ETHEUR
Ethereum / Euro
crypto Composite

the XRP Army is going to cry tears. And I can go to hell with my ETH Shitcoins but I do love seeing them cry aggressively.

ETH or RTH

Solid summary, and Glamsterdam is genuinely the real deal — it did just enter its final devnet phase and EF engineers themselves call it the biggest fork since the Merge. A few things worth adding so expectations stay calibrated, because the post reads a touch more "done" than it actually is:
**No mainnet date yet — and it already slipped.** The original June 2026 target moved to H2, base case roughly end of Q3, with a real chance of sliding into Q4. ePBS (EIP-7732) is the bottleneck — it sits on the consensus layer where bugs propagate across the whole validator set, so it's the part most likely to push the timeline. The actual "it's close" signal is the Sepolia/Hoodi public testnet activations, not devnets.
**The 200M gas limit isn't flipped on by the fork.** Glamsterdam *unblocks* the path to 200M; it doesn't set it. Validators still vote the limit up via gas-vote signaling (they're around 60M now) and step it up only as nodes prove they can handle bigger blocks without degrading propagation. So no 60M→200M jump on day one — it's gradual.
**Fee cuts are operation-specific, not a blanket 78.6%.** Simple transfers get the big cut (\~71%, EIP-2780). But the repricing makes *compute* cheaper while making *state-creating* operations more expensive (EIP-8037). Net effect depends on what you're actually doing on-chain.
**For the ETH thesis specifically:** more L1 throughput + cheaper fees doesn't automatically mean higher ETH. The unresolved question is L2 value accrual — if activity stays on rollups, a cheaper/faster L1 doesn't necessarily capture value back to ETH. And historically ETH tends to dip \~10–15% in the days right after a major upgrade goes live as pre-positioned traders take profit ("sell the news").
None of this is bearish on the upgrade — it's a serious scaling step. Just that "final testing phase" ≠ "shipping next month," and "200M / 10k TPS" are targets it enables, not guarantees it delivers on day one.

On the one hand I'm happy one entity doesn't control 20%.
On the other, I'd feel less afraid if the biggest ETH supporter wasn't 10 billion underwater.

ETH -4.28% today
ETH -8% WTD
ETH -25.74%YTD

lmao just hold it bruh. ETH will be at 4k probs in 1-2 year timespan. So if you dont care about the money just leave it be, or even better, DCA while its still low like it is now, will ultimately give you larger gain in the future. At least that is how I think about ETH.

Demand is any reason to want to own ETH, whether long term or temporary.
> You have Tom Lee being a mini federal reserve sucking coins like a vacuume cleaner and it’s doing barely anything to both supply and price ratio.
1. You don't know what things would looks like without this
2. It's undoubtedly changing supply
3. You won't really see any exaggerated difference until an upswing when shorters need to buy enmass and there isn't enough liquid supply. This is why ETH always has violent runs.

Wen ETH below $1K?

I think the bottom is in the mid $1,500's. I don't see us going lower.
In 2022 we had the largest interest rate hikes in decades. We had massive corruption and bankruptcies. We had the Nasdaq take a huge decline. Then to top it off the US government was still extremely hostile. All of that pushed ETH to a low of $1,050 ish.
We are in a much much much better place now. The fundamentals of the blockchain itself have never been better.
The way I put a fair value on ETH is to look at the TVL on chain vs the amount of validators. This is the minimum value of ETH needed to secure the money using the blockchain. A value below this means that the money on the chain is technically not secure from bad actors. If you do the math the fair value minimum is around $7k.
I think eventually my way of estimating the fair value minimum will be acknowledged and corrected. If not then I hope North Korea, Russia, etc. eventually comes in and f\* s\* up. All these giant financial companies running their companies on L2 need to realize that this s\* ain't free. You need to support ETH or none of this s\* will work.

Cboe reportedly weighs perpetual futures for BTC and ETH as U.S. crypto rules shift

Alles konvertieren in ETH oder ähnliches und auf coinbase, Kraken oder eigene Wallet wechseln.

Agree. Only other coin that was ever rapidly accumulated was BTC and that launched when it started catching up. ETH is in a much better position than most altcoins.

Hey everyone,
I’ve been deep in the R&D trenches for a while now, building out my trading infrastructure and backtesting framework. I recently caught a nasty look-ahead leak in one of my primary intraday strategies that I thought was killing it—turns out it was just peeking into the future, and the actual live edge is a flat zero.
Since cleaning up my data pipeline and ensuring everything is 100% causally clean, I have rigorously formulated and tested over 80 distinct hypotheses (ranging from structural market skews, mean reversion variations, and VIX-rebound mechanics to alternative intraday trend-following filters).
The result? Absolutely zero sustainable alpha. Every single one either decays rapidly into noise after transaction costs/slippage or turns out to be complete variance around a zero-edge. The only things that seem hold up to a degree are basic daily structural skews, but intraday alpha feels completely dried up or hidden beneath transaction frictions.
For those who have been doing this full-time or for years:
1. Did you find your first real edge by significantly increasing complexity, or by finding simpler, overlooked market microstructural inefficiencies?
2. Appreciate any insights or reality checks. Back to the drawing board for now.
here’s my list of my hypothesis’s;
H1: Intraday momentum: early-session return predicts the last-bar return (session-boundary).
H2: FX time-of-day: a currency is weak during its own local trading hours, USD weak in US hours.
H3: Asian-session conviction predicts a same-direction US-session move (continuation).
H4: Overnight index gaps revert intraday (gap fade).
H5: Crypto over-reaction: large moves mean-revert.
H6: Turn-of-month: long equity indices around month-end (flow effect).
H7: FOMC even-week calendar cycle in equity returns.
H8: Overnight index drift (close-to-open premium).
H10: Gold/Silver ratio mean-reversion (pairs trade).
H11: VIX term-structure as a regime gate for equity exposure.
H12: Intraday FX mean-reversion portfolio (z-fade across majors).
H13: Vol-gated intraday FX mean-reversion (H12 + volatility filter).
H18: COT positioning reversal (fade extreme commercial/spec positioning).
H19: Variance-risk-premium (VIX²−realised vol) equity timing.
H19b: Meta-labelling upgraded the gap-fade into "edge #2" (later superseded).
H23: Oil -> commodity-FX (CAD/NOK) daily lead-lag.
H24: Risk-off FX: SPX stress predicts FX moves.
H25: VIX carry (term-structure roll yield).
H26: Discrete z-score mean-reversion generalised to non-FX assets.
H27: Index opening-range fade.
H28: Diversified 12-month time-series momentum (TSMOM), vol-scaled, across all asset classes.
H29: Cross-sectional 12-1 stock momentum (Jegadeesh-Titman) on \~31 US single-name CFDs.
H30: Crypto time-series momentum (trailing-sign, vol-scaled, monthly).
H31: Commodity time-series momentum (energy/ags/copper, 12m sign, inverse-vol).
H32: Betting-against-beta: long low-beta / short high-beta US large-caps.
H33: Gold+Silver trend-following on deep history (2003–2026, 12-1 TSMOM).
H34: Deep FX time-series momentum (10 majors, 2003–2026).
H35: Currency cross-sectional momentum (3-month rank L/S, 10 majors).
H36: COT commercial-flow acceleration (follow the weekly change in net positioning).
H37: EIA crude-inventory surprise -> oil drift (supply shock).
H38: Wikipedia-attention over-reaction reversal (fade attention spikes).
H39: GDELT global risk-tone shock -> safe-haven (long gold / short US500), 3-day.
H40: Wikipedia-attention continuation/momentum (follow attention spikes).
H41: Diversified cross-asset TSMOM book (\~40 instruments, equal-risk).
H42: H41 + a HistGradientBoosting ML meta-label filter.
H43: Metals-trend (H33) + ML meta-label strict-upgrade attempt.
H44: Commodity-trend (H31) + ML meta-label filter.
H45: Currency cross-sectional momentum (H35) + ML meta-label filter.
H46: Crypto weekend effect: short alts / long BTC over the Fri->Mon TradFi-closed window.
H47: COT non-commercial (large-spec) positioning-extreme fade, pooled across 12 markets.
H48: EIA natural-gas storage-surprise reversal on Henry Hub.
H49: Google-Trends fear-search risk-off -> short US indices / long gold next week.
H50: FX cross-sectional value / long-horizon reversal (cheap vs own 5y mean).
H51: GDELT Middle-East conflict-intensity -> two-sided oil geopolitical risk premium.
H52: Wikipedia "OPEC" sustained-attention trend -> directional crude.
H53: EIA gasoline inventory seasonal-surprise -> crude drift (storage theory).
H54: Discrete intraday index mean-reversion (M15, real tick-replay).
H55: Discrete intraday metals mean-reversion (XAU/XAG, M15, real tick-replay).
H56: Cross-index overnight lead-lag (US session -> ex-US index next open).
H57: Intraday breakout + ATR trailing-stop (path-dependent, real tick-replay).
H58: Market-neutral cross-index intraday MR (strips global-risk beta).
H59: Extreme-dislocation selective mean-reversion (few high-conviction trades/day).
H60: Discrete intraday stock mean-reversion (liquid US-stock CFDs, M15).
H61: Intraday-momentum "vol-since-open" breakout (Zarattini, VWAP-trail, EOD-flat).
H62: Ex-US-open FADE of the completed US move (= H56 sign-flipped).
H63: Follow 3-sigma intraday extremes / continuation (= H59 sign-flipped).
H64: Crypto weekend volume-conditioned reversal.
H65: Wikipedia attention-capitulation fade.
H66: Overnight-premium (night effect) momentum.
H67: Copper supply-chain "chemical" lead-lag.
H68: GDELT media emotion-intensity signal.
H69: Cross-asset synchronized attention.
H70: Break-and-retest continuation at a multi-day support/resistance level.
H71: Scheduled macro-event volatility-expansion continuation (NFP + FOMC).
H72: Prior-day high/low liquidity-sweep reversal (failed-break fade).
H73: Follow a large/coordinated G10 central-bank FX intervention (USDJPY) — the campaign's one confirmed event-edge.
H74: Month-end pension rebalancing -> directional equity-index pressure (last 4 days).
H75: FX big-figure stop-loss cascade continuation (Osler).
H76: Index quad-witching expiration-distortion reversal.
H77: WTI EIA-day intraday momentum (3rd half-hour predicts the last half-hour).
H78: BTC/ETH macro-event (FOMC/CPI) spike-and-reverse intraday.
H79: Post-announcement bad-news next-day drift (equity-index under-reaction).
H80: FX WM/R 16:00 London-fix W-pattern reversal.
H81: Gold LBMA fix (10:30 / 15:00 London) run-up-and-fade.
H82: Gold real-yield regime breakout (TIPS-gated).
H83: Natural-gas storage-deviation seasonal long/short.
H84: FX carry-unwind crash continuation (JPY crosses, VIX-gated.)

Idk. If I had 171k right now liquid. I’d drop 150k on BTC and rest on SOL/ETH.

ETH will hit 4k again in 2029 as for 2.2k I am guessing it will take BTC to go to 90k considering how bad the ETHBTC ratio is right know for that to happen I dont see that happening this year

Warsh is setting the markets up for surprise no hikes, surprise .5 bps cut 2 meetings from now. SPY 1000 EOY, ETH $10,000. It will happen fast. Maybe near end of year or a bit after. Until then we will float sideways, SOXL will continue grinding up slowly.

I see where the confusion is coming from. You're viewing demand strictly explicitly from fee revenue. This is the wrong way to look at things. There's a lot of demand that's implicit from increased activity. When you have ETH held in staking, as collateral, as a treasury asset, etc that's not stuff that requires constant interaction and won't reflect in fees but still creates demand sinks.
You should listen to the latest Edge podcast with Tom Dunleavy. He used to be a fee maxi then has pivoted and he explains his logic there.
https://x.com/DeFi_Dad/status/2067930625248555381

After 10 years, Bitcoin's fully diluted valuation was:
$18k x 21m = $378B
ETH was launched in 2015, 10 years later it's now sitting at $200.58B FDV.
With all due respect to bitcoiners, I think ETH is highly undervalued. Fair value wise, it should be at least 2-3x the value BTC was after 10 years, simply due to the amount of DeFi, TVL and on-chain activity.
Ethereum is indeed, very cheap right now. My only wish would be to have more capital to allocate. Best of luck to all.

if we know with what volume they are moving now, you could estimate rough timelines. Supply is finite. ETH inflation is also pretty much irrelevant compared to daily volume too.

Don't feel too bad about my ETH stack now - even if it hasn't really moved for four years 😂