ARM
Arm Holdings plc
stockNASDAQADR

also just as a note. Most of the competition between vera and turin/venice is going to be decided by If the buyer wants an X86 CPU or an ARM CPU . . . that will determine \~75% of buyers choices.

Just did a deep dive into the Vera CPU - it's not looking good for nvda. The Vera "spacial multithreading" is showing performance regressions in certain taskloads - i.e. using 2 threads is slower than 1 per core which is hilarious. [https://chipsandcheese.com/p/nvidias-olympus-core-pushing-server](https://chipsandcheese.com/p/nvidias-olympus-core-pushing-server) Also, the upcoming EPYC 9006 CPUs have 1.6TB/s bandwidth while Vera has 1.2TB/s, NVDA released ia whitepaper earlier this year against the previous generation EPYC. They compared a 1.2TB/s chip to a 0.6TB/s, and also fudged the graphs, which was later called out to be a blatant misrepresentation by Chips and Cheese. You can see it looks like one of the graphs was edited with MSPAINT. [https://chipsandcheese.com/p/nvidias-vera-whitepaper-has-a-thread](https://chipsandcheese.com/p/nvidias-vera-whitepaper-has-a-thread) [https://i0.wp.com/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f\_auto%2Cq\_auto%3Agood%2Cfl\_progressive%3Asteep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5340197-b348-4754-8796-68593252063a\_500x296.png?ssl=1](https://i0.wp.com/substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd5340197-b348-4754-8796-68593252063a_500x296.png?ssl=1) [https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s\_!\_qO7!,f\_auto,q\_auto:good,fl\_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ed1f113-ce95-4463-9f6d-a6e435ddb6e4\_2006x1299.png](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_qO7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7ed1f113-ce95-4463-9f6d-a6e435ddb6e4_2006x1299.png) With Vera Rubin - Nvda is forcing you to use their specific core configuration (88 ARM cores), with MI400x, you can choose the right CPU for your workloads/agentic tasks. Once the next GPU upgrade comes, you could take out just the x86 CPU and put it in a new tray - maybe even have an AMD CPU with an NVDA GPU. These ARM cores are literally a liability for datacenters.

If you think tesla is an homage to the efficient market theory I can only call BS. Its revenues have been flat for 4 years, its incomes have been declining for 4 years, and its PE is still 300+. All because some guy thinks that he can do robot cars and robot workers better than companies specialized in doing just that. Allllllllll sorts of companies come and go in hype/valuation, and its not the efficient market at work. Peloton is a memorable example. hertz (HTZ) the car rental company, if the efficient market theory had been correct, as soon as they bought a whole pile of Teslas for their rental fleet they should have been at their current price. Because it was obvious that a rental car company depends upon selling their fleet after 3 years and booking some value upon it. CAVA was priced at 12 times revenue.... a company that by its nature will never have massive profit margins, because by the company's nature it has to spend a fair amount of money on leases, staff, and inventory in a competitive marketplace. Efficient Market Theory my ass. I get that a lot of people have gained a lot of wealth from the AI boom. Good for them. If you ask me, I just fundamentally do not understand the majority of those companies. What makes NVDA's widgets better than AMD's? What about ARM vs CPU? How about GOOG and AAPL and AMZN starting to build their own widgets? I do not fundamentally understand those businesses like I understand many others, so I will just stick to what I know. They do just fine.

**NXP and QNX partnership now coming to Fruition as QNX and NVIDIA partnership is bearing fruits with Nvidia AGX THOR and Nvidia IGX THOR. Now Blackberry share holders are waiting to understand where QNX is going to take with AMD, ARM and Intel partnership.** **It is long road that Blackberry shareholders waited but time is on horizon and unfolding where QNX is going to take Blackberry?** # Powering Next-Generation Applications **Industrial Automation:** Real-time defect detection, machine vision, and multi-modal inspection. **Intelligent Security:** Multi-stream video analytics, people/vehicle detection, and perimeter monitoring. **Robotics:** On-device perception, object detection, and autonomous navigation. **Smart Transportation:** Traffic monitoring and real-time video analytics. [https://timestech.in/nxp-forlinx-empowering-industrial-edge-ai-with-i-mx-95-and-ara240-m-2-ai-accelerator/?shem=aimgspe](https://timestech.in/nxp-forlinx-empowering-industrial-edge-ai-with-i-mx-95-and-ara240-m-2-ai-accelerator/?shem=aimgspe), # NXP Breaks Through Integration Barriers for Software-Defined Vehicle Development with Open S32 CoreRide Platform *Grant Courville, VP of product and strategy at* [*BlackBerry QNX*](https://blackberry.qnx.com/en) “As the automotive industry moves towards fully software-defined vehicles, the importance of close collaboration between software and silicon vendors becomes even more critical. **We are excited to deepen our partnership with NXP and the open S32 CoreRide platform to address this evolution and deliver integrated hardware and software solutions that meet the current and future needs of the industry.”** [https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-NXP-BREAKS-THROUGH-AB](https://www.nxp.com/company/about-nxp/newsroom/NW-NXP-BREAKS-THROUGH-AB)

QCOM ARM trail outcome should be out next week. Place your bet .

I'm long ARM, they just have so many tailwinds right now. I think the biggest risk for this stock near term is its valuation. It could fall -50% just because the market doesn't want to pay so much, or if SoftBank becomes a forced seller. I'd consider both cases just opportunities to add. For upside over the next few years, it's all about AI. Let's see how many data center chips they can sell.

Yes agree that semi have always run in cycles. Let me add that I also went thru the dot com bust so I’m probably much older than most ppl here on Reddit who have not experienced that bust. Few things. First on NVDA only. As we know its PEG is low this year and probably next year. But as soon as the “E” goes down, the PE and PEG will obviously increase. I am not someone who says “NVDA to $300 by year end or $400 next year” like many analysts. I said I’m hoping 15% a year steady appreciation. But NVDA’s PE and PEG is much lower than Intel or AMD or any other semi other than memory so relatively speaking, NVDA is much cheaper than most other semi. We also know memory goes thru boom and bust as well which I’ll briefly touch. NVDA does not exist on an island (though they seem to be the nucleus of this AI theme). When this AI cycle slows down, or maybe crash, everything will crash. It is not like NVDA will crash 50% but Intel and AMD (or ARM/QCOM/AVGO) won’t crash or continue to go up. The whole AI trade will be hit hard include all the bottlenecks. NVDA may crash less than other semi because their valuation is much less than others. Regarding memory, say MU is trading at 6X next year. Many analysts say this time is different because HBM is different from storage so it’s not cyclical but a structural shift to AI. I personally think it’s still a cycle just that this cycle is stronger and longer than previously cycles. So today I am still all in on the AI trade, including NBIS, AVGO, ALAB, AMD, ARM, QCOM, MU, LITE, COHR. AAOI, MRVL, CRDO… but I think we got 1-2 more years to go before any sign of a slow down…or a crash… I mean right now all the hyperscalers say they will increase capex 2027 but 2028 is a question mark. Btw I don’t think this crash will be limited to semi (hardware). I think hyperscalers will also get hurt a lot. At some point the return on all that investment will slow down. They will continue to make a lot of money but the rate of return will slow that’s when they slow the capex… leading to the slowdown or the crash of the picks and shovels. Just my 2 cents. I hope I’m wrong and the party goes on…. But party always ends…just make sure you’re not the last person out the door.

Margin can be great. Like a home loan, it’s much less about how much leverage you CAN you, and more about how much is sensible. And that percent changes over time. In the early days I could deploy 20% margin after a dip. Now, 20% would be such a large NOMINAL value relative to salary, that it very well might take 2 years+ to pay down if you don’t sell. Also, the rate can float, so it’s closer to an ARM. And, you can also get cheaper leverage via LETFs

If you’re game for a real 24/7 EA you might want to ditch the zero‑cost trap. The $5/month DigitalOcean droplet gives you a permanent static IP, no idle reclamation, and decent latency for a grid strategy. If your broker will free you a VPS for hitting a $10k balance, that’s even cheaper. The only free reliable tier out there is Oracle’s always‑free ARM box, but it will kill an idle instance after a couple of hours unless you keep the EA tickling it.

Because I see ARM as way more off the highs and more likely for a rebound, compared to AMD which is still near the bubbly heights of the recent run. Earnings are next month, and one thing you will notice is that stocks that have gone up a lot between earnings tend to fall a bit right before the next earnings (taking profits) while those that have declined pick up a little heading into the next earnings (trying to find a discount). This just seems like the normal psychology.

I'd also add that ARM is facing both and FTC and EU are investigating Arm Holdings for potential illegal monopolization and anticompetitive licensing practices in the semiconductor market. ARM was also in court this week defending itself in a pretty high stakes, and potentially very costly, case with Qualcomm. Up to you- but I am staying away from this one. I'd say it's vastly over inflated price currently

I've gotten more active capturing gains as I got older.... The math probably doesn't work out in the long run or whatever, but there is always psychological benefits along with the tangible ones. (Kind of like how paying mortgage early usually never makes sense mathematically, but it does psychologically). General guidelines for myself: \- Never sell if it's an individual stock that's a big winner. Those I will typically let ride and ride, never sold any (such as day one IPO picks of RDDT and ARM). Those will ride until I really am tapped out on retirement and I'm old af or something. \- Sell if I can see a DOLLAR AMOUNT that I want to capture. When I see $10,000 sitting there ready to "capture" with 100% long term capital gains tax on it. I'll just snag it and be done with it. This is always done with long held fund tickers (VOO, VTI, VTSAX, etc). There is something about having a big pay bonus in tens of thousands of dollars I am ready to consider my own. Typically this gets immediate re-balanced into the portfolio, other investments/savings, but there is something about that payday that really makes me happy. Probably terrible mathematically. Will say this outright. If I were in a risky spot financially maybe I would be a little more calculated.

MU. ARM. TSMC. AMPX.

Seeing a lot of people in financial subs with ARM mortgages going up. I feel like I've seen this one before..

Made the choice to eat the loss on the AMD 610s, but take assignment on the ARM 267.5s

ARM Holdings

Until ARM, Intel or somebody else comes up with a novel and superior solution (Nvidia’s is just motivated to defend there potion, not shake the boat) or delivers 75% of the performance at 25% of the price compared to Nvidia’s latest offering.