ETHEUR
Ethereum / Euro
crypto Composite

Yup, fair point on the oil analogy. ETH for sure has no physical inventory that forces price the way tankers do, and I wasn’t claiming it does. I was rather arguing that this is was only the parallel on how analysts reason around the price of commodities, if the fundamental demand is tight or loose.
One clarification: the paper doesn’t use burn vs stock. It uses fee flows ÷ supply (Flow Intensity), then hotter/colder vs baseline (Flow Deviation). That predicted \~45-day direction out-of-sample at 76.4%. But you're right that it doesn’t calculate Ethereum's absolute market-cap level and the paper never claims it does. That’s an entirely different question and worth pursuing in an another working paper at all.
But really appreciate your careful read of the paper!

You bought ETH at 4600 ?

I’ve never wanted to break even so badly, it’s always the wrong timing when I invest somehow.. sold all my ETH holdings at $1,100 and bought back at $2500 thinking it would be bullish.. any advice on how to at least break even..? 😂😔

All my “crypto” assets I shifted to stablecoins from 2024-2025. I am 100% back invested. 61-64k BTC, and 1.8-2.2k ETH.
Didn’t get the bottom but didn’t want to chance missing the bottom. What do you think the bottom will be. If we hit a bad total stock recession maybe they go down significantly from here. Other than that I think we hit bottom or near bottom already

​
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85% BTC and ETH Rule for ETFs Appears to be Dead Per the SEC; We Can Expect New ETFs for 15 Non-Security Cryptos Including BCH Next

ETFs don't buy memes and DeFi. They only buy BTC/ETH/SOL.

So what is the point to possess ETH if, even with record of number of transactions the price doesnt go up?

Nice reply — but the oil analogy is where this breaks down, so let’s test it properly:
Relative valuation works for oil *because oil is tethered*. 36 billion barrels consumed per year against a few weeks of global inventory. If price detaches from consumption reality, barrels physically pile up (or drain), storage fills (or empties), and price gets dragged back within months. April 2020: storage ran out and oil traded at **minus $37**. That’s what a real tether does when tested. Oil analysts can skip the “what should all oil be worth” question because the tanks answer it for them, continuously.
Now apply that to ETH. Annual consumption (burn) ≈ 30K ETH. Stock = 120.5M. That’s **\~4,000 years of inventory**. Nothing fills up. Nothing overflows. If ETH’s price is wrong by 10x in either direction, no physical or economic force ever shows up to correct it — holders just sit at the new price. You’ve borrowed oil’s *methodology* without oil’s *mechanism*. And the methodology only works because of the mechanism.
So I disagree that ETH should be fundamentally valued on this metric.
Your model predicts direction over weeks, not value over years. It’s fundamentals-based in its inputs (real fee data) but technical in its output: ‘which way next 45 days,’ with today’s $222B taken as given. For long-term valuation, only the level question matters — is the price justified by the fundamental? — and your own OA.2 answers it: fee levels have zero predictive power.

The only point I disagree with is 5. The threat may be a few years away but so are the solutions.
With BTC there hasn't even been a decision made about which upgrade proposal should be implemented, let alone a timeline for doing so. With ETH the roadmap targets full protection by 2029 but it could take longer, bearing in mind that every bridge, L2, DEX, etc. is vulnerable. Solana doesn't even intend to upgrade yet and just says it has a plan to do so if quantum becomes a "credible threat".
There are chains like QRL that have been designed to be quantum-proof from day 1, without any vulnerable legacy systems that need to be updated or migrated away from, and with the upcoming Zond upgrade it will be EVM-compatible so it could become a competitor to those vulnerable chains.
There are also other L1s being developed that can run nodes on cheap computers with the ability to scale and process very high TPS without needing to use any L2s, so they won't have the difficulties that ETH faces with its upgrade.

Dein Beitrag wurde aufgrund folgender Regel entfernt:
>8. Kryptodiskussionen sind begrenzt.
Es dürfen nur die folgenden Kryptowährungen diskutiert werden: BTC, ETH, LTC, BCH Allgemeine Diskussionen z.B. zur Besteuerung sind erlaubt. Als Alternative steht r/Kryptostrassenwetten zur Verfügung.
Bitte halte dich in Zukunft an diese Regel.

*.mp4s* that GameStop minted on the ETH blockchain, yeah.

ETH range since late June is textbook Wyckoff accumulation, still riding this from $1564

Fair pushback and thanks for actually reading the paper! On the absolute-value point, you’re right. The model does not say whether ETH should be worth $220B or $22B. It takes today’s price as given and asks whether that price is currently backed by on-chain demand relative to its own baseline and then expresses that as an implied fair value. 
But I think that's actually the right way to start any ETH valuation. If you allow me a comparison to other commodities, such as Oil: analysts are not trying to answer "*Independent of today’s price, oil “should” be a $X trillion asset from first principles."* but rather "*Given current supply/demand and inventories, is the* *current* *price too high or too low / likely to rise or fall?".*
I think it's just that we arrived at this market cap due to various different reasons, and should now rather focus on modeling the fundamental demand for ETH from today onwards. In comparison, Oil’s “worth” isn’t derived as a standalone market-cap from yearly barrels consumed. The market sets the price and in the end analysts judge whether demand/supply dynamics support that price or argue for a move.

1/ you need a self-custody wallet — MetaMask, Rabby, or Robinhood Wallet. note: this is NOT your robinhood brokerage app. the app is an account; the chain is a wallet. different worlds. if the network doesn't appear, add it manually — chain ID 4663.
2/ the safest road: the canonical arbitrum bridge (linked from docs.robinhood.com/chain). trustless, no third-party validators, \~10 minutes. and here is the part nobody reads: if your deposit's L2 leg ever fails, the funds are NOT lost — retryable tickets let you redeem manually for 7 days. the bridge has a withdraw button that works. we felt seen.
3/ the fast road: aggregators like jumper (LI.FI) — robinhood's own listed partner — or relay, across, stargate. they route from 50+ chains including solana, usually under a minute. bring ETH or USDC.
4/ gas on the chain is ETH. keep a small amount in the destination wallet. arriving with tokens and no gas is being rich in a locked room.
5/ the vault rules apply to bridges too: type the official URL yourself — never tap a bridge link from replies or DMs. send a small test amount first. and nobody legitimate will ever ask for your seed phrase. not a bridge, not "support," not us. nobody. ever.
bridge safely. gm

dm me , dude i am gonna give you reality check , dont trade in crypto, its always bearish for all thousands of crypto currencies except BTC ETH TRX BNB XRP

Where are you getting your thesis from that small new L1s are going to succeed? 
The only small successful projects I'm aware of hook into existing chains, such as specific protocols for ETH DeFi. Those have very specific applications and often at least some proven background. New L1s, no matter how technologically sophisticated, simply cannot overcome the adoption problem. Even if they're being pushed massively by institutions and whales.

Swap from USDC to fUSD, and then swap back out to a different ETH address later. You now have private USDC. [FreedomDollar.com](http://FreedomDollar.com) has the details for how it all works.

https://preview.redd.it/6e687s65q4eh1.png?width=502&format=png&auto=webp&s=79eb553c49e0f3ce5db86cba9fcf49c8413e044b
There's a solution, but it would require the original minter (GameStop) to re-mint the NFTs and airdrop them to their rightful owners (using Loopring's public shutdown ledger data), and that would require a certain level of human cooperation and the right incentives and everything to make that happen. I understand your point, but as a GameStop customer and long-term shareholder, I would love to see this at least addressed in some way, rather than just pretending it never happened. There are loads of GameStop minted digital collectibles on the ETH blockchain stuck in limbo and GameStop can fix that. Especially considering it's largely the long-term shareholders and investors of this company that got wrapped up in this by participating in the NFT Marketplace in the first place.

If ETH keeps losing value, how are those people maintaining and improving Ethereum paid? Be pragmatic