ETHEUR
Ethereum / Euro
crypto Composite

What if they're ETH holders instead?

I’m going to give you the harsh truth those TikTok influencers won’t, but it’s the exact advice that will actually make you money instead of losing your savings.
Those videos of people making thousands a day from their phones? They make their money by selling courses to beginners and farming engagement, not by trading. The statistical reality is that 95% of day traders lose their money to algorithms and insiders. If you try to quit your 9-to-5 next month by flipping crypto, you will get wrecked.
If you actually want to change your financial future, here is the boring, proven playbook:
1. Turn off your DMs right now. Anyone messaging you on Reddit offering to "help," "guide you," or asking you to connect a wallet is a scammer. Every single one.
2. Stick to the blue chips. Open an account on Coinbase or Kraken and buy Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). Ignore the meme coins promising 100x returns, they are essentially lottery tickets where the house always wins.
3. DCA (Dollar Cost Average). Buy a set amount (even just $20 or $50 a paycheck) every single week, regardless of whether the market is up or down. This takes the emotion out of investing and prevents panic-buying.
4. Think in years, not days. Crypto moves in 4-year cycles. Buy, hold, and learn how to move your coins to a hardware wallet (like a Ledger or Trezor) for safe keeping.
Keep grinding your day job, build your stack quietly, and have patience. It is not a get-rich-quick cheat code, but if you are disciplined and hold long enough, it is one of the best wealth builders of our generation.

How much money did Trump make from the recent rise in the price of ETH?

While ~70% in BTC, 25% SOL, 5% ETH

Nice bag! Ran the 23 coins as posted. Canton is out as we only have three weeks of price history making some measures unreliable. Also the allocations in list add to 97.5%, so either a 24th line sits below the crop or there is 2.5% in cash. The numbers below are the other 22 coins at their posted weights.
The headline is that 22 coins buy you less than it looks, and more than nothing. Against your own five biggest holdings on their own (BTC, ETH, SOL, LINK, XRP, renormalised), the full basket has a better diversification ratio, 1.20 vs 1.08, because the small lines do move on their own drivers (HYPE, SKY, JTO and TAO have the lowest correlation to the rest, 0.45 to 0.57). It also has a slightly worse tail. The worst 5% of simulated years lose 59% vs 58%, the odds of a 50% drawdown are 39% vs 34%, and one path in twenty goes through 70%. BTC alone is 51% and one in five. The 17 small lines average about 90% volatility, so what they add in independence they give back in size of move.
Risk is spread almost exactly like the money (11.3 effective positions by risk, 11.4 by weight), so there is no hidden concentration anywhere. ETH is the largest risk line at 15% of risk on 15% of money, BTC the cheapest per dollar at 19% of money and 14% of risk, and the top five hold 56% of both.
Crash windows on today's weights, BTC alone for comparison:
(Historical event / window; this basket; BTC)
Oct 2025 to Jul 2026 bear; −58%; −51%
10 Oct 2025 flash crash, one day; −16%; −7%
June 2026 liquidation cascade, five days; −18%; −15%
Aug 2024 yen carry unwind; −22%; −17%
FTX week (26% of the basket did not exist yet, filled by beta); −32%; −23%

Inside the bear the spread between your lines was enormous. ENA −88%, SUI −80%, LDO −79%, AVAX −78% at one end; HYPE +29%, SKY −21%, TAO −36% at the other. On the one-day crash the small DeFi lines (JTO −34%, LDO −29%, AVAX −27%, UNI −26%) fell four times as far as BTC. If BTC drops 30% tomorrow, the last 90 days of betas put the basket at −36%, ENA −59%, XRP −44% and AAVE −41% at the sharp end, BNB −19%, HBAR −26% and LDO −28% at the soft end.
Two things that do not matter for this basket. Liquidity, because even at half a million dollars every line exits within half a day at 5% of a stressed day's volume, total slippage about 0.4% with AERO the worst at 2.8%. And macro, because an equity selloff with a dollar rally moves it under 1% on its own. One that does matter is that a standard BTC/ETH/SOL factor model explains only 28% of this basket's weekly moves. That is the flip side of the diversification. Most of the small lines run on their own news right up until a real crash, when they all fell 50 to 88% anyway.

And to end, the boring but necessary disclaimer: everything above is a model estimate under stated assumptions, not a prediction and not advice.

$999 million for comparison went into bitcoin yesterday.
Source for [BTC](https://farside.co.uk/btc/) and [ETH](https://farside.co.uk/eth/)

BTC and ETH

Ran the five coins in your screenshot (if there are more below ROSE, post them and I'll add them). At current prices that's about $1,020, LTC 70%, DOGE 10%, VET 9%, ADA 8%, ROSE 3%, and you need roughly +80% to get back to what you paid.
Bad year first. Simulated one year forward from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, the worst 5% of outcomes lose 64% or more. The same dollars in BTC alone lose 51% or more. The median path goes through a 49% drop at some point during the year, so the odds of sitting through a 50% drop in the next twelve months are about one in two. For BTC alone it is one in five. One path in ten goes through a 70% drop.
The recovery question, since that is really what you asked. In the same simulation, 18% of paths end the year at or above what you paid in May 2025. Put the same dollars into BTC and that number is 8%. The reason is the same one that makes the 50% drop likely. These five coins run at about 65% annual volatility against 44% for BTC, and volatility cuts both ways. It is what gives you a real shot at +80%, and it is what puts 13% of paths below half of today's value. If the next twelve months look like the last twelve (a resample of the real daily moves since September 2025), the picture is much worse, under 1% of paths reach breakeven and the median path loses another 54%. That is a statement about how bad the last year was for these five, not a forecast.
Which coin does the damage. LTC is 70% of the money and 69% of the risk, so there is no hidden concentration beyond the obvious one. The five move together at 0.8 to 0.9 with each other (ROSE at 0.6), and the mix has a diversification ratio of 1.08, meaning five coins take about 7% of the volatility off compared with holding one of them. If BTC drops 30% tomorrow, the last 90 days of betas say LTC drops 26%, DOGE 35%, VET 31%, ADA 44%, ROSE 29%, and the book 29%. The coins you are down most on (ADA, ROSE) are also the ones that fall hardest when BTC does.
Replays of actual crashes on today's mix. October 2025 to July 2026 costs 68%, BTC alone 51%. The 10 October 2025 flash crash costs 23% in a day, BTC 7% (the mix falls three times as far as BTC on a fast liquidation day). The June 2026 cascade costs 20%, BTC 15%. The FTX week costs only 1.6%, but that is because LTC happened to rise 11% in November 2022 while DOGE fell 47%, so treat it as luck rather than protection. The August 2024 yen unwind costs 20%, the December 2024 Fed selloff 17%.
Days to get out. At this size every one of the five sells in minutes, total slippage about $4 even at 5% of a stressed day's volume. Liquidity is not a risk you have. What the numbers above do not include is that all of it sits on one exchange, which is a separate risk from price.
One more thing the models say. A stock market selloff on its own (S&P −15%, dollar +8%, credit down) moves this book by under 1%. It only reacts to what BTC and ETH do, which matches the 0.8 to 0.9 correlations above.
And the necessary disclaimer at the end: none of this is a prediction or advice.

A lot of the focus in this channel is on short-term trading risk or the risks of one specific coin. For a HODLer's portfolio, the longer-term, structural risks, however, matter more than things like daily momentum.
Post your allocation in percent (e.g. 50% BTC, 20% ETH, 20% SOL, 10% LINK) and I'll run your portfolio through our risk engines to answer questions like:
* How much could your mix lose in a bad year, and is that better or worse than just holding BTC?
* What are the odds of sitting through a 50% drop at some point in the next twelve months?
* Which coin does most of the damage when things go wrong?
* How would your portfolio hold up in a repeat of the Oct 2025 to Jul 2026 crash, or the FTX week?
* How many days would it take to get out of each coin in a panic?
Four or more coins works best. Will reply as soon as possible.

$270 million went into ETH ETFs yesterday.

To be true there is more utility to ETH than BTC and the blockchains better too

Bro you’d gave at least another 5-6% more ETH if you didn’t use Revolut’s scam spreads..

Ran your allocation through our portfolio risk analysis at [Sentralis.io](http://Sentralis.io), with the gold line modelled as PAXG and the two 5% groups split equally.
The eleven lines behave like one asset. Simulated a year forward from current volatility and correlations with no trend assumed, the worst 5% of outcomes lose 50% or more, the median path passes through a 39% drawdown, and one in five paths passes through a 50% drawdown. Holding BTC alone gives 51%, 38% and one in five. The mix removes about 12% of the volatility you would carry in a single coin, and shifting correlations to a crisis regime adds only 0.3% to the risk, because the large coins already sit at 0.8 to 0.9 with each other in normal times.
Where the risk sits is different from where the money sits. BTC is 40% of the money and 36% of the risk, ETH is 20% and 25%, SOL is 15% and 20%. Those three carry 80% of the risk in the portfolio. The 10% in gold carries 2% of it, and swapping that gold for cash moves the one year loss figures by about one point, so at that size gold is doing what a cash position would do. The six coins in the two 5% groups carry 11% of the risk between them, about their weight, and at 1.7% each no single one of them can move the whole portfolio by more than two points even if it goes to zero or doubles.
As a check, a repeat of the October 2025 to July 2026 bear on this mix costs 52%, against 51% for BTC alone. Gold ended that window up 3%, and the lines that fell hardest were ADA, SUI, HBAR, SOL and UNI at 65% or more. All of this is a model estimate under the stated assumptions, not a prediction.

Hey there, want to get into uk quant masters programs as a international student from India, what are the odds of getting into unis (TU Delft, EUR, UvAmsterdam, ETH, U. Manchester) especially with low GPA and are they even really valued by quant firms.

ETH shouldn't even be at $2,700 if capturing L2 fees matters and is a legitimate thing determining price. Lazy analysis.

New ath more likely.
Dude, sol will have it’s ETH Moment this cycle. Two Cycles ago eth went from hundreds to thousands. Thats where we are with sol.

BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, compre , em 2029 você me diz

Not all transaction types can be frontrun. I doubt the US or Chinese governments would be using Uniswap much.
"Oh no! Greg from Delaware just sent 0.1 ETH with a priority fee to his friend before we sent our trade deal settlement to India. Now we have to wait a few seconds for the next block!"

🌍 Macro
Macro conditions continued to improve as markets priced in potential progress in U.S.–Iran diplomacy and Saudi crude exports recovered. Brent fell to a nearly two-week low, while the U.S. 10Y Treasury yield dropped back below 5%, easing pressure on risk assets. U.S. equities rallied sharply, with the Nasdaq hitting a record close and semiconductors gaining 4.3%. BTC broke above $85K and briefly reached \~$87K, while ETH reclaimed $2.8K.
⸻
📈 Market Snapshot
• BTC: $86,612.2 (+6.70%)
• ETH: $2,776.26 (+4.95%)
• NASDAQ: 27,122.09 (+2.26%)
• S&P 500: 7,764.70 (+1.49%)
• F&G: 78 (Extreme Greed)
⸻
🧠 Market Take
BTC has shifted from a 75K recovery into a stronger breakout, reclaiming its 50-week moving average and breaking above September’s prior high. The move from $82K to $85K was accelerated by short covering, with \~$648M in short liquidations out of \~$751M total crypto liquidations over 24 hours.
Altcoins are now catching up, with NEAR, AVAX and SUI gaining \~16%, 15% and 10%. However, ETF flows remain mixed: BTC spot ETFs saw only \~$6.21M in net inflows last week, while ETH ETFs recorded \~$140M in outflows.
Key levels:
* Resistance: $85K–$87K
* Support: $82K–$83K
* Trend: Bullish / breakout
A sustained breakout will require continued spot buying, while renewed ETF inflows and strength in ETH/SOL would provide stronger confirmation of a durable recovery.
⸻
🔥 Hot Tokens
* ZETA: Briefly +70% after approval to shut down its original L1 and migrate to Solana.
* NEAR: +16% 24H, briefly above $4.30 amid Intents growth and ecosystem incentives.
* AIOZ: +56% 24H as AI/compute narratives gained momentum.
* PHA: +35% 24H, benefiting from renewed AI and privacy-computing interest.
* TAO: +21% 24H, extending the AI sector rally.
⸻
📰 Key Updates
* Russia’s central bank proposed capping banks’ crypto-asset exposure at 1% of capital.
* Hana Bank issued a $100M digital bond through Euroclear’s blockchain platform.
* Circle launched BTC-backed lending, allowing users to borrow USDC against BTC collateral.
* ECB launched Pontes, a wholesale settlement platform for banks, with plans for direct investment in tokenized securities.
* Ondo launched a feature allowing institutions to convert stocks into tokenized shares and redeem tokens for underlying assets.
* Stablecoin infrastructure provider Agora received preliminary conditional approval to establish a federally chartered national trust bank.
* XPL faces a major unlock on September 25, equivalent to 63.2% of circulating supply and worth approximately $158M.
⸻
⚡ Quick Take
**BTC has broken into the $85K–$87K zone with broad altcoin participation**, but the rally is still partly driven by short covering rather than a full return of ETF demand. Sustained spot buying, renewed ETF inflows and continued ETH/SOL strength will be key signals for whether the breakout can extend.

Love the hype! I’m an ETH bull myself… but I don’t think ETH will ever flip BTC baring something catastrophic happening to BTC.