat promising clarity act reactions. XRP is useful (mainly in its timeliness and does have some rep in the game).
Ripple is as well (did someone mention possible IPO?) it’s steadily fights between number five and number four between popularity and perpetuals. The interest is there, it still could go either way, regardless I do hope for the best, but I shall stay realistic, cause I do not see it being $100 like some of these places say, or whatever, it could possibly moon ever so slightly pass ath, but I do have a feeling it may break some solid ground and hold a level at the price is listed above hopefully by EOY 2026.

I think so. That doesn't mean it can't retreat for times (dips) but there are a LOT of factors pushing silver higher.

Dew it. Sell a LOT of contracts, and make that cheddar 💰
What could go wrong?!

That did nothing to help with the irony and lack of self-awareness in your previous response. 
The demand for gold is not “artificial”. In fact, if the GSR were closer to 1:1, you’d see A LOT of the industrial use of silver switch to gold, because there are things that silver does that gold does better. 
Gold may never conduct quite as good as gold, but gold is not too far behind. But silver, on the other hand, corrodes and doesn’t last as long. With a closer GSR, EEs would respec a lot of silver to gold. 
So, no, that “gold is fiat” BS doesn’t work. Gold is intrinsically valuable as well. 
I’ve been on this sub a long time, and have been stacking silver (and gold) twice as long. Bro, you *need* to get out every once in a while. Too much time huffing the fumes of the silver cultists farts isn’t good for a brain. 
“…. *but muh Nintendo wouldn’t exist without silber!!!”*
Sheesh. 

Behold the greatest life lesson for all men as you head into 2026 gold ✨️
#ESCORTS, PROSTITUTES, HOOKERS, SUGARBABIES, AND STRIPPERS ARE NOT INTO YOU 🫵🙄
#THEY DON'T LOVE YOU OR CARE ABOUT YOU 💔
#THEY JUST WANT YOUR MONEY 😈 💰
#LIKE IT OR NOT. IT'S THE TRUTH. AND ALL LOT OF MEN NEEDED TO HEAR IT

# General Update
The [last update](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1omsln9/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/) had me closing $AMZN positions on its positive earnings reaction and ignoring an impulse of full-port buying $NVDA with them guiding up 2026 by 50% at their GTC conference. Both ended up being the correct call - and I had outlined a few potential plays going forward. The one I went with was buying the megacaps on their recent pullback and taking profits on the string of green market days we have experienced on low holiday volume.
This update has been written in parts over the last fews days as time allowed. Hopefully it has come together into a coherant whole.
I'll go over my macro views, current numbers, and what I'm currently doing now. For the usual disclaimer up front, **the following is not financial advice and I could be wrong about anything in this post.** This is just my thought process for how I am playing my personal investment portfolio.
# The AI Trade
For a quick summary: if I was to be invested into any stock sector, it would be this basket for 2026. It is why I had bought $NVDA before earnings and then even more on [December 17th](https://bsky.app/profile/bluewolf1983.bsky.social/post/3ma7fdurkx22o) when it was trading at $171. It is also why I had bought the hyperscalers $AMZN as my second position and $MSFT for the final one. However, I'll outline why the macro now worries me enough to abandon that bet.
**Good News = Stock Down**
$NVDA had spectacular earnings and had a very positive initial earnings move. Them it caused the S&P500 to do something it has only done 4 times in the last 32 years: open up at least 1.5% and close down at least 1.5% ([source](https://sherwood.news/markets/us-stocks-just-suffered-one-of-their-most-stunning-reversals-in-32-years/)). Two of these were from the financial crisis and the other one was due to a tariff announcement. $NVDA smashing earnings expections quickly made history as a negative market catalyst.
Further positive news would cause temporary bounces that would be quickly sold off. For example, it was announced that $NVDA would be allowed to sell its H200 chips to China that weren't part of their guidance and the stock usually faded that news. Overall the stock at one point was trading at 22.5 forward P/E and currently trades at 24.5 forward P/E when it had previously traded at 30 forward P/E for most of the year. And those current forward numbers don't include any sales to China or OpenAI that just showcase how the market has crushed the valuation multiple assigned to the company.
To illustrate, the stock is only up a few percentage points to where it was in August while earnings estimates have done the following since then:
[Top shows current estimates while I have it on the estimates as of July 31, 2025. Note that January 2027 = estimate for 2026 \(ie. it is the end of year being estimated\). Large upward revision from $NVDA GTC + recent earnings for future years.](https://preview.redd.it/8omfc9im2u9g1.png?width=1116&format=png&auto=webp&s=995c1941774e14a7085fe777e9a7c9e0f8f281b4)
For another example, $AMZN had AWS growth surpass 20% due to AI server demand with guidance for even greater growth going forward. That earnings gap up was completely faded and that stock is up 4.6% YTD that is basically equivalent to having held cash.
There are exceptions to this price action mostly based on the memory companies like $MU that are seeing a supercycle. Those are the exception to the market calling an AI stock top and selling things on positive news as of late. The market could be incorrect in this case - but it shows a dangerous change that the market is looking for an AI top before bad news happens. It is no longer a game of selling when the AI trade looks to turn but rather a game of predicting what was the last big news catalyst to exit on.
**The OpenAI Problem**
I would have held my positions in 2026 if OpenAI hadn't been an absolute dumpster fire as of late. I bet $4,000 on IBKR's prediction market that they would regain the top AI model spot by the end of the year that would have paid out $20,000 profit should that happen. Rumors were swirling of their "code red" and they would release a new model in response to Gemini 3 dominating the AI rating charts. It would be the height of stupidity for them to rush out a model update that failed to impress and cemented them having completely given up their first mover advantage.
GPT released 5.2 and it now ranks 14th on [lmarena ](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall)as my bet will be a loss.
Now they need to raise money equivalent to a megacap's capex having squandered their lead in 2025 and having multiple launches that haven't taken off. (Anyone using their money burning Sora social media app anymore? Or their AI browser?). Sam Altman is an incredible salesperson and those invested thus far may continue to prop up the company for the IPO exit liquidity. But that isn't as guarenteed as it once was with their continued failures.
They are bleeding market share:
[Generative AI share](https://preview.redd.it/72j1hoe84u9g1.png?width=424&format=png&auto=webp&s=c0550a976f2a7f70a793512dc94187e067ebedfc)
It is hard to predict when reality will hit the company but their cash burn isn't sustainable now that they have lost their lead. I don't want to be invested when that happens and those headlines begin to drop. All of this is apparently not a unique take as there is a 200k view Youtube video that I saw after writing this part with basically the same take: [https://youtu.be/VofkcJhmKXw](https://youtu.be/VofkcJhmKXw)
**Risk Off**
As mentioned in the last update, I expect companies tied to AI to report earnings beats to start off 2026. But that strong short term performance doesn't change the longer term outlook that I agree we are in an AI bubble and that I don't really have a good reason to continue my gambling.
I started the year very strong hitting a high of around $1.9M in total cash and then dropped to around $900k in total cash at my worst point primarily from my $UNH YOLO losses. The downside of leverage hit hard. Falling below $1M again was devestating and suddenly what I used to have once again seemed out of reach. After estimated taxes, I'm now at around $2.3M that is once again an amount not easily replaced or regained if lost. As my handle implies with "1983", I'm older and that amount is technically enough to do a lean retirement. At this point, I'd just be working to enhance my retirement and that is an ideal financial position to be at.
$NVDA seems like a completely obvious play for 2026 to me. But $UNH also seemed like an obvious play earlier this year and I never imagined its decline when I bought. My primary goal should be capital preservation after this year's outperformance. So given the OpenAI situation, I'm going to just play things safe.
# Other Macro Stuff
**Healthcare Insurance**
As forecasted in past updates, the ACA expanded credits failed to be expanded. Surprisingly, healthcare insurance stocks haven't really fallen much from that news despite many of them looking at 2026 being worse than 2025 now. I'm unsure what the market is thinking here. The large increases for 2026 premiums the news have reported only covers the 2025 healthcare cost increase. It doesn't really cover the insurance pool being sicker from those that will opt to not get coverage without the expanded credits.
This may be a sector to watch after it hits 52-week lows. At that point, it may become a bet on Democrats taking the US House of Representatives as restoring the ACA expanded credits would be a priority for them. As it stands now, the sector is completely unappealing to me when fundamentals are currently declining while stock prices are \~30% above 52 week lows.
**The Death of Reliable Government Data**
The manipulation of government data has begun with setting rent/OER increase for October to 0% to get the cold CPI print: [https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2001651964128416022](https://x.com/NickTimiraos/status/2001651964128416022) . This isn't surprising considering how Trump fired the BLS head for daring to release poor job numbers in the recent past ([source](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg3xrrzdr0o)).
I think the actual match remains solid (ie. 2+2 still equals 4). However, I do believe things will be manipulated around what generates the numbers. For example, surveys for prices only sent to those least likely to have increased their prices over an actual random sample. Or just assuming good data that goes against the established trend like they did for CPI (as government layoffs hit data collection agencies hard, there will always be gaps now that require guesswork).
How this impacts things is hard to predict beyond I'll be taking such data with a grain of salt personally.
**Takes From Others**
* **Andy Constan (DampedSpring):** Has made available their October 15th newsletter about potential macro scenarios available that is an extremely interesting read: [https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Narrative-Islands.pdf](https://dampedspring.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Narrative-Islands.pdf) .
* u/vazdooh: Sees $SPY hitting between 692 and 700 coming up (leans bullish). See BTC as "coiled" and believes the likely move will be up for that asset. Video with that and more: [https://youtu.be/hbYEbO1yvBM](https://youtu.be/hbYEbO1yvBM)
* **Cem Karsan (🥐)**: Did a recent interview where the stressed the need for uncorrelated assets and that they don't see Bonds as uncorrelated from stocks. His interviews have been less interesting lately but it is still worth hearing his macro views: [https://x.com/TopTradersLive/status/2004590601870717282](https://x.com/TopTradersLive/status/2004590601870717282)
* **Thoughtful Money:** They do an hour long video every week and the one here is from last week. The content tends to have lots of repeat parts so I don't expect it to change much. They see long term returns in the market being essentially 0 from here, are bullish bonds, and overall enacourage defensive positioning in the current market: [https://youtu.be/kSem5xVlLaI](https://youtu.be/kSem5xVlLaI)
# A Quick Look Back
My first post on April 2021 had everything invested into [steel company options](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/msdv7a/yolo_going_all_in_on_steel_w_clf_mt_x_tx_stld_and/) with a total combined value of $155,261.16 among RobinHood and Fidelity. Those call positions back then in a single sector were crazy as OTM call options for around 4 months later.
I've had several extremely bad trades over the years:
* After my steel calls initially worked out well, on June 19, 2021 the market came to punish my greed as I posted an update on [blowing up my account (update #9)](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/o3n7jy/yolo_update_going_all_in_on_steel_update_9/). Total account value dropped to essentially flat at 155,599.74 (being YTD negative in RobinHood).
* Of note, this loss mirrors the recent AI trade where stocks fell on increased guidance. Much as when traders were trying to call the "top" on steel, we seem to be in a similar phase for AI.
* Losing [$450,000 betting on $AMZN completing its acquisition of $IRBT](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1ac7vks/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/) on January 2024. Regulators killed that deal leading to the fall iRobot as it declared bankruptcy a week ago ([source](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/20/roomba-bankruptcy-robot-vacuum-maker.html)).
* This trade set me on tilt as I further went into the red in my [next update on February 2024](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1atfb5b/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/).
* 2024 remained a bad year as I[ lost big betting on a memory supercycle with Micron](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1ezrals/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/). The bet would prove to be too early in hindsight. The only thing that saved me was I didn't sell the bottom and got out on a bounce instead.
* November of 2024 nearly wiped out all of my trading gains from 2021 as I [lost big betting on the election](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1gkthax/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/). This had me at over a half million loss for the year.
* I recovered a bit for the end of 2024 and had a strong 2025 start. I avoided the Tariff selloff early in 2025 but ended up buying $UNH as it dipped. That was a disaster as it would fall 60% from its ATH despite previously being a stable, low volatility "safe stock". The update where I capitulated was near the [bottom and documented here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vitards/comments/1mfyn71/yolo_update_no_longer_going_all_in_on_steel/).
There have been plenty of potential "Game Over" screens and my trading career has been one of lucky persistence. I can't say I would have outperformed a dart board as my gains overall could be attributed to leverage + the recent bull market. The above highlights losses mainly because my trading has been high risk and I've experienced extremely large drawdowns on my road to here. Part of why I'm going risk off is having experienced those drawdowns has left me with the knowledge of what it is like to lose one's gains and how one's bullish sentiment on a trade can be oh so wrong.
Also of note is that Reddit has removed around 5 of my past YOLO updates for violating their content guidelines. I have no idea why and cannot even access the content of those posts myself. That is some messed up shit that has me quite upset with Reddit.
# Current Realized Gains
**Fidelity (Taxable)**
* Realized YTD gain of $369,234. Total account value: $917,263.
[Taken From Active Fidelity Pro.](https://preview.redd.it/wblczz1g4u9g1.png?width=393&format=png&auto=webp&s=13ca55d4dd3006730b05dbfba8aede10053300a4)
**Fidelity (IRA)**
* Realized YTD gain of $20,450. Total account value: $60,912.
[Taken From Active Fidelity Pro.](https://preview.redd.it/yv37m4qj4u9g1.png?width=391&format=png&auto=webp&s=e7d56dc735e575f92cbc1fa81bef9b0dc7d87953)
**Fidelity (401k - Usually Not Included and Excluded From Totals)**
* Realized YTD gain of $326,937. Total account value: $800,831.
[Taken From Active Fidelity Pro.](https://preview.redd.it/kp9e3v8n4u9g1.png?width=391&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0dfff59288fa5695285d9e9b326d3157dcadc1f)
**IBKR (Interactive Brokers)**
* Realized YTD gain of 553,818.45. Total account value: 808,117.
[Taken from Portfolio Analyst. Total is the \\"Net Asset Change\\" change value minus the \\"Net Deposits\\" amount.](https://preview.redd.it/kl8kew406u9g1.png?width=601&format=png&auto=webp&s=ce7432211cc110faa0bbc45c7613aee8e52d7727)
**Overall Totals (excluding 401k)**
* YTD Gain of **943,502.45**
* 2024 Total Loss: **-$249,168.84**
* 2023 Total Gains: **$416,565.21**
* 2022 Total Gains: **$173,065.52**
* 2021 Total Gains: **$205,242.19**
* ~~-------------------------------------~~
* Gains since trading: **$1,489,206.53**
# Current Positions
My current positioning is about $2.2M in 20 year bonds yielding 4.75% that equates to about $105,000 per year in yield. That yield is enough to live on that guarantees financial security (albeit without covering inflation). I do agree with those that believe yields will go up a bit yet but I don't need to risk holding out for another 0.25% or so. The current yield is already attractive to me - especially now that cash in things like SPAXX only yields around 3.4%.
It may be that longer duration yields do fall next year as it is a priority of the current administration. They want the Fed to cut rates to around 2% and I believe their Fed picks would be inclined to do QE to control the yield on longer duration bonds. There might be long term consequences to that several years from now but I could see that combination temporarily working in the short term. In this case, I could sell the bonds for a profit and consider other options from there.
As for why not $VOO and chill, I feel it is likely $VOO will be cheaper at some point over the next 5 years than today. (Even if AI continues to outperform my expectations, there will be winners/losers and those losers likely will hurt the index as some companies fail. Healthcare insurance stocks should also be lower as mentioned previously). I don't need to time the bottom on that drop to start switching some cash over to it. If I'm wrong and the market only goes up from here, then I'd still be doing alright with my current positioning.
# Conclusions
That concludes 2025 on a high note as I switch to risk-off and am hopeful I stick to that going forward. I've often written about walking away from the gambling table that has come up short but there isn't any reason to continue beyond pure greed. There are those that have their luck hold up (like u/SIR_JACK_A_LOT that hit $10M) but for every one of him, there are likely dozens that gave their gains back to the market. As my favorite comic on survivorship bias goes:
[Taken from: https:\/\/xkcd.com\/1827\/](https://preview.redd.it/1dyhplhq4u9g1.png?width=635&format=png&auto=webp&s=519b2ed295af6b9a08e39b25384e2020ee28481d)
With me going risk off and focusing on safe yield, this series looks likely to go into hibernation for the time being. I've enjoyed my 4.5 years in this community but public Reddit trading boards have sadly only continued their decline. Hard to even know how many people will read this entry of this YOLO series here. My journey is about to get boring as I've hit minimum goals for a guaranteed retirement and anything further is just bonus.
I still have my account on [Bluesky](https://bsky.app/profile/bluewolf1983.bsky.social) for sporadic random updates otherwise if anyone feels inclined to follow me there. Feel free to comment to correct me if you disagree with anything I've written as I'm always open to reconsidering my current thinking. As always, these are just my personal opinions on what I'm doing with my portfolio. Thanks for reading over these past few years, happy holidays, and take care!

Technical analysis is implicitly building time series models using market/price data only (ie volume, price, other order book features). This does happen in professional quantitative finance but A LOT of other stuff is actually going into these models. Using only order book data is a lot more feasible in high frequency trading which retail cannot participate in.
I don’t think anyone who knows what’s going on would say that using price and order book data at mid frequency is completely useless. But the idea that retail can trade some particular patterns like this on like a few tickers at once and be profitable long term is very silly. Also just the idea of looking for these specific visual patterns is kind of retarded, most well specified ML time series models will learn these without the quant having to think about the exact pattern it’s learning.

Ask yourself, would marry this person? Because, you basically am just that. You need a LOT more than what you have said so far. You don't think you are ready yet.