ETHEUR
Ethereum / Euro
crypto Composite

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, compre , em 2029 você me diz

Not all transaction types can be frontrun. I doubt the US or Chinese governments would be using Uniswap much.
"Oh no! Greg from Delaware just sent 0.1 ETH with a priority fee to his friend before we sent our trade deal settlement to India. Now we have to wait a few seconds for the next block!"

🌍 Macro
Macro conditions continued to improve as markets priced in potential progress in U.S.–Iran diplomacy and Saudi crude exports recovered. Brent fell to a nearly two-week low, while the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, easing pressure on risk assets. U.S. equities rallied sharply, with the Nasdaq hitting a record close and semiconductors gaining 4.3%. BTC broke above $85K and briefly reached \~$87K, while ETH reclaimed $2.8K.
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📈 Market Snapshot
• BTC: $86,612.2 (+6.70%)
• ETH: $2,776.26 (+4.95%)
• NASDAQ: 27,122.09 (+2.26%)
• S&P 500: 7,764.70 (+1.49%)
• F&G: 78 (Extreme Greed)
⸻
🧠 Market Take
BTC has shifted from a 75K recovery into a stronger breakout, reclaiming its 50-week moving average and breaking above September’s prior high. The move from $82K to $85K was accelerated by short covering, with \~$648M in short liquidations out of \~$751M total crypto liquidations over 24 hours.
Altcoins are now catching up, with NEAR, AVAX and SUI gaining \~16%, 15% and 10%. However, ETF flows remain mixed: BTC spot ETFs saw only \~$6.21M in net inflows last week, while ETH ETFs recorded \~$140M in outflows.
Key levels:
* Resistance: $85K–$87K
* Support: $82K–$83K
* Trend: Bullish / breakout
A sustained breakout will require continued spot buying, while renewed ETF inflows and strength in ETH/SOL would provide stronger confirmation of a durable recovery.
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🔥 Hot Tokens
* ZETA: Briefly +70% after approval to shut down its original L1 and migrate to Solana.
* NEAR: +16% 24H, briefly above $4.30 amid Intents growth and ecosystem incentives.
* AIOZ: +56% 24H as AI/compute narratives gained momentum.
* PHA: +35% 24H, benefiting from renewed AI and privacy-computing interest.
* TAO: +21% 24H, extending the AI sector rally.
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📰 Key Updates
* Russia’s central bank proposed capping banks’ crypto-asset exposure at 1% of capital.
* Hana Bank issued a $100M digital bond through Euroclear’s blockchain platform.
* Circle launched BTC-backed lending, allowing users to borrow USDC against BTC collateral.
* ECB launched Pontes, a wholesale settlement platform for banks, with plans for direct investment in tokenized securities.
* Ondo launched a feature allowing institutions to convert stocks into tokenized shares and redeem tokens for underlying assets.
* Stablecoin infrastructure provider Agora received preliminary conditional approval to establish a federally chartered national trust bank.
* XPL faces a major unlock on September 25, equivalent to 63.2% of circulating supply and worth approximately $158M.
⸻
⚡ Quick Take
**BTC has broken into the $85K–$87K zone with broad altcoin participation**, but the rally is still partly driven by short covering rather than a full return of ETF demand. Sustained spot buying, renewed ETF inflows and continued ETH/SOL strength will be key signals for whether the breakout can extend.

Love the hype! I’m an ETH bull myself… but I don’t think ETH will ever flip BTC baring something catastrophic happening to BTC.

When are people going to understand that no amount of "institutions" or whatever companies building on ETH **does not matter** for the price, because ETH the token doesn't capture that value.
This is like arguing that Verizon should be worth many many trillions because of all the "value" that transacts through cellphones.
I would argue that the risk/reward for ETH is still very bad, because it is clearly losing market share to coins with actual revenue + buybacks.

That is what we thought during Ethereum’s cursed third cycle - yet ETH just kept bleeding against BTC. Bitcoin still trades for more than 31 ETH, compared with roughly 8–20 ETH during previous cycles. ETH has the smaller market cap and appears severely undervalued relative to BTC, so I see no fundamental reason Bitcoin should continue to run harder from here.
Ethereum’s marketing and mindshare problem still needs to be addressed. Virtually everyone has heard of Bitcoin, but people cannot buy ETH if they have never even heard of Ethereum. “Ethereum” needs to become as familiar a name as Bitcoin - or even the dollar. That is how you achieve mass adoption.
ETH also needs to appreciate faster than BTC from here. Otherwise, we are holding the wrong asset: a slower, more volatile horse. Nobody wants that combination.
ETH’s price action since the ETF launches has looked extraordinarily manipulated. Sommi posted an excellent video yesterday identifying what he considers the manipulation zone. If ETH eventually rebounds to a much stronger ratio against BTC, the abnormality of this period should become even more obvious on the long-term chart.
ETH’s price action over the past few years has looked deeply unnatural. In hindsight, it was a trader’s dream - if you had somehow recognized in advance what was about to happen.

BTC has had its day and needs to be laid to rest. Put in a mix of ETH, SOL, and ZEC.

The other thing we need to think about, is that the crypto market is *extremely* sensitive to outside events (well, and internal events too). It is volatile. This is why I say set a target price and stick to it, because one random world news headline can send prices spiraling.
For example, if nuclear radiation is detected in Ukraine, BTC and crypto will be the first market to tumble. War means uncertainty, and when things are uncertain, money flees uncertain assets first; BTC & ETH. Anything that is speculative get's hammered.
We could also see the AI bubble pop. If that happens, BTC will crash.
If MicroStrategy fumbles this massive debt load, we'll see a dramatic redistribution of BTC and 10 of 1,000's of dollars in slippage as MSTR dumps. This will almost certainly lead to Tom Lee's fund crashing as well.
If the Houthis manage to strangle the straight of Hormuz, BTC will ride that downwards.
If the CLARITY act manages to pass, but it's anti-consumer/pro-bank, again, we'll see the markets tumble.
There are countless unforeseen events that can tank the price of this asset class. And, any of them can throw off the cycle. As the cycles have matured, it's gotten a lot smoother. We may never see the crazy ATH's we've seen in past cycles, no one knows.
All this to say, tread lightly in this space, if short-term profit is what you are after. IMO, this is a long play through and through, and if I'm wrong, it goes to zero. But if I'm right, we should see 10x+, where many of us sit now.
If you don't have the conviction to ride this out, I'd suggest exiting this market and getting into something safer. But if you can stay convicted, this is a wild ride that you may end up enjoying.

It’s right when sentiment is most bullish. Everyone and their mother will say to buy. Tom Lee, Brian Armstrong, Don Jr, Bankless guys, Cobie, Arthur Hayes, etc. When they are max bullish, that’s when they’re coordinating a huge dump. When they tweet “buy!” It’s critical you understand they are selling.
The trick is to just do nothing unless you need money. Let the insiders and whales pump and dump the cycle and make their millions. We will settle in and bottom at $2,200 again and slowly climb.
ETH will be $10k before we know it. Bananas will be $6 / lb, gas $19 / gallon, but ETH will be $10k. Good luck.

>**Just a perfect day,**
>**A huge wave of shorts to sway,**
>**Just a perfect day.**
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap

If ETH is to reach at ATH I have to sell first so I can watch all the other regards make money while I cry

Well, it could happen, sure. But if the bull market is confirmed, I doubt it. The fact that it's making an ATH at this stage tells me it has a lot of to grow, just like HYPE and LIT. Besides those, I have my main bag of BTC and a little bit of ETH/SOL/PUMP
Btw, what are your bags right now, and what are you looking to buy soon? 

Literally HELOCed portion of my house into it- 1+ BTC, 10 ETH, 225 SOL at 65k, $1709 and $74 (would be 64 but sold some then fomoed back in)

I'm not buying anything here, I'm all in already, lol. If I had more dry powder I would be buying the coins I listed + BTC/ETH/SOL, but the question was about 4x, and I think these 3 have less potential. 

If we remove outside influences like war, elections, and other macroeconomic events, very generally speaking, the cycle looks like this...
It follows the BTC halving cycle, which is due in about 1.5 years. When the BTC mining reward halves, or is about to halve, these 4 market conditions immerge, and here is what follows.
* The bull market, the run-up. Price explodes past previous cycle ATH's, and price discovery will continue for a bit over a year. This will draw in *a bunch* of speculative money, leverage, and new projects, alts will go nuts. **\[This is when you sell\]**
* Then, we get a crash. Usually precipitated by some disruptive event in the market, or other macroeconomic event. The reason for the crash can be something completely unforeseeable, or obvious. We don't know. You should read about the last drawback into the 50's from the previous ATH of 125k. Either way, we usually see a 70-80% correction in the price of BTC, more for ETH, and pretty much every alt that pumped on the run-up, will be down 95%+. **\[Buy here\]**
* Here, we enter the crab cycle, the *real* bear market. We'll get sideways movement for almost 2 years while we slowly approach the next halving. This is the consolidation phase, where the asset moves sideways in a set price range, the reset phase. Price floors will be established here. **\[Or here\]**
\[**This is where we are now\]**
* Lastly, as we approach the halving, we enter a recovery and accumulation phase. What we'll see happen here, is the reclaiming of key technical, like the 50-week moving average, and the market will inch up slightly, as longs finally start to win against shorts, short leverage is flushed from the market, and speculative leverage is reset. **\[Here, we wait\]**
Right now, we are in-between the bear market and the recovery. Though, I think I'd argue we are still firmly in the bear market. Literally, just *today* did BTC reclaim the 50 week moving average. It's the first time in 45 weeks it's closed the weekly above it. Does this mean we are out of the bear market? I don't think so, but it's a good sign recovery is at least on the horizon. At the very least, it starts to confirm the halving cycle, again.
So... all this to say, if we break the cycle into 4 parts like this, we are very likely still at the bottom, in the bear market, or, just starting to tiptoe out of it. Now, is a time to wait, or buy. Now, doing so, might very likely lead to a short term loss, but it's not a loss if you don't sell.
The move now, is to wait until we actually enter the bull market, near the halving. If you don't need the money, I say wait it out. You know... and good for you, you timed the bottom. You could also try timing the top, but I wouldn't. I'd set a target price, and stick to that. You should see that price in the next two years.

| Coin | Trades | Gross deployed ($10k/trade) | PnL | Return on $10k capital |
|------|--------|-----------------------------|-----|------------------------|
| BTC | 1,393 | $13.93M | +$700 | +7.0% over 2y |
| ETH | 2,817 | $28.17M | +$300 | +3.0% over 2y |
| SOL | 3,945 | $39.45M | -$4,500 | -45.0% over 2y |

It’s extremely obvious that crypto will benefit from ai. Autonomous agents need a decentralized frictionless currency. It’s the ultimate ETH narrative

My advice: Put it in a term deposit for 6 months while you decide what to do with it. Just keep on doing research, learn more about investing and think about things. Then maybe you want to invest 100k for 6 months before you do anything more. Personally I would just put it all into the S&P500 today, but you are not me and you need to do what is right for you.
It is a long term investment, so it is worth thinking about it for a while. Keep on doing your VOO thing (I would have considered VWRA instead, but VOO is not a bad thing).
I think your S&P500 is a great thing. There is no need to go for "US Tech Stocks" as most of these are in the S&P500. You may want to end up considering going more broadly, so into the MSCI World Index. This is probably 60% S&P500 anyway. Maybe you want to consider putting money into a MP2 account.
There is more than a non-zero chance that ETH will go to zero. Same with Bitcoin. S&P500 will never ever (with 99.8% likelihood) go to zero.
You don't have to put money into everything! You don't need bonds, term deposits, crypto, US markets, Philippines markets, REITs, etc. Just being a little diversified is okay. S&P500 plus some MP2 is good. You may want to do something different in 5 or 10 years. Good luck.

It's a good option if you have cash, but doesn't work as well for existing ETH because you first sell and trigger a taxable event.

Told myself back in 2018 when I started buying ETH that I would not sell until it hits at least $10k. I’ve waited almost 10 years without selling a single coin and I’ll continue to do so even if it takes my whole life 🤣