LOT
Lotus Technology Inc.
stock NASDAQ ADR

There is a LOT to back it up, specifically with coding agents. We will likely only need to wait 6 months, not 3 years to confirm this.

Exactly what I’m thinking. If i need to save for 10 months to buy 1 oz of gold, the price may increase A LOT during that time. Better to buy fractionals monthly then.

I actually wish copilot was any good, it would have actually saved me a LOT of mindless work I really hate doing, but it just absolutely sucks. It sucks so bad.
I gave it a set of rules to remember within one "conversation", just like GPT can easily do, to clean up, rephase and format some text for me in a specific way so I don't need to do it manually each time. It remembered maybe like 1/4 of the rules.
It takes MULTIPLE attempts to correctly format a document as I ask. It SEEMS to understand what I ask (I ask it to summarize my request back to me to make sure), but keeps producing half-assed work that you have to keep checking. Then in the "revised" version it changes stuff that didn't need changing and ignores what I specifically ask it to change. 
Asking Copilot to do anything more complex than simple translation or rephrasing is wasting more time than actually doing it myself.

You can take a LOT more risks with a million dollar cushion, and risk can increase returns.
You can't make big mistakes when you are starting out. One wrong move can put you back years.

Actually my entire OPINION has to do with SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL is NOT EQUAL to ANTISEMITISM so in that way I do not need to know more about the actual Nation. I am not specifically commenting on Israel. I am commenting on the stupid damn ANTISEMITE crap that y'all run out with any time anything critical of the country gets said.
The fruit is not hanging low enough for you to manage reading comprehension.
Further, I have the damn right to have an opinion as to how my country's money gets spent, since it is collected up from me and my family and my friends and my neighbors and so on. They don't get to TAKE OUR GODDAMN MONEY then ALSO act like it's not our place to criticize what they do with it. Tell you what cut off American funding their aggressions and y'all won't have to worry about the criticism any more.
I have asked several times and I am not surprised that you won't, because no one EVER DOES, but WHAT DOES ISRAEL DO FOR THE UNITED STATES? WHY must we behave as if they are more important than any other nation or alliance on the planet? A LOT OF US REALLY WANT TO KNOW. And I am not being a smartass we NEVER get any ANSWER on that and we are talking TRILLIONS of dollars when we can't afford to give free lunch to poor children in the USA at school, so how can we afford to finance that nation that way all the damn time??!!

Why do people think it could be worthless? It has incredible market penetratation already. It does a LOT of things. Its absolutely not worthless.

One day, you’ll have a few to tens of millions. That 1% fee becomes A LOT.

**Executive Summary:**
\-Canada's Warren Buffett aggressively bought - accumulated 22.2% with extreme pace (weeks)→ 13D
\-Founder is Back → Founder Mode, premiumization and simplification are the ethos
\-Shrinking available shares
\-Refreshed Board of Directors who are buying
\-$500mm buy back authorized, 77% remains with 1.5 years left to go
\-Incentives → Outcomes
—------------------------------
“Now, if there's one thing to take away from today's call, we believe that the most disruptive phase of our reset is now behind us” - Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.
—------------------------------
Under Armour (UAA & UA) is a top tier global athletic performance brand doing billions in sales, but was being priced like it is going to fade into irrelevancy and bankruptcy; until the last quarter dropped and changed the game. Like much of retail, sellers have leaned against the stock for years, and rightfully so…they have been correct, but NOW this last quarter has displayed turnaround efforts are showing traction. This is the case for UAA (Class A shares), a hated and ignored retail stock ready for a counter attack, led by its fiery founder, Kevin Plank. 
I will cut to the chase and detail out the Executive Summary bullets. These are the main factors that are amplifying incremental inflows. Put them all together and this is a very special situation.
**-Canada's Warren Buffett aggressively bought - accumulated 22.2% within weeks→ 13D filed**
Prem Watsa is a Canadian billionaire, Fairfax Financial Holdings CEO, and commonly known as Canada's Warren Buffett.  Watsa sees the potential in UAA and believes in the turnaround playbook Kevin Plank is running. He has been accumulating UAA (Class A) and UA (Class C) since December, in size. So much so that he now has 22% of UAA AND 10% of UA. The difference between the two symbols is the SI % and the Class A has voting rights. Class C has no vote.
This isn't some rando billionaire looking to flexa. Prem Watsa made billions in the GFC with CDS, but didn't get a Hollywood movie. He has had bangers in the distressed space like The Bank of Ireland… and just look at his stock OTCMKTS: FRFHF - only up. IDK how u can bet against this guy, you would have to be regarded. Prem also bailed on 50% of his LULU position in recent filings, going heavy on UAA.
As you can imagine, this large new investor will change the float dynamics. I explore that later on in this post. Keep reading.
**Founder Mode is real - this one is short and easy** 
Stocks who are led by their founders do better in the stock market and have better innovation internally. “If you simply bought an equal-weight portfolio of founder-CEO firms from 1993–2002 and compared it to the broader market, it would have delivered \~8.3% more per year” - academic paper links below 
After stepping down in 2020, Kevin Plank returned as President and CEO of Under Armour on April 1, 2024. Almost two years into the turnaround we JUST saw a massive beat. Look at the estimates and the actual results attached. This is a well covered stock with 22 analysts, so it's not a fluke of a few analyst expectations. It was a big beat.
Trust the plan.
Consumer brands are notoriously difficult, as taste changes, but what if there was a way to reframe a brand, stick to your roots, and protect margins over time? The bet here is that UA is running a play very successfully executed by Ralph Lauren (RL - look at that chart). While UA is not in the same retail category as RL, Ralph Lauren premiumized the brand and literal price of the product. This is the ethos of the brand transformation at UAA and Kevin going founder mode.
\~\~\~Vibe Check\~\~\~\~
“Selling so much more, of so much less, at a much higher, full, retail price.”
Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.
“We really like to concentrate our growth at the ‘better’ and ‘best’ level \[referring to product quality\]. And frankly, those clear lines of segmentation have not been there. And as we said, going through this premiumization as we’re really focusing.”
Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.
\~\~He sees the problems and is attacking\~\~
“For multiple seasons, we tried to grow by expanding the assortment, more styles, more price points, more incremental updates…. That diluted volume pressured margins and increased inventory risk……..We are addressing each of these. We are exiting low productivity styles, reducing redundant SKUs and eliminating launches”
Kevin Plank, UA Founder & CEO on the Q3 2026 earnings call on Feb. 6, 2026.
This is the founder mode strat and the market loved it, trading up by 19% Friday on the numbers. I think this could just be the beginning. Zoom out, this stock has done nothing for 10 years. See historical chart.
**-Public float has shrunk**
Large chunks of UAA shares are held by 2 key players that have an interest in the long run. If you remove Plank and Prem from the public float, the available shares to buy get interesting fast. 
Prem Watsa is a key player in these adjustment calcs. As a 10%+ holder who recently changed his 13G to a 13D, his shares are basically locked up for 6 months unless he wants to forfeit UAA profits to the company, which obviously he does not want to do. This is because of the SEC's Section 16 Short-Swing Profit Rule. See links below that explain. DYODD on the float dynamics, BUT in short, I estimate 41% of the UAA shares are locked away per the rules and long term incentives.THEN on top of that, it is 28% short as of now. The real short interest is closer to **48%** after removing Plank and Prem from the share count, as those guys are not selling.
**Share Buyback Program**
“The company also announced that its Board of Directors has authorized the repurchase of up to $500 million of Under Armour's outstanding Class C common stock. Repurchases under this program may be made over the next three years through various methods, including accelerated share repurchase, open market, or privately negotiated transactions. “
While buyback execution is not guaranteed, it does not hurt for there to be another bid in the stock over the next 460ish days left in the program. If executed, this is about $385mm inflows or 10% of the UAA current market cap...further tightening the float. Being anything but long a buyback seems regarded, u think outsiders know the business more than an insider? A founder? cap
**-Incentives → Outcomes**
A lot of turnarounds fail. IMHO, this one has too many parties with too much size for it to fail. Show me the incentives (they are invested heavily) and I'll show you the outcome. Moreover, the track records of those involved are impressive. But that does not mean it can't be improved.
The new board members announced on Apr 15, 2025 have not bought enough shares, I would imagine they need to align themselves with equity holders more. Dawn N. Fitzpatrick, Eugene D. Smith, and Robert J. Sweeney were added to the board, it needed to be refreshed to cement a real turnaround. Of the new members, 2 bought shares, not sure what this Eugene D. Smith guy is doing…not getting onboard. I don't like that. 
A few days later tho, Mohamed El-Erian, the PIMCO guy, got 100k shares of UA and 100k shares of UAA. Not a lot of money relative to the opportunity and his stack I'm guessing, this is disappointing and needs to change. If you plan on steering this ship, the Chairman of the Board should have A LOT more skin in the game. They should be in the market buying as soon as their blackout period post the last quarter opens i estimate.
**Future Catalysts**
Olympics, World Cup, working out culture, MAHA, Stephen Curry and Under Armour Breakup → New big athlete?, Existing athletes pop off, EMEA & Latin America sales are cooking, extra cold winter, activism and insider buys are all future catalysts
Thus far, a low Key idea, and if the sales engine gets going...look out above. im long a lot.

I think the reasoning “haven’t seen any negative impact from AI” to be a poor reason for investing and shows a lack of proper understanding of the opposing thesis.
The opposing thesis is that AI will end up being a commodity. Something that every tech company will need to implement to stay competitive (and thus, no downside because it’s a positive thing), but it will be so capex heavy that ultimately leads to no increased profitability. In summary, the trend is ROIC will go down, much how like textiles used to be good businesses until it wasn’t.
And honestly. I think the opposing thesis has a LOT of validity. So if you’re going to go against it, you should have proper reasoning to why this thesis won’t pan out the way it hypothesizes. Dismissing it and thinking “first mover advantage” in my view is not really being intellectually honest.

Some diamonds are worth A LOT while others are worthless. Big natural diamonds are worth a lot, especially if they’re flawless. Tiny diamonds are completely worthless.
It’s easy to make a bunch of tiny diamonds, you can get them from an uncut stone even if it has flaws. It’s easy to find diamonds that can be made into a bunch of tiny diamonds, it’s very hard to find diamonds that are big enough to make a big cut stone while being relatively flawless, those are the expensive diamonds.
This really only applies to natural stones

You can crash and cripple the entire protocol with just 1%.
3% is nothing when spread... under one entity, it is A LOT.

in other words 50% sounds like alot, but taking 50% less than planned loss , yes that is actually A LOT , lot of savings that adds up over time

Been getting promotions every year while working half as much as my coworkers because I'm not clinically brain dead.
By the way if any of you need a reference, let's just say I have a LOT of sway at Walmart.

I looked into these last summer. The gist was that the power requirements were too high and the capacity was too low. The machines use a LOT of power per acre, and cover ground very slowly. The fuel alone would be in the range of $10-20/acre/pass, and you'd have to do at least three passes per season for grain crops. If you're thinking of building small drones that could recharge from banks of solar panels, the system cost would probably be more than the current cost of the farmland.
The machines currently being designed are for vegetables, that have a much higher harvest value and shorter growing season, so you might only make one pass per harvest. Any system using the current type machines is going to involve a lot of tillage too. That has its own set of trade offs, though it probably is necessary for most vegetable production.

Take this as the ramblings of a nobody, but I'm very skeptical that the economics of the market right now represent an AI bubble. Tech stocks have been punished for the last six months. Even though AI companies talk about lofty goals of raising tons of debt capital in order to build new server farms, they are getting a LOT of pushback on those ideas.
When I see things like Amazon having to lay off 30,000 people in order to raise the capital for their AI buildout (rather than financing through debt), I see that the market isn't just blindly financing AI like they did the dot coms in the Dot Com Bubble.
And speaking of layoffs... AI is creating its own deflationary pressures on the economy with all of the layoffs. Yeah, increased productivity and lower cost of human capital are great, until you realize that now consumers in general don't have enough money to buy your products anymore. The AI visionaries have stomped on the gas pedal so hard that they've flooded the economic engine.
Tech is increasingly driving modern life, so the fact that the Magnificent 7 are driving the bulk of the growth of VOO isn't a fluke or a bubble.
AI stocks seem to have stalled out right now, but I don't expect that to last forever. Tech is not going anywhere.
But what we DO need is a social component to this AI revolution. And the Republicans currently in power are incapable of crafting that social revolution. It's quite possible we have a few years of recession, until we can get the GOP out of the White House.

The advantage to rounds is they’re cheaper. The disadvantage is, sometimes they’re a LOT cheaper … and one of those periods may be when you need to sell.
If you’re focusing on future liquidation ease (and you’re in the USA) you definitely want ASEs.
One of the biggest refineries in the USA changed its bid (offers to buy) sheet a month or two back, basically said that for *anything* except ASEs (or that mint’s own rounds) they would *only* buy .999 silver at $10 to $15 below spot.
Yes you read that right.
If you’re already able to buy .999 generic at $10-15 below spot, then that’s not bad, you’re already pricing in a future haircut. Otherwise … it’s worth several dollars of premium to get ASEs. Really.

LOL a LOT!

Having more coins doesnt equal more votes or control. Thats why bitcoins where it is. You have A LOT of research about bitcoin to do if this is your thought process. run a node if you want a vote your vote counts just as much as everyone else's even someone with million of coins

I am definitely increasing my percentage of cash. I've been an Engineer for 30ish years now, and this AI circus smells a LOT like the dot bomb crash of 2001.

[Proof](https://imgur.com/a/Dt2hsC3)
**Metal Pricing Used** Silver $75.68, Gold $4930
**DUE TO TIME CONSTRAINTS WE WILL BE MAKING ANOTHER POST FOR GOLD TOMORROW, PLEASE MESSAGE ME IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR ANYTHING**
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