FAST
Fastenal Co
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Those green candles at market-open this morning were another big sign that ETF's are shopping again, and the daily report confirms it.
Today's BTC inflows clocked in at **+$697 Million**, with ETH inflows at **+$168 Million**. That's one of the highest days of inflow in... a very long time lol.
ETF's have bought *$1.168 Billion* in Bitcoin in just the first two business days of 2026. Holy crap, they're swooping back in FAST.

Think option is the way to get rich FAST

🔥🔥🔥Should all sell FAST!! Great prices.

My Take is that We have to wait for two things:
1) is 4th Qtr Profit in short run.
2) V2G (Vehicle to Grid) China Contract. NIO is the only Company invited and 100 people tested it.

SIDE NOTE: All the Venezuela stuff is not about OIL or Democracy. It is about ENERGY (Of which OIL is one). USA(We) are Largest OIL producer but majority is due to SHALE which is achieved through Fracking (Sending Water in Ground to get OIL and Gas out). This is good for GASOLINE ONLY and nothing else. Besides USA Refineries sit idle. Venezuela has HEAVY Crude which besides Gasoline has enough material left over to Produce DIESEL and other Products like VASELINE and also Make-up creams & Gels. etc. DIESEL is needed for Trucking and Cargo ships which is the main engine of US and Global Economy. and Refineries continue to produce.

EV adoption in USA is not adopting FAST enough nor Far enough. TESLA is the only one. LUCID(10k Cars in 2025), RIVIAN (43,500 cars in 2025) and others are all failing. 18-wheelers Electric Company NIKOLA is Bankrupt and Closed down.
Global demand for energy and Need to regulate Energy. If CHINA can get V2G contract to NIO then we will be in business. Otherwise Besides CHINA and may be Europe, EVs may be out and we still go another 30 years on Crude Oil.

I still say that Battery Swap USE-Cases are just beginning to emerge:
1) Can be used in Power Grid (These are stations)
2) V2G (where Cars can be asked to come to Stations via APP in Peak hours and get new battery during off hours). Owners can also make money
3) New Stricter rules on Battery Safety means , newer Battery can be available and swapped out as Battery Makeup emerges such as (SOlid State, Safety etc.)

So We all need to be patient. !!!
1) USA has its Strategy (They see EVs not working out for long term)
2) China has its Strategy (ALL in on EVs, and Battery Swapping is a Key Component for Energy Regulation) and more production as well.

Those green candles at market-open this morning were another big sign that ETF's are shopping again, and the daily report confirms it.
Today's BTC inflows clocked in at **+$697 Million**, with ETH inflows at **+$168 Million**. That's one of the highest days of inflow in... a very long time lol.
ETF's have bought *$1.168 Billion* in Bitcoin in just the first two business days of 2026. Holy crap, they're swooping back in FAST.

Think option is the way to get rich FAST

🔥🔥🔥Should all sell FAST!! Great prices.

My Take is that We have to wait for two things:
1) is 4th Qtr Profit in short run.
2) V2G (Vehicle to Grid) China Contract. NIO is the only Company invited and 100 people tested it.

SIDE NOTE: All the Venezuela stuff is not about OIL or Democracy. It is about ENERGY (Of which OIL is one). USA(We) are Largest OIL producer but majority is due to SHALE which is achieved through Fracking (Sending Water in Ground to get OIL and Gas out). This is good for GASOLINE ONLY and nothing else. Besides USA Refineries sit idle. Venezuela has HEAVY Crude which besides Gasoline has enough material left over to Produce DIESEL and other Products like VASELINE and also Make-up creams & Gels. etc. DIESEL is needed for Trucking and Cargo ships which is the main engine of US and Global Economy. and Refineries continue to produce.

EV adoption in USA is not adopting FAST enough nor Far enough. TESLA is the only one. LUCID(10k Cars in 2025), RIVIAN (43,500 cars in 2025) and others are all failing. 18-wheelers Electric Company NIKOLA is Bankrupt and Closed down.
Global demand for energy and Need to regulate Energy. If CHINA can get V2G contract to NIO then we will be in business. Otherwise Besides CHINA and may be Europe, EVs may be out and we still go another 30 years on Crude Oil.

I still say that Battery Swap USE-Cases are just beginning to emerge:
1) Can be used in Power Grid (These are stations)
2) V2G (where Cars can be asked to come to Stations via APP in Peak hours and get new battery during off hours). Owners can also make money
3) New Stricter rules on Battery Safety means , newer Battery can be available and swapped out as Battery Makeup emerges such as (SOlid State, Safety etc.)

So We all need to be patient. !!!
1) USA has its Strategy (They see EVs not working out for long term)
2) China has its Strategy (ALL in on EVs, and Battery Swapping is a Key Component for Energy Regulation) and more production as well.

You are right, thanks for pointing out. Moving average computation and entry can be fixed by shifting the moving average by 1
df['fast_ma'] = df['close'].rolling(FAST_MA).mean().shift(1)
df['slow_ma'] = df['close'].rolling(SLOW_MA).mean().shift(1)
I only see one on the stop, a good solution would be exit at next candle open. I will edit and upload again.

Okay so I'm probably going to get roasted for this but whatever.
I've been testing this "value + quality" thing everyone keeps talking about. You know the drill - buy cheap stocks (low PE/PB) but ONLY if they have good ROE and growing profits. Smart money stuff. Graham + Buffett. Can't go wrong right?
Wrong. So wrong.
Ran this from 2006 to mid-2025. Every 6 months I rebalanced - sold the losers, bought the new cheap+quality stocks. Kept detailed records because I'm that guy.
\*\*Here's what nobody tells you:\*\*
\*\*1. "Quality" stocks crash HARDER than garbage\*\*
My max drawdown: \*\*-64%\*\*
Nifty 50: -55%
Yeah you read that right. My fancy "high quality high ROE" portfolio got absolutely murdered 9% MORE than the regular index.
Everyone talks about quality like its this magical shield. "Oh just buy companies with high ROE and you'll sleep well during crashes." Bull. Shit.
You know what happens during 2008? EVERYTHING crashes. Your "quality" stocks with 25% ROE? Down 60%. Why? Because half of them were using debt to juice those returns. And the other half were in cyclical sectors that looked great until they didn't.
\*\*2. The tax thing is actually insane\*\*
This one really pissed me off when I calculated it.
I made 15.4% returns on paper. Sounds great right?
After taxes and costs: \*\*11.38%\*\*
That's \*\*4% gone every single year\*\*. Over 18 years that's the difference between ₹7 crore and ₹3.6 crore. Literally HALF my money gone.
Here's the breakdown that made me want to throw my laptop:
\- Brokerage and STT: 0.9% (fine whatever)
\- Slippage: 0.4% (annoying but ok)
\- \*\*TAXES: 2.7%\*\* ← WTF
Why so much tax? Because I'm rebalancing every 6 months like a good systematic investor. Which means 60% of my stocks get sold between 6-11 months. That's STCG. 15% gone.
Only 40% make it past 12 months for that sweet 10% LTCG.
\*\*Do you realize what this means?\*\* The tax structure in India basically PUNISHES you for being systematic. You're literally better off being lazy and holding for years. But then your factor signals go stale and you end up holding garbage.
It's a trap.
\*\*3. But here's the weird part - recovery was FAST\*\*
My portfolio recovered in \*\*7 months\*\*
Nifty took \*\*5 YEARS\*\*
This is the only thing that made the strategy actually work. When you're down 64%, you need to gain 178% just to break even. Somehow this stupid strategy did it in 7 months while Nifty took 60 months.
Why? Best guess - cheap stocks + improving fundamentals = mean reversion on steroids. Market overreacts both ways.
\*\*4. I compared this to momentum - momentum won on literally everything except recovery\*\*
Momentum strategy I tested earlier:
\- Returns: 14% vs my 11.4%
\- Drawdown: -70% vs my -64% (so 6% worse)
\- Recovery: 65 months vs my 7 months (9x slower)
So momentum gives you better returns, slightly worse crashes, but takes FOREVER to recover. Value-quality gives you worse returns, still bad crashes, but recovers super fast.
\*\*My brutally honest take:\*\*
\*\*The "quality" premium in India is a meme.\*\* There I said it. Everyone's been buying this narrative that you just need to buy good companies at reasonable prices and you'll be fine. You won't. You'll crash just as hard as everyone else, maybe harder.
The ONLY advantage I found was recovery speed. And honestly? That matters. Being underwater for 5 years vs 7 months is the difference between retiring on time or working 5 more years.
\*\*But the tax structure is absolutely criminal for systematic strategies.\*\* You're basically choosing between:
\- Rebalance frequently = good signals, terrible taxes
\- Rebalance annually = okay taxes, stale signals
\- Rebalance never = no taxes, definitely holding garbage
There's no winning move.
\*\*Real question for people here:\*\*
Am I missing something? Like is there actually a way to do systematic factor investing in India without getting destroyed by STCG?
Because right now it feels like the entire approach is designed for:
1. US markets (where there's no STCG/LTCG nonsense)
2. People with crores who can afford 2.7% annual tax drag
3. Institutions who have different tax treatment
For regular people? I'm starting to think just buying index and holding forever is actually the smart move, even though it feels wrong.
\*\*PS:\*\* Before someone reports me - yes I know this is historical data, yes I know past performance doesn't mean anything, yes I consulted my CA, no I'm not telling you to do anything. This is just me venting about what I learned. Do your own research, talk to SEBI registered advisors, don't be an idiot with your money.
\---
Also if anyone wants to argue about methodology or thinks I messed up the calculations, happy to discuss. Maybe I did something wrong and this whole post is pointless lol.
Data was Nifty 500 stocks, included delisted companies so no survivorship bias, modeled realistic transaction costs. Portfolio was 50 stocks equal weighted, rebalanced June and December.
Anyway. Rant over. Back to my regular job where at least the taxes make sense.