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NCNA (NuCana) – Short Squeeze Setup & Technical Outlook
TLDR & SOURCES AT THE BOTTOM
🔍 Quick Setup
NCNA is flashing signs of a potential short squeeze setup. Key stats at a glance:
Short Interest: ~29 million shares short (about 7.6% of outstanding shares). Some sources indicate an extremely high short interest relative to the tradeable float (over 100% of the float shorted) – hinting at a crowded short trade.
Days to Cover (DTC): ⏳ Roughly 1 day to cover on average volume. This is very low (thanks to huge trading volumes), meaning shorts could theoretically cover quickly if volume stays high – but it also shows how elevated the volume has been lately.
Borrow Fee Rate:
📈 Around 17% annualized fee to short (recently). It was even higher (~25–30%+) earlier in July , so while it’s come down, it’s still painfully expensive for short sellers to hold positions. A rising borrow fee signals shorts under pressure.
Utilization:
✅ Likely very high (shares are hard to borrow). Nearly all available shares are being used – one broker showed only ~10M shares left to lend. This indicates limited supply for new shorts and suggests existing shorts have piled in to the max.
Analyst Upside:
Believe it or not, some analysts have issued sky-high long-term targets (multi-dollar prices – one even as high as $150 per share). While those targets date from earlier optimistic coverage (and should be taken with skepticism), they underscore the massive upside envisioned if the company’s pipeline succeeds. In short, NCNA has huge gain potential if fortunes turn.
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📊 Technical Levels
NCNA is a penny stock right now (~$0.06/share), but it’s been trading with explosive volume and volatility. Here are the key technical levels and what to watch:
Resistance to Break:
The stock faces a hurdle around $0.07–$0.08. This area was a recent high after its initial rebound off the lows. A break above ~$0.08 with strong momentum could be the start of a bigger move. The next psychological level would be $0.10 (a dime) – which is both a mental barrier and roughly where the stock stalled during an earlier spike in June. Clearing $0.10 would be huge, potentially flipping the trend bullish in the short term.
Support:
Around $0.05 (5 cents) is the current support floor. This roughly corresponds to recent consolidation levels after the stock bounced off all-time lows. It’s also near the price of a recent financing, so buyers have been defending this area. If $0.05 fails, the next support would be the all-time low (~$0.03), but that was an extreme level hit during a forced sell-off – bulls definitely want to see $0.05 hold.
Trading Range:
In the past week, NCNA has mostly ranged in the mid-single-digit cents, with higher lows creeping up. Watch for tightening range and volume dry-up – that often precedes a breakout in penny squeeze plays. A move over $0.07 on big volume could quickly airlift it toward $0.10+.
Volume Watch:
Volume is key. NCNA has been trading hundreds of millions of shares per day (yes, really – e.g. 330+ million shares average recently). We want to see a surge above the average volume on any breakout move. If a price breakout (say past $0.08) coincides with a volume spike well above normal, it could trigger a cascade (market makers and shorts scrambling). Conversely, if volume suddenly dries up, shorts might reassert control. So keep an eye on the volume bars – they’ve been a huge part of NCNA’s story lately.
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🎯 Upcoming Catalysts
Mark your calendars for August 8, 2025. On that date, NuCana will implement a major ADS ratio change (effectively a **1-for-200 reverse split). This corporate action will shrink the float dramatically – every 200 existing shares will be consolidated into 1 share. The goal is to boost the ADS price and regain compliance with Nasdaq’s minimum bid price requirement. Here’s why this matters: after August 8, the share count will drop from ~380 million to ~1.9 million, and the stock price will be ~200x higher (so ~$0.06 becomes ~$12). The fundamentals don’t change with a split, but a higher price and tiny float could scare some shorts or make the stock easier to margin (some funds can’t short cheap pennies easily). It also buys the company time by avoiding a delisting (they had a compliance deadline of Dec 15, 2025 due to trading under $1, and even a warning for trading under $0.10) . In short, Aug 8 is a pivotal date – expect volatility around that reverse split event.
Beyond that, a few other catalysts to watch:
Potential Short Squeeze Triggers:
Any unexpected positive news could light the fuse given the high short exposure. This could be an update on a clinical trial, a partnership, or even just an earnings surprise. Notably, NuCana is a biotech with ongoing cancer drug trials – data readouts are expected later in 2025 for their studies (e.g. an expansion trial of NUC-7738 in melanoma, and Phase 1b/2 data for NUC-3373 in solid tumors) . While those may be a bit farther out, even a hint or interim update could spark speculation.
Earnings/Financial Updates:
The company’s Q2 2025 results will likely come out around late August or early September (their Q1 came in early June). Given the recent financing moves, investors will watch for updates on cash runway and R&D progress. (Good news: they raised cash and now expect to fund operations into late 2026 , so no immediate need for dilution). Any confirmation of extended cash runway or reduced burn rate can relieve one of the bearish pressures.
Market/Peer Moves:
NCNA has been moving in sympathy with other penny-stock biotech squeezes. Keep an eye on the penny stock space and any meme-stock sentiment. For example, stocks like Healthcare Triangle (HCTI) had big runs recently ; if that sector heats up again or if retail traders rotate back into NCNA, it could amplify momentum.
In summary, August 8 (reverse split) is the nearest known catalyst circled in red. Surrounding that, remain vigilant for any pipeline news or even rumor mills – in a heavily shorted micro-cap, even a small spark can ignite a big move.
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💬 Why This Matters
Why are we excited about this setup? Here’s why NCNA’s situation is compelling:
Shorts are Overexposed:
A huge portion of the true float is sold short. With over 80–100% of the public float shorted , this is the kind of extreme short interest that fueled past legendary squeezes. It creates a powder keg – if the price starts rising, shorts will all try to exit at once, but there simply aren’t enough shares not shorted for an easy exit. That’s classic squeeze fuel.
Shorts are Paying (and Hurting):
The cost to borrow shares is very high (teens to 20+% range). This means each day shorts are paying fees to stay in the trade. Their trade is literally costing them money daily. If the stock begins an uptrend, the pain of those fees plus mark-to-market losses can force shorts to cover (buy back shares) — which in turn drives the price higher, a vicious cycle for them. In short, the pressure is on the shorts’ side.
Float is Shrinking:
With the upcoming 1-for-200 consolidation, the number of shares in circulation will plummet. Post-split, NCNA will have a tiny float. While the short positions will adjust in proportion, a low-float stock can trade erratically and with larger price swings. Even moderate buying can cause outsized moves when only a few million shares exist. Shorts know this; some may close out before the split to avoid the uncertainty. This float reduction is like taking away ammo from the shorts.
Wild Past Moves – Proof of Concept:
We’ve already seen NCNA’s ability to spike hard. In early July, despite delisting fears, the stock surged ~50% in one day on speculation. In June it jumped over 30–40% on a positive trial snippet . Even just last week it went from ~$0.03 to ~$0.06 (a 100% gain) in a short span. These swings show that once momentum kicks in, NCNA can run fast and far. Shorts have been able to push it back down so far, but each spike demonstrates the upside torque in this name. If a true squeeze kicks off, those percentage gains could compound quickly (and remember, post-split, a move of a few dollars would equate to tens of cents now – still big in % terms).
Fundamental Backstop (High Risk ≠ No Value):
Let’s be clear – NuCana is a high-risk biotech with no revenue, but it’s not a scam or dead end company. They have real cancer drug candidates, and enough cash to keep R&D going for a couple of years. Insiders and institutions hold a large chunk of shares, indicating some still believe in the science. This matters because it means there’s fundamental “option value” – if any trial succeeds or a partnership comes, the stock’s intrinsic value could be significantly higher. Shorts betting purely on bankruptcy or dilution may have overstayed now that dilution risks (like the warrant overhang) have been mitigated (the company canceled ~59.5M warrants recently). In other words, NCNA has survival time and a pipeline, which make an outright zero less likely in the near term. That erodes the shorts’ core thesis and strengthens the case for a rebound.
In summary, NCNA presents a perfect storm setup: heavily shorted float, costly to stay short, a major corporate action catalyst, growing retail interest, and the proven capacity for sharp moves. All the ingredients for a squeeze are in place – it just needs a spark and enough buying pressure to set it off. Of course, nothing is guaranteed (the stock has been beaten down for a reason – it’s essentially a “go big or go bust” biotech), but the asymmetry here is what’s attractive: the downside is a few cents, but the upside on a squeeze or successful news could be multiples of the current price.
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⚙️ Trade Idea (Not Financial Advice)
High risk, high reward. That’s the simple way to frame any trade in NCNA. If you’re considering playing this setup, here is one hypothetical approach:
🟢 Entry Idea:
Look for a break above $0.07 with heavy volume as a potential entry trigger. Buying as close to support (~$0.05) as possible is ideal for risk/reward, but confirmation of an up-move reduces the chance of false breakouts. A strong push past $0.07–$0.08 (recent resistance) on big volume could signal that a squeeze rally is starting. Some traders might scale in earlier around $0.05–$0.06, but be aware that’s knife-catching territory. Waiting for momentum to flip in your favor (even if it means paying a penny or two more) can be safer in a play like this.
🔴 Stop Loss:
A reasonable stop might be just below $0.05 (under the key support level). If the price falls back into the $0.04s on high volume, it likely means the squeeze attempt failed or is delayed, and you don’t want to be caught in a downdraft. Protect yourself – this is a tiny stock and can be volatile both ways. Define your risk tolerance (every cent on the stock is ~20% at these prices!). Only use capital you’re willing to lose, as this is speculative.
🎯 Price Targets:
In the short-term, if a squeeze kicks in, we could see $0.10+ fairly quickly. That would be ~70%+ upside from current levels. Should $0.10 break, the next zone is ~$0.12–$0.15 (which were intraday highs during the June rally). It might even overshoot if momentum feeds on itself – remember, we’ve seen 50%+ single-day jumps . Keep in mind the reverse split: post-split, these targets translate to around $20–$30 (so don’t be shocked if the price suddenly changes on Aug 8 – the percentage gains are what matter). For a full squeeze scenario, it’s not impossible to imagine a move that doubles or more. Some optimistic folks are eyeing the equivalent of $0.20 ($40 post-split) or higher. However, it’s wise to take profits on the way up. If you get a big spike in your favor, scale out gradually – these plays can reverse quickly once shorts start covering and new buyers exhaust.
Catalyst Play:
Another angle is to hold through the August 8 split and bet that shorts will cover afterward due to the new low-float situation. This is higher risk (splits sometimes see sell-offs if traders bail), but if the stock holds up post-split, the low float could allow for outsized runs. Keep an eye on how the stock acts into the split – strength into the event could mean shorts are getting antsy. Weakness into the event could mean an opportunity to accumulate for a post-split bounce, but only if you have conviction and can stomach volatility.
Disclaimer: This trade idea is NOT financial advice. It’s a high-risk trade plan for a speculative situation. Do your own due diligence. NCNA is highly volatile and things can go south fast. Always use a plan that fits your risk tolerance.
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TL;DR: NCNA has a textbook short squeeze setup – high short interest, low float, high borrow fee, and a big catalyst (1-for-200 reverse split on Aug 8) coming. The technicals show a coiled spring around $0.05–$0.07. If it breaks out with volume, we could see a swift move toward $0.10+ (and beyond, if the squeeze really gets going). This is a high-risk, high-reward play – but the stars seem to be aligning. Keep your eyes on it, stay safe with position size, and let’s see if NuCana can deliver that “nuclear” short-squeeze 🚀. Good luck and be careful out there!
Sources:
1. MarketBeat – NCNA Short-Interest Snapshot (4.53 M shares short; 108 % of float, DTC ≈ 0 day – June 30 2025 data)
2. Fintel – Intraday Borrow-Fee & Shares-Available Feed (live table shows 17–26 % CTB and only 10 M shares left to lend)
3. ChartExchange – Interactive Brokers Borrow-Fee Tick (latest hard-to-borrow print: 17.57 % with 10 M shares)
4. CompaniesMarketCap – Daily Cost-to-Borrow Chart (confirming borrow fee > 17 % and limited availability)
5. GlobeNewswire Press Release – 1-for-200 ADS Reverse-Split Effective Aug 8 2025 (details ratio change & Nasdaq-compliance rationale)
6. StockTitan – Q1 2025 Results & Pipeline Update (cash runway into Q4 2026; NUC-7738 & NUC-3373 clinical milestones)
7. Nasdaq / Quiver-Quant – Expansion Study Announced for NUC-7738 (Phase 1b/2 melanoma combo; initial data expected Q4 2025)
8. ClinicalTrials.gov – NuTide:701 Trial Record (NCT03829254) (official design & patient cohort info for NUC-7738)
9. AdisInsight – 2025 Regulatory-Guidance Milestone for NUC-7738 (FDA meeting & pivotal-trial planning)
10. Fintel Short-Sale Volume Table (FINRA off-exchange short-volume ratios > 55 % of daily trading)

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