AMD Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

I would say these are some good beginning thoughts in terms of AI and the architecture. I would also say to come up with a good strategy, you actually have to think deeper than the top level things which you have listed here.
I would suggest that if you are interested in investing in this semiconductor space, [the single strongest thing that you can do is make sure that you read every new article posted on semianalysis](https://semianalysis.com/). What these guys provide for free is simply amazing, and it goes a long way toward making an individual much more savvy about their investment choices in chips that will do things like support the AI industry.
For example, everything on the AMD roadmap would indicate that the watts required to generate a token is substantially higher than the Nvidia architecture. In a landscape where it looks like the major data centers are going to be power restricted, turns into a serious issue for AMD. It's not a small user using a chip at home but we're talking about large-scale customers trying to determine what their allowable power envelope is and then finding out that AMD simply does not have an architecture that fits inside of it.
About five or six months ago, semianalsisdid a nice overview of AMD's current architecture. They have a tendency to bury some of their power concerns inside of their TCO model. However, there's been other good sell-side analysts like the guys at Morgan Stanley that I pointed this out very very clearly.
But if you're reading their nice section of the AMD architecture, it does become clear as they do touch on this. More concretely, the discussion of MI355X being 1,400 W with less than 10% on‑paper speedup over the 1,000 W MI350X, and the note that real‑world TFLOPs are power‑limited, is in the “MI350X and MI355X Specs” section; this is where the article effectively frames MI355X’s efficiency (and thus power per token) as a concern.
There is a widespread concern over power usages at data centers. It's trying to fit your data center into an overall power envelope. And this will become a buying criteria for the chips. This is something that definitely Nvidia understands and looks like they have a substantial lead on.
A proof point of this is Meta trying to engage with Google on a TPU architecture. Google is a competitor to Meta, and at its very root, you would think that the two companies would not work together. However, AMD simply does not have an extremely compelling architecture. Does this mean that AMD won't scale at all? The answer is, of course, not. But it's to be clear that it will be limited in terms of the tactical timeframe.
The second thing is to realize that a chip design is useless without the ability to actually produce the chip. At the end of the day, TSMC is the only way that anybody gets out their chip. The reason that AMD has substantially outperformed Intel in the CPU market was due to the idea that they moved their production to TSMC. However, TSMC is signing up for long-term contracts. It is substantially impossible for someone to displace Nvidia out of the TSMC demand plan in any short profile unless NVDA actually drops the ball and decommits from the demand plan which they have furnished to TSMC. It doesn't even matter if somebody has the right chip, they actually have to get it produced and through the infrastructure utilizing the supplier base.
It then turns out that NV Link is a substantial moat for other people to climb into the space. While there are other strategies that the open community is trying to take, at the end of the day, NV Link is substantially ahead and provides much better GPU connectivity and manageability in the foreseeable time frame. Of course, this is always subject to competitive structures and the marketplace, but Nvidia has shown a good habit of being in front of those that that try to follow them.
So, again, we don't want to miss the point that there is competition, competition which will pass in NVDA if they drop the ball. On the other hand, we don't want to ignore that a lot of the production schedule, the dc POWER space and other items are committed over a 36-month horizon. Probably more than enough time for us to find out if AI will see continued growth, or if we see AI seriously dampen its run rate. AI is a fantastic technology, but there is a lot of chapters to be read for us to understand if it can continue to scale into the mainstream business part of the market, which is important to justify any capital investments at all.
If you want to listen to Charlie's original contention that you need to buy a quality company at a fair price, I would suggest that in the semi-conductor space, as it relates to AI, Nvidia clearly has a much stronger position than any other competitor on the market today and that idea is not based on some sort of idea that Nvidia will not have competition or an idea that they will somehow be at 100% market share.

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