ARM
Arm Holdings plc
stockNASDAQADR

"Robust licensing growth today enables future royalty growth" Is ARM following Blackberry's QNX for licensing growth? And ARM is expecting their market value in Physical AI (Automotive & Robotics) to grow from 26B in 2026 to 60B by 2031. So will QNX Royalty growth follows ARM to double by 2031?

ARM will go back to 250+ by EOY

I gotta feeling MM gonna keep popular retail AI stocks pinned lower like NBIS ALAB BE ARM COHR IREN CRWV etc and software names like NET SHOP PANW CRWD SNOW are gonna soar past ATH soon just to fuck with retail

Do they know something everyone else doesn't? I assume they are relying on SpaceX to deliver compute power but with the recent political swing the data centres they were hoping to construct are now being denied the land on which to build. "Some of Google's other disclosed positions include: \- $CME (CME Group): 1.36% \- $RVMD (Revolution Medicines): 0.65% \- $QCOM (Qualcomm): 0.63% \- $PL (Planet Labs): 0.56% \- $ARM (Arm Holdings): 0.44% \- $ASTS (AST SpaceMobile): 0.37% \- $FRSH (Freshworks): 0.22% \- $PBLS (Pabilis): 0.18% \- $TEM (Tempus AI): 0.15%" source: [https://x.com/milkroadai/status/2119143856201707858](https://x.com/milkroadai/status/2119143856201707858)

This is me with STX at 820 and ARM at 300

idk how ARM has fallen this far.

When we look at how the market prices AI, it is clearer to look at non-hyperscaler (GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, big names) stocks because these hyperscalers have a more stable alternative source of income. Four-week category performance, from October 9 to November 6, 2026: Hardware: -34.17% NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, AMD, ASML, INTC, CSCO, AMAT, LRCX, DELL, ARM, ANET, KLAC, MRVL, SNDK, QCOM, STX, WDC, LITE, HPE, CIEN, COHR, ALAB, CLS, CRDO, SMCI, FN Computing & facilities: -29.91% EQIX, DLR, NBIS, CRWV, IREN, APLD, WULF, CIFR Electricity: -22.71% GEV, ETN, CEG, VRT, BE, VST, CCJ, TLN, OKLO Main street stable: +11.96% KO, MCD, WMT, CL, BRK-B and at equal weighting of each stock within each category, we get |Sector / index|Four-week performance|Adjusted earnings yield|Equivalent P/E| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Hardware|\-34.17%|4.05%|24.7×| |Computing & facilities|\-29.91%|\-9.18%|Net loss| |Electricity|\-22.71%|2.03%|49.3×| |**Main street stable**|**+11.96%**|**3.83%**|**26.1×**| let's guess the reason behind the differences. First, we have the hardware stocks on similar earnings yield to main street stable. This means the market expects their profits to stay stable. which means this level of chip buying to continue. Then we have the computing & facilities companies who buys hardware and data center assets and leases them out. Note these are not hyperscalers: these are medium-small players with limited cash. The market gives them a negative earnings yield, which is really a sign of confidence in those stocks turning a healthy profit. Now we know historically the market doesn't buy into a stock/industry that will do well more than 5 years into the future, the market buys into a stock that's gonna do well around 1-3 years into the future. So that's the market speaking here. Now electricity: this is interesting because the numbers mean ai is gonna lead a significant expansion in electricity generating capacity. the adjusted earnings yield is almost the half of main street stable index and compared to the other two ai segments it didnt fall as much. Interestingly the us added in years 24-25 14GW wind and 7.8GW natural gas. To meet the 457 TWh/year ai energy gap (I got this number somewhere. you should check) by the end of 2030, natural-gas capacity additions would need to average approximately 15.0 GW per year from 2026 through 2030, assuming wind expansion stays the same. In this scenario, total US gas and wind equipment market would be approximately $10.4 billion–$19.5 billion per year. For reference GE vernova annualised q3 2026 revenue is $50.4b. In general, I think the market is saying that we gonna have this level of hardware spending and data center expansion but for many years at least 3 years (personally I think it is unlikely we will see a massive electricity capacity expansion fully ramp up within 2 years judging by the speed of us regulations. If the democrats bring the green new deal kind of infrastructure enthusiasm back it could help. Government help is good but not completely necessary. Hyperscalers and private debt can fund electricity expansion too but just more expensively at current rates.) Last but not least, KO, MCD, WMT, CL, BRK-B don't have that much uncertainty about their future.

Qcom also failed to break into the laptop market and even if ARM succeeds there eventually, the gates are now open for others (Nvidia+mediatek,etc). Qcom has also lost its edge in being far ahead of the other ARM socs for Android devices. Long term I wouldn't be surprised if they end up like Intel, but at least Intel has fabs..

Hi, Wanted to check how everybody's portfolio behaved on this week "stress test". Mine went down intraday 1.6% and ended up -0.9% on Thursday compared with -4.4% for SPY Week ended with small gain 0.57% Pretty uneventful, overall. SPY is down only 2.2% I closed some juicy calls (ARM, NBIS) and butchered otherwise great week with ABNB 190 Dec call

Update after today's recovery: |Symbol|Company Name|Last Price|Change (%)|Prev Close|Market Cap|52-Wk High Chg %| |:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| |[TXN](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXN/)|Texas Instruments Incorporated|278.46|\+0.11%|278.15|253.576B|\-16.97%| |[ADI](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADI/)|Analog Devices, Inc.|363.56|\+0.83%|361.01|176.169B|\-18.47%| |[TSM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSM/)|Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited|375.68|\+6.39%|353.10|1.946T|\-23.03%| |[NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/)|NVIDIA Corporation|187.32|\+3.15%|181.60|4.507T|\-23.31%| |[SMH](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMH/)|VanEck Semiconductor ETF|465.00|\+3.86%|447.73|\--|\-30.94%| |[AMD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/)|Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.|449.15|\+11.06%|404.40|736.465B|\-31.81%| |[QCOM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCOM/)|QUALCOMM Incorporated|165.00|\+5.26%|156.75|176.989B|\-36.36%| |[SOXX](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOXX/)|iShares Semiconductor ETF|136.79|\+3.71%|131.90|\--|\-37.56%| |[AVGO](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVGO/)|Broadcom Inc.|295.04|\+1.20%|291.53|1.402T|\-40.67%| |[MCHP](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MCHP/)|Microchip Technology Incorporated|58.35|\-10.02%|64.85|31.685B|\-44.91%| |[MU](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MU/)|Micron Technology, Inc.|694.84|\+5.86%|656.39|780.682B|\-45.02%| |[ON](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ON/)|ON Semiconductor Corporation|63.31|\+0.49%|63.01|24.646B|\-53.08%| |[KLAC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KLAC/)|KLA Corporation|139.44|\+7.43%|129.80|180.447B|\-54.94%| |[AMAT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMAT/)|Applied Materials, Inc.|334.38|\+4.74%|319.25|264.042B|\-55.02%| |[MRVL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRVL/)|Marvell Technology, Inc.|141.98|\+6.31%|133.55|127.047B|\-57.20%| |[INTC](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/INTC/)|Intel Corporation|56.54|\+8.21%|52.25|299.128B|\-60.46%| |[ARM](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARM/)|Arm Holdings plc|175.29|\+5.14%|166.72|186.843B|\-61.43%|

Sold AMD 420 yesterday, ARM 165. Was willing to take assignment on those, but I'm probably not getting them. Bought ARM shares, though.

Sold AMD 420 yesterday, ARM 165. Was willing to take assignment on those, but I'm probably not getting them. DDOG 180s likely expiring worthless as well Bought ARM shares, though.

They can only raise 2 billion from float in their holdings on ARM from before yesterday's drop. They spend that much yearly servicing debt on bad loans.

SoftBank is fucking defaulting? I knew they made some bad calls but damn, I thought their play with ARM would have saved them

I'd say some people care, these numbers get thrown around a lot right now. That's kind of why I flipped it. And your capex point is basically what the table shows. MU and SNDK are already priced for almost no growth, so the market expects that drop for memory. ARM, AMD and MRVL are priced as if the spending keeps going for years.

Pretty much my point. For MU the price only needs \~2.6% a year, so roughly today's cash flow holding flat. If you expect memory earnings to crash once competitors catch up, then MU isn't cheap at 4x. The P/E just looks low because earnings are at the peak. The other end of the table is the opposite case though. ARM, AMD and MRVL are priced for 30 to 40% FCF growth a year for 10 years. The market isn't assuming steady earnings there, it's assuming the rocket keeps going. (Small detail: the model is 10 years of growth, then flat forever, not 15.)

I suspect BlueOwl has had its holdings stripped and will be announced dead soon, but they’re a lower shitco loan company with only ARM stake and high corp debt holdings.

Been margin called on my ARM shares. How the fuck you all do this?!