HAS Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

maybe..but there is significant uncertainty in the global markets....and crypto is not excluded from that uncertainty.

why uncertainty.?
borrowing lending is likely going to get much more expensive as the fed rate is likely to go up wrt inflation
the iran war is not really over...maybe kinetically, it's a pause, but there remains the very real threat of problems in the straits of hormuz This has very real implications about supply of energy and goods. No one really knows if the so called peace deal will be honored.
the entire tech market is going through a sell off, and this is happening globally. AI, data centers, robotics, the classic tech companies are struggling to find new investors at these absolutely overvalued prices. Crypto if it has correlation to anything, it is with tech stocks. Should they sell off, crypto will sell off. The correlation is about .68. tracks reasonably consistent and one should expect that to continue.
crypto still has a problem (more than one actually) because congress can't find a way to pass a clarity bill. Without regulation, big investors are reducing risks, or putting massive hedges until something get put into law.

and last but not least is the very real inflationary condition. retail investors are not the only sector impacted by higher prices and lower purchasing power. private equity and loans are hard to come by and that is how the big money trades in crypto...lower interest rates and a better economy is unlikely. this will produce a far less likelihood of crypto being the kind of investment vehicle it once was.

now...here is what the power law measures. And if crypto has conformed to one particular law, then it would be the power law. There is not reason why it could uncouple from the power law, but it never actually every has. Not once. A few times, very close, but never actually crashing past it.
if you don't understand the power law, get acquainted. It's not terribly difficult math, but the thesis is hard to grasp for the newbie. Read over it and discuss.

now for the figures for bitcoin...these are the three bounds calculated by the power law
582,000 - this is exuberance...resistance...the power law does not explain when this happens, only that it happens AFTER regression is met.
165,000 - regression (also called mid bounds). Regression happens AFTER either a High Bound is met or a low bounds (support is met)...we will come back to this very important point below\*1
58,700 - low bounds (support) ...this is the hard floor
and where are we? the all time high never made it to 582K, nor did 165K get hit either. But where is price now...it recently hit the low bounds support 58,000....it actually went slightly below that...a rounding error I don't think we should put too much attention on. It's close enough to call that the LOW BOUNDS HAS BEEN HIT.

that establishes the hard floor. And what do we expect after...price to regression, then probably another swing down to test the NEW lower bounds (see, the power law is not static, it changes based on all price points up and down for bitcoin from the genesis block all the way out to 2040 when the last of the last remaining 1 million bitcoin will be mined! So the values change. they change in response to both bull and bear markets but are biased toward bitcoin getting a higher price over time. The culprit is obvious...bitcoin is a limited supply asset, AND it will become more and more difficult and expensive to mine the last remaining 1 million coins. This is a non trivial factor that very few other crypto assets have. Bitcoin does have some flaws, and it is possible that either those get resolved or a competitor, yet to be named/discovered, will take the crown. but for the foreseeable future, crypto holds that crown and it's unlikely to be succeeded anytime soon. So the power law is likely to continue to be a very good measure of what to expect and to predict.
I actually posted these values several weeks ago in this thread, or maybe it was another.
Per the power law, the floor has been set. This is a mathematically derivation. it is not a guarantee that bitcoin will find support at 58K ish...it could crash far below that level. There is no guarantee that price will ramp up and hit regression either. Obviously it never made it from 125 to 165K when it "should have completed" that leg. That is probably the most damning evidence that bitcoin has "decoupled" from the power law as a general method of predicting growth. This last point has to be made. crypto is one of the most volative risk on assets. Even though the power law has been very effective in the past to predict large swing points and targets, there are no actual LAWS that force bitcoin to continue to validate the power law theory. But I have the general opinion, that IF bitcoin no longer conforms to the power law, there are actually no good reason to invest in it. This is why I expressly suggested that you learn what the power law is. the essense of it..and why it happens to explain bitcoin very very well. But like anything things can change...and so we watch what happens at 58K. If that fails by a non trivial value...say 2000 points and a daily candle can't beat back up past 58K and remains below it for more than a one month period, it's likely that there is something fundamentally "wrong" about bitcoin. So the lower bounds, also operates as a litmus test...a no go gauge. For me, if bitcoin breaks below 58K, I am not a buyer. I am a sellor and moving investments back into high yield bonds. the safe money...
God Bless America

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