ARM
Arm Holdings plc
stock NASDAQ ADR

1. Fair but a lot of stuff can be o rained outside of Apple Store without any major issues. Even on iPad you can find ways to side load some shit. Regular consumer don't care tho and that's why it's happening - 99,9% of users download the same 30apps no matter the OS so a walled garden play in their favour because apps are way way more stable because everything is tailored for set OS and hardware.
2. Is it a really a reason to hate a company? Innovation happens behind closed doors and not always most innovative idea is the best one. There is so much stuff that came and go over the years and from business stand point it's way smarter to improve existing concepts than just blindly innovate. And I would argue their implementation of ARM was a huge innovation and super beneficial for all customers no matter the OS. And again as an old head i can't find any innovation on PC or Android side of things that I can't live without atm. Are foldable a fun? Yes for first 3months and after that novelty disappears.
3. Apple just don't have these Uber budget editions but if you want buy premium PC or a phone their competitors are equally expensive. The upgrades are too expensive and I think that's the think requires hate

Last week I commented in the last earnings thread. Who wants my two cents for this week? 
LAST WEEK: Look at CVLT. They ran up insanly this year. Old legacy tech, but they actually are profitable and there are rumors about a takeover. The sympathy play is my darling RBRK, which has 80% margins and is growing like a mofo. Calls on RBRK. Next up F. They will talk about building batteies, we might see 15.5$ - 16$ on that news alone. BA will be flat. I wanted to buy GLW in the 30ies where it stayed for years, now it's at 140$ with ATH at 220 couple weeks back. Puts. CLS calls. CHIPS CHIPS CHIPS. UPS announces lay-offs. Bullish. APLD calls, we still in the AI buildout, they are 50% off from market highs. ENPH puts. MSFT puts might be ruckd by IV crush. STX calls, but also IV crush. V calls because they will talk about AI and Agent transactions using their shitcoins just like MA. QCOM calls because a folding Robot is good publicity. ARM calls because chips. THEREFORE AVGO FREAKING BIG CALLS. VRT calls because energy. BE calls because energy. FTNT puts, but ZS calls. AAPL puts because we are in risk-on mode - FOMC will be cool - and those guys are risk-off we don't do ANY risk with ANYTHING boring. Calls on AVGO GOOG RBRK ZS and my darling NOW. 
Edit: CVLT I was wring it dumped. RBRK flat. CLS opened flat after being up 8% in AH but recovered end if week, I was right. GLW tanked I was right but it recovered almost 90$ eow. APDL tanked but ended flat eow. I was wrong. ENPH was flat, I was wrong. Didn't recommend puts on MSFT, I was right. STX dumped, but ended flat eow, I was wrong. V and MA I was right. Holy shit was I wrong about QCOM. I was wrong about ARM, it dumped. Wrong about VRT as well. BE calls I was right. FTNT and ZS I was right.AAPL I was right.Calls on GOOG and NOW printed I am proud if my F calls. Literally hit my 16$ target. 

So new deepseek is at opus 4.8 level at \~20x lower cost...
Here's what it means according to AI.
it will trigger Jevons' Paradox: lower cost per token doesn't kill total hardware spend, it drastically expands the addressable market for deployment.
| Ticker | Primary Driver | Short-Term Impact | Medium / Long-Term Impact |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| \*\*META\*\* | Open-source strategy validation + lower inference overhead across billions of app users | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 High Margin Expansion |
| \*\*AMZN\*\* | Slashed deployment costs drive massive customer volume growth on AWS | 🟢 Positive | 🟢 Strong Cloud Growth |
| \*\*MU\*\* | Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures remain bottlenecked by HBM & high-speed memory | 🟢 Positive | 🟢 High Structural Demand |
| \*\*AMD\*\* | High-memory bandwidth GPUs become very attractive for budget-conscious inference nodes | 🟡 Volatile | 🟢 Market Share Gains |
| \*\*NVDA\*\* | Potential CapEx slowdown fears vs exploding long-term global inference volume | 🔴 CapEx Uncertainty | 🟢 Volume Re-Expansion |
| \*\*SNDK\*\* | Dataset caching and local enterprise model storage requirements | ⚪ Neutral | 🟢 Mild Positive |
| \*\*NBIS\*\* | Lower unit compute pricing compresses margins unless utilization scales rapidly | 🔴 Pricing Pressure | 🟡 High Volatility / Opportunity |
| \*\*INTC\*\* | Slower hardware adoption relative to ARM/Nvidia server architecture | ⚪ Neutral | 🔴 Structural Lag |
\*\*TL;DR:\*\* The market will likely freak out short-term over potential GPU CapEx cuts (hit to NVDA), but long-term, ultra-cheap inference accelerates enterprise adoption and hugely benefits Hyperscalers (META, AMZN) and Memory (MU).

1. Fair but a lot of stuff can be o rained outside of Apple Store without any major issues. Even on iPad you can find ways to side load some shit. Regular consumer don't care tho and that's why it's happening - 99,9% of users download the same 30apps no matter the OS so a walled garden play in their favour because apps are way way more stable because everything is tailored for set OS and hardware.
2. Is it a really a reason to hate a company? Innovation happens behind closed doors and not always most innovative idea is the best one. There is so much stuff that came and go over the years and from business stand point it's way smarter to improve existing concepts than just blindly innovate. And I would argue their implementation of ARM was a huge innovation and super beneficial for all customers no matter the OS. And again as an old head i can't find any innovation on PC or Android side of things that I can't live without atm. Are foldable a fun? Yes for first 3months and after that novelty disappears.
3. Apple just don't have these Uber budget editions but if you want buy premium PC or a phone their competitors are equally expensive. The upgrades are too expensive and I think that's the think requires hate

Last week I commented in the last earnings thread. Who wants my two cents for this week? 
LAST WEEK: Look at CVLT. They ran up insanly this year. Old legacy tech, but they actually are profitable and there are rumors about a takeover. The sympathy play is my darling RBRK, which has 80% margins and is growing like a mofo. Calls on RBRK. Next up F. They will talk about building batteies, we might see 15.5$ - 16$ on that news alone. BA will be flat. I wanted to buy GLW in the 30ies where it stayed for years, now it's at 140$ with ATH at 220 couple weeks back. Puts. CLS calls. CHIPS CHIPS CHIPS. UPS announces lay-offs. Bullish. APLD calls, we still in the AI buildout, they are 50% off from market highs. ENPH puts. MSFT puts might be ruckd by IV crush. STX calls, but also IV crush. V calls because they will talk about AI and Agent transactions using their shitcoins just like MA. QCOM calls because a folding Robot is good publicity. ARM calls because chips. THEREFORE AVGO FREAKING BIG CALLS. VRT calls because energy. BE calls because energy. FTNT puts, but ZS calls. AAPL puts because we are in risk-on mode - FOMC will be cool - and those guys are risk-off we don't do ANY risk with ANYTHING boring. Calls on AVGO GOOG RBRK ZS and my darling NOW. 
Edit: CVLT I was wring it dumped. RBRK flat. CLS opened flat after being up 8% in AH but recovered end if week, I was right. GLW tanked I was right but it recovered almost 90$ eow. APDL tanked but ended flat eow. I was wrong. ENPH was flat, I was wrong. Didn't recommend puts on MSFT, I was right. STX dumped, but ended flat eow, I was wrong. V and MA I was right. Holy shit was I wrong about QCOM. I was wrong about ARM, it dumped. Wrong about VRT as well. BE calls I was right. FTNT and ZS I was right.AAPL I was right.Calls on GOOG and NOW printed I am proud if my F calls. Literally hit my 16$ target. 

So new deepseek is at opus 4.8 level at \~20x lower cost...
Here's what it means according to AI.
it will trigger Jevons' Paradox: lower cost per token doesn't kill total hardware spend, it drastically expands the addressable market for deployment.
| Ticker | Primary Driver | Short-Term Impact | Medium / Long-Term Impact |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| \*\*META\*\* | Open-source strategy validation + lower inference overhead across billions of app users | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 High Margin Expansion |
| \*\*AMZN\*\* | Slashed deployment costs drive massive customer volume growth on AWS | 🟢 Positive | 🟢 Strong Cloud Growth |
| \*\*MU\*\* | Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures remain bottlenecked by HBM & high-speed memory | 🟢 Positive | 🟢 High Structural Demand |
| \*\*AMD\*\* | High-memory bandwidth GPUs become very attractive for budget-conscious inference nodes | 🟡 Volatile | 🟢 Market Share Gains |
| \*\*NVDA\*\* | Potential CapEx slowdown fears vs exploding long-term global inference volume | 🔴 CapEx Uncertainty | 🟢 Volume Re-Expansion |
| \*\*SNDK\*\* | Dataset caching and local enterprise model storage requirements | ⚪ Neutral | 🟢 Mild Positive |
| \*\*NBIS\*\* | Lower unit compute pricing compresses margins unless utilization scales rapidly | 🔴 Pricing Pressure | 🟡 High Volatility / Opportunity |
| \*\*INTC\*\* | Slower hardware adoption relative to ARM/Nvidia server architecture | ⚪ Neutral | 🔴 Structural Lag |
\*\*TL;DR:\*\* The market will likely freak out short-term over potential GPU CapEx cuts (hit to NVDA), but long-term, ultra-cheap inference accelerates enterprise adoption and hugely benefits Hyperscalers (META, AMZN) and Memory (MU).

ARM reaching $450 was the signal that semis top is in.

Robotics - OUST, TSLA, ARM potentially good

Damn people were signing ARM's when rates were under 4%? I got a 2.625% in '21 with no points. It hurt so much selling that house when we moved 2 years ago.

The people with ARM from pandemic are about to get cooked

This week was one more where don't panic on Wednesday paid off. Made slightly under 1% premium thanks to SLV and RKLB but got close. Last Week's post: https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/1v5g2z1/1_weekly_returns_from_options_week_21/

**First, the strategy:**
\- Use a screener to give me a list of top 20 low delta options for next week
\- I either
\- a. Roll my current options - I do this if I can still get 1% for rolling or if the option is ATM/ITM and I have to roll. I always roll for credit.
\- b. Close a current option and pick something else from the list that I like
\- I try to do this every Friday. However, if I'm busy on Fridays, I'll sometimes do this on Thursdays.
**Screener Output Earlier Today**
### Top 20 Lowest-Risk Put Options (Expiring August 7, 2026)
| Stock Symbol | Stock Price | Strike Price | Premium (Bid) | Distance OTM % | Return % | Delta | Expiration |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **AAOI** | $97.73 | $65.00 | $0.65 | 33.49% | 1.00% | -0.0576 | 2026-08-07 |
| **SNDK** | $1,391.52 | $940.00 | $9.40 | 32.45% | 1.00% | -0.0576 | 2026-08-07 |
| **ALAB** | $329.51 | $240.00 | $2.40 | 27.16% | 1.00% | -0.0780 | 2026-08-07 |
| **NBIS** | $201.25 | $150.00 | $1.56 | 25.47% | 1.04% | -0.0784 | 2026-08-07 |
| **SPCX** | $112.49 | $87.00 | $0.95 | 22.66% | 1.09% | -0.0866 | 2026-08-07 |
| **SKHY** | $161.84 | $125.00 | $1.35 | 22.76% | 1.08% | -0.0867 | 2026-08-07 |
| **IREN** | $39.43 | $30.00 | $0.32 | 23.92% | 1.07% | -0.0881 | 2026-08-07 |
| **WDC** | $578.88 | $452.50 | $4.80 | 21.83% | 1.06% | -0.0921 | 2026-08-07 |
| **BE** | $218.64 | $170.00 | $2.26 | 22.25% | 1.33% | -0.1022 | 2026-08-07 |
| **APP** | $389.87 | $317.50 | $3.20 | 18.56% | 1.01% | -0.1075 | 2026-08-07 |
| **MU** | $925.50 | $770.00 | $8.30 | 16.80% | 1.08% | -0.1125 | 2026-08-07 |
| **HUT** | $114.34 | $92.00 | $1.01 | 19.54% | 1.10% | -0.1147 | 2026-08-07 |
| **PLTR** | $122.23 | $104.00 | $1.05 | 14.91% | 1.01% | -0.1162 | 2026-08-07 |
| **AXTI** | $59.39 | $45.00 | $0.60 | 24.23% | 1.33% | -0.1178 | 2026-08-07 |
| **ARM** | $259.65 | $220.00 | $2.20 | 15.27% | 1.00% | -0.1181 | 2026-08-07 |
| **CRCL** | $61.69 | $51.00 | $0.60 | 17.33% | 1.18% | -0.1188 | 2026-08-07 |
| **MRVL** | $198.92 | $167.50 | $1.80 | 15.80% | 1.07% | -0.1192 | 2026-08-07 |
| **WULF** | $18.65 | $15.00 | $0.18 | 19.57% | 1.20% | -0.1211 | 2026-08-07 |
| **CIFR** | $23.05 | $18.00 | $0.25 | 21.91% | 1.39% | -0.1226 | 2026-08-07 |
| **LITE** | $766.76 | $637.50 | $6.60 | 16.86% | 1.04% | -0.1245 | 2026-08-07 |
**Trades Placed Today**
| Symbol | Action | Premium Collected | Cash Occupied |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| SLV | Rolled 1x Jul 31 66 to 1x Aug 14 66 call | $6.66 | $6,550.00 |
| SKHY | Rolled 1x Jul 31 121 to 1x Aug 7 116 put | $124.52 | $11,600.00 |
| NBIS | Rolled 2x Jul 31 130 to 2x Aug 7 136 put | $273.03 | $27,200.00 |
| IREN | Rolled 1x Jul 31 35 to 1x Aug 7 30.5 put | $30.52 | $3,050.00 |
| DRAM | Rolled 2x Jul 31 44 to 2x Aug 7 43 put | $93.05 | $8,600.00 |
| APLD | Rolled 3x Jul 31 29.5 to 3x Aug 7 28.5 put | $90.16 | $8,550.00 |
| RKLB | Rolled 3x Jul 31 73 to 3x Aug 7 73 put | $246.12 | $21,900.00 |
| ASTS | Rolled 2x Jul 31 62 to 2x Aug 7 60 put | $88.10 | $12,000.00 |
| AAOI | Rolled 1x Jul 31 79 to 1x Aug 7 62 put | $69.52 | $6,200.00 |
| **TOTAL** | **All Executed Trades** | **$1,021.68** | **$105,650.00** |
**Returns**
Total Premium: $19,148.00
Current drawdown: -$5,385.00
Gain/Loss from Assignment: -$1,351.00
Total gains: $13,763.00
Annualized (Calc1 using average invested): 37.38%
Annualized (Calc2 using max invested): 25.49%

I learned that the reason ARM is so overvalued is the public tradeable float is like only 12% of all shares. SoftBank holds all the shares.
Anytime there is even a little bullish sentiment, supply is constrained and the price will be high to get shares.

**BanBet Lost** — /u/Such-Ice1325 (0W - 2L, 0%)
| Ticker | Entry → Target | Move | Time | Result |
|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|:---:|
| **ARM** ▼ | $228.44 → $137.06 | -40.0% | 2d | Lost |

How does ARM not print money when almost everything is based on their designs now...

Another feast of a day for me. Sold my assigned AMD shares at 513, sold the 480s expiring today.
Also ARM 240 and RDDT 140