ARM
Arm Holdings plc
stock NASDAQ ADR

I mean, Apple has been doing the RISC thing for human generations. ARM is superior for a lot of PC tasks and it's available for Windows. Microsoft didn't have the same innovation over the past 5-10 years though they could have pretty much copied the play book. So it is Microsoft's fault through omission/inaction.

Speaking for the other side of this. I was able to do a loan conversion on my mortgage during COVID from a 30 year ARM (starting at 3.5%, capping at 7.5%) to a 15 year fixed at 2.65%. I've been told I fucked up by taking the 15 year instead of the 30 year (and investing the difference) but the new payment is WELL within my means and I have had a rough history of layoffs in my career. The idea that I could have my mortgage paid of by age 50 is incredibly valuable to me knowing one of my most basic needs will be paid off nearly two decades before I retire.

Was going through my watchlists: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -17% since October 28th, and ARM -26% in the same time frame. Neither seems particularly exposed to AI (if anything it could be a tailwind), but I suppose the P/E ratios remaining >100 after these drops means this is just a multiple compression?
Of course this has prompted me to check up on PLTR, which still has a P/E of 362. While a different company, it seems clear some investors don't care about actual financial metrics. (I wish I hadn't sold at $40, would've been my all time greatest holding, but oh well.)

I have been transitioning from tech into a portfolio more geared towards income currently @ about 95k in qualified dividends hoping to triple that in 8 years as i put a foot one out the door.
ADP AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC COM
AFL AFLAC INC COM
AMGN AMGEN INC
AOS SMITH A O CORP COM
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO COM USD0.20
BLK BLACKROCK INC COM
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC
BX BLACKSTONE INC
CAT CATERPILLAR INC COM
CB CHUBB LIMITED COM NPV ISIN #CH0044328745
CME CME GROUP INC COM
CMI CUMMINS INC
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COM
HD HOME DEPOT INC
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE &CO. COM
KKR KKR &CO INC COM
LIN LINDE PLC COM EUR0.001
LOW LOWES COMPANIES INC COM USD0.50
ORI OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP
OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORP COM
PAG PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC
PH PARKER-HANNIFIN CORP COM
SCHD SCHWAB US DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF
SCHG SCHWAB US LARGE-CAP GROWTH ETF
SNA SNAP-ON INC
TXRH TEXAS ROADHOUSE INC
V VISA INC
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT INC

ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC SPON ADS EACH REP 1 ORD SHS
BRKB BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC COM USD0.0033 CLASS B
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION COM
CMC COMMERCIAL METALS CO
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A COMMON STOCK
PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP COM
RDDT Reddit

A few risk mitigants -> 1) all hyperscalers are already AMD customers in EPYC and in discussions for MI450. It doesn’t matter who wins the race, as long as all of them need to compete with each other. 2) OPENAI has strong backers like Softbank, MSFT, NVDA, that all cant let it fail. That’s why SoftBank has sold its Nvda stake and even increased its ARM margin loan to support this. 3) META is AMD’s real big customer as seen from the Helios rack being designed based on META standards. Any supply OPENAI cant fulfill will be taken up by meta and other competitors. 4) Trump is too invested in America’s leading AI position as seen from all these global meetings, it’s hard to see him let them fail

EPYC isnt safe as well when I used to work there the main draw of EPYC is the integration into the rack scale solution when ARM is head on the heals of X86. ARM isnt uncompetitive just that there isnt yet a good enough implementation of EPYC like ARM solution yet know this from internal testing.

You obviously have not been paying attention to the details of NVIDIA's technology
NVIDIA licenses ARM for all its SoCs. This is not like the Altera acquisition because NVIDIA is already using and dependent on ARMs IP. ARM CPUs are used in virtually all cell phones and mobile devices. Acquiring ARM would've enabled NVIDIA to easily enter that market and would've greatly decreased NVIDIAs SoC risk due to their dependence on ARM. It would also have enabled NVIDIA to compete with AMD and Intel in the CPU market.

I know enough people in the industry to be confident that TPUs are cheaper for inference, there's just no question on that one. You're right on EPYC, but that's why I wrote that CPUs are safe in the post due to complexity + already low margins (though ARM deployments in data centers are lower TCO due to perf/watt, so x86 share is actually dwindling).

ARM

I mean, Apple has been doing the RISC thing for human generations. ARM is superior for a lot of PC tasks and it's available for Windows. Microsoft didn't have the same innovation over the past 5-10 years though they could have pretty much copied the play book. So it is Microsoft's fault through omission/inaction.

Speaking for the other side of this. I was able to do a loan conversion on my mortgage during COVID from a 30 year ARM (starting at 3.5%, capping at 7.5%) to a 15 year fixed at 2.65%. I've been told I fucked up by taking the 15 year instead of the 30 year (and investing the difference) but the new payment is WELL within my means and I have had a rough history of layoffs in my career. The idea that I could have my mortgage paid of by age 50 is incredibly valuable to me knowing one of my most basic needs will be paid off nearly two decades before I retire.

Was going through my watchlists: Palo Alto Networks (PANW) -17% since October 28th, and ARM -26% in the same time frame. Neither seems particularly exposed to AI (if anything it could be a tailwind), but I suppose the P/E ratios remaining >100 after these drops means this is just a multiple compression?
Of course this has prompted me to check up on PLTR, which still has a P/E of 362. While a different company, it seems clear some investors don't care about actual financial metrics. (I wish I hadn't sold at $40, would've been my all time greatest holding, but oh well.)

I have been transitioning from tech into a portfolio more geared towards income currently @ about 95k in qualified dividends hoping to triple that in 8 years as i put a foot one out the door.
ADP AUTOMATIC DATA PROCESSING INC COM
AFL AFLAC INC COM
AMGN AMGEN INC
AOS SMITH A O CORP COM
AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO COM USD0.20
BLK BLACKROCK INC COM
BRO BROWN & BROWN INC
BX BLACKSTONE INC
CAT CATERPILLAR INC COM
CB CHUBB LIMITED COM NPV ISIN #CH0044328745
CME CME GROUP INC COM
CMI CUMMINS INC
COST COSTCO WHOLESALE CORP COM
HD HOME DEPOT INC
JPM JPMORGAN CHASE &CO. COM
KKR KKR &CO INC COM
LIN LINDE PLC COM EUR0.001
LOW LOWES COMPANIES INC COM USD0.50
ORI OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP
OTIS OTIS WORLDWIDE CORP COM
PAG PENSKE AUTOMOTIVE GROUP INC
PH PARKER-HANNIFIN CORP COM
SCHD SCHWAB US DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF
SCHG SCHWAB US LARGE-CAP GROWTH ETF
SNA SNAP-ON INC
TXRH TEXAS ROADHOUSE INC
V VISA INC
WM WASTE MANAGEMENT INC

ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC SPON ADS EACH REP 1 ORD SHS
BRKB BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC COM USD0.0033 CLASS B
CARR CARRIER GLOBAL CORPORATION COM
CMC COMMERCIAL METALS CO
META META PLATFORMS INC CLASS A COMMON STOCK
PGR PROGRESSIVE CORP COM
RDDT Reddit

A few risk mitigants -> 1) all hyperscalers are already AMD customers in EPYC and in discussions for MI450. It doesn’t matter who wins the race, as long as all of them need to compete with each other. 2) OPENAI has strong backers like Softbank, MSFT, NVDA, that all cant let it fail. That’s why SoftBank has sold its Nvda stake and even increased its ARM margin loan to support this. 3) META is AMD’s real big customer as seen from the Helios rack being designed based on META standards. Any supply OPENAI cant fulfill will be taken up by meta and other competitors. 4) Trump is too invested in America’s leading AI position as seen from all these global meetings, it’s hard to see him let them fail

EPYC isnt safe as well when I used to work there the main draw of EPYC is the integration into the rack scale solution when ARM is head on the heals of X86. ARM isnt uncompetitive just that there isnt yet a good enough implementation of EPYC like ARM solution yet know this from internal testing.

You obviously have not been paying attention to the details of NVIDIA's technology
NVIDIA licenses ARM for all its SoCs. This is not like the Altera acquisition because NVIDIA is already using and dependent on ARMs IP. ARM CPUs are used in virtually all cell phones and mobile devices. Acquiring ARM would've enabled NVIDIA to easily enter that market and would've greatly decreased NVIDIAs SoC risk due to their dependence on ARM. It would also have enabled NVIDIA to compete with AMD and Intel in the CPU market.

I know enough people in the industry to be confident that TPUs are cheaper for inference, there's just no question on that one. You're right on EPYC, but that's why I wrote that CPUs are safe in the post due to complexity + already low margins (though ARM deployments in data centers are lower TCO due to perf/watt, so x86 share is actually dwindling).

ARM

it ran stops today yielding a significant profit. Now I'm contemplating whether to reverse the course and start shorting. I'm thinking about ARM (as AMD's too big for that), but fearing the ship has sailed.

This is the first good argument I've heard and haven't thought of it myself. I was in the same situation except in 2005. Got a lovely 3/1 ARM with no down payment with an interest only second to cover the no down payment part. I was 22 years old and didn't know any better. I look back and realize how massively stupid this was and doing loans like this caused the housing bubble to burst. But, it did get me in my house (it was actually cheaper than paying rent for a two bedroom apartment) and I was able to refinance the loan and am still in that same house today, nearly paid off.