ETHEUR
Ethereum / Euro
crypto Composite

hey OP, I got the same feedback from OpenAI
It’s a shame the only reason ETH is moving up is after lower-than-expected U.S. jobs data reset expectations for higher interest rates.
I think once rates are raised ETH will , well, go back to trading much lower.

You can draw all the triangles you want, but if people aren't rushing to buy ETH, and don't care about crypto anymore, claiming a triangle is bullish won't really change a thing.

Yep, even though I‘m an ETH maxi, SOL has still a great future next to Ethereum ;)

Today US mkt holiday, can we see any big price movement in ETH today??

ETH is a swing asset and caught some good swing trades but you can’t win em all. 👏

You can basically derive an implied fair value for ETH from its on-chain fee flows, which are entirely denominated in ETH. This bypasses the usual fiat-denominated circularity of USD valuations.
However, the model I’ve built in the end still gives you a true ETH/USD market price as fair value. And this implied fair value is both directionally and price level-wise quite highly correlated with the actual market price.
I’ve written an entire working paper on that an just submitted to Management Science, where it’s currently under review. But I will additionally open-source it on July 7th along a software I’ve built for that.
Maybe I’ll share it in here,next week, if it’s considered valuable for you guys - but I do think so, since no one has ever really done anything like that. It’s not only a random research report or analyst opinion or TA, but actually a science-backed approach to Ethereum’s fundamental value.

I’ve never heard a convincing argument why increased usage will result in an increased price for ETH. In fact, the stats cited by OP seems to show the opposite.

The answer depends on the definition of 'dead'.
If 'dead' means 'The future is not bright and the likelihood of a new ATH is very low.', then yeah, it's dead alright.
If 'dead' means 'It's going to zero!', then no, I don't think it's dead.
You must understand, it's very difficult for 'older' projects to reach new ATHs because there's always the recency bias and there's always a new shiny thing people will want to jump into. Just look at the top 10 projects (by market cap) at the beginning of every year since 2017:
|Rank|2017|2018|2019|2020|2021|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|BTC|BTC|BTC|BTC|BTC|
|2|ETH|XRP|ETH|ETH|ETH|
|3|XRP|ETH|XRP|XRP|USDT|
|4|LTC|BCH|BCH|USDT|LTC|
|5|XMR|ADA|EOS|BCH|XRP|
|6|ETC|XEM|LTC|LTC|DOT|
|7|DASH|LTC|XLM|EOS|BCH|
|8|REP|TRX|USDT|BNB|ADA|
|9|MAID|XLM|BSV|BSV|BNB|
|10|STEEM|MIOTA|TRX|XMR|LINK|
|Rank|2022|2023|2024|2025|2026|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|BTC|BTC|BTC|BTC|BTC|
|2|ETH|ETH|ETH|ETH|ETH|
|3|BNB|USDT|USDT|XRP|USDT|
|4|USDT|USDC|BNB|USDT|XRP|
|5|SOL|BNB|SOL|SOL|BNB|
|6|ADA|XRP|XRP|BNB|USDC|
|7|USDC|BUSD|USDC|DOGE|SOL|
|8|XRP|DOGE|ADA|USDC|TRX|
|9|LUNA|ADA|AVAX|ADA|DOGE|
|10|DOT|MATIC|DOGE|TRX|ADA|
Ask yourself now; where are REP, MAID, ETC, STEEM, MIOTA, BSV, LUNA and the likes... 2017 and 2026 have only 3 projects in common and one of them is Bitcoin.
The sector is mainly driven by hype because, I mean, what else is there? Right?
Very few projects have real-life use cases and real impacts on everyday life and ADA is NOT one of them.
However, that doesn't mean ADA can't be or shouldn't be traded. Anything can be traded. Then again, there's also the question; why would you trade ADA and not some other new, shiny thing?

HFT has been really annoying, in BTC/ETH feels like people are fighting over the last scraps of liquidity to make peanuts. Had to adapt stuff elsewhere to compensate. Liquidity is horrible too.

>**Beaes taking a bait,**
>**Fundamentals running late,**
>**Gearing for checkmate.**
~Daily haiku until we’re at least at 0.178 on the ETH/BTC ratio or highest market cap

All those fireside talks about $50k ETH being just around the corner. So much potential. It’s still there, but the world is harsh.

There's now over 1.5 million ETH sent to the Ethereum 2.0 contract

man I feel this in my bones. had to sell ETH at the literal bottom in 2022 to cover a dental emergency. watched it 5x over the next 18 months lol.

the comments saying "you're overexposed" are right but it's one of those things you don't realize until after it happens. like yeah obviously in hindsight an emergency fund should come first but when you're stacking sats and the number keeps going up it's hard to pull out for the boring cash account.

the borrowing against crypto thing is interesting. I've looked into it but the rates and the liquidation risk freak me out a bit. feels like kicking the can down the road rather than actually solving the cash buffer problem. idk, maybe I'm overthinking it

In Ethereum’s proof-of-stake, an attacker would generally need to control around 1/3 of the stake to disrupt finality, and more than 2/3 to fully control/finalize the chain.
That would bring you to roughly 700$/ETH at $200B network value, at 10T we looking at 27k/ETH
But,
They would have to buy huge amounts on the open market.
The price would rise dramatically as liquidity dried up.
Existing holders and validators would likely refuse to sell cheaply.
Any attack could result in the attacker’s stake being slashed, risking tens or hundreds of billions of dollars.
The point is that as the value secured grows, the economic cost of acquiring \~1/3 or more of the stake should also rise. Since ETH is the scarce asset required for staking, growing demand for economic security can increase ETH’s value over time. It’s not a fixed ratio—it is a economic relationship.

No but from the network it’s securing on chain like a vault and the token is the key
If it secures for example $10 trillion dollars, that is the value you could hold ransom if you controlled enough of the staking power.
If it only cost you $20B in ETH to get enough validators/proposers that you could charge extra fees or front run transactions on $10T of value, who wouldn't make that investment? There are entire businesses set up around controlling order flow before finality (e.g. Robinhood).
People will do these calculations, realize ETH is underpriced compared to the value it can extract, and start buying.
That’s just one price model for value, revenue and future pricing methods will add to that, while i‘m not a fan of the renting thoughts Lubin had i believe they will navigate a common middle ground that is fair for everyone using ETH.

Broken tokenomics that don’t capture value for ETH

>a lot of the response felt like word salad around “intentionality” without clearly explaining what ETH is supposed to become as an asset
I was frustrated by this answer as well. He was asked how is he going to fix the L2 freeloading. And he said something like "step 1 is to make sure we're more intentional about this kind of stuff and consider the economics of things and not just let technical aspects drive the decision."
Which is directionally good but feels like too little too late for this stage of the game.
I really hope his vagueness is due to having some secret aggressive marching orders from Tom Lee that he didn't want to reveal.

I bought ETH when it was around $300 in 2017 and mined it for four years, even when the price crashed to $80. The most I ever mined was about 1 ETH per week, and I mostly mined during the colder months. I usually shut the rigs down during hot summers, so most of the mining happened in winter, spring, and fall.
In hindsight, I probably would have been better off just buying ETH at $80. Mining 4 ETH in a month cost me around $600 in electricity, so roughly $150 per ETH. The rigs did heat the house, which lowered the natural gas portion of our energy bill, but I still could not compete with someone who simply bought ETH at $80. On top of that, I had all the hardware expenses, maintenance time, troubleshooting, heat, noise, and general hassle.
I like working on computers, but mining was not exactly the most rational approach. That is why I laugh at stubborn Bitcoin miners who seem trapped in the same mindset.
I also made some dumb BTC and ETH trades into shitcoins in late 2017 and early 2018. After that, I mostly just held the ETH I mined. All my BTC was traded away. In 2021, I sold some ETH to FOMO into the DOGE craze with Elon. Within a day, I bought back my original ETH amount and held the remaining DOGE as house money.
Since then, I have basically been a bag holder of all my coins. I sold some BNB in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and I sold some ZEC in 2026.
The rational thing to do would have been to unstake and sell all my ETH whenever it was above $4k, then buy it back when it crashed toward $2k. But that is hindsight wisdom. My bullishness on ETH prevented me from doing that.
And with my luck, if I ever decide to do that the next time ETH goes above $4k, it probably never goes back down to $2k.
I guess the lesson is that you have to pay attention to the broader asset sentiment and not just trap yourself in an echo chamber. Conviction is important, but it can also blind you.

I was not especially impressed with Ethlabs’ Ansgar’s answers to Laura. I understand the broader point about needing more intentionality around ETH, but that itself highlights the problem: ETH still needs a clearer value story.
Like it or not, ETH needs to be marketed more effectively as a number-go-up asset. Bitcoin has done this extremely well with the digital gold narrative and its fixed supply. Ethereum has a much more powerful ecosystem, but the ETH asset story has often been vague by comparison.
Ethereum L1’s higher transaction costs and slower throughput gave Solana an opening to steal a lot of the attention in 2024. The burn mechanism helped support ETH’s deflationary narrative, but after the high-fee criticism, the Dencun upgrade significantly reduced transaction fees, which also reduced the burn. That weakened one of ETH’s strongest monetary narratives, while the L1 still has not scaled to the point where it can compete on speed with some alternatives.
**I think Ethereum needs a much stronger and simpler narrative. Something like digital, programmable gold - quantum-ready, more useful than Bitcoin, and much faster than Bitcoin.**
**To really support that narrative, Ethereum L1 should ideally become quantum-ready before quantum risk becomes an obvious industry-wide concern. ETH issuance should also be lower than the current roughly 0.8% inflation - ideally near 0% or slightly deflationary - and L1 throughput should improve dramatically, potentially toward 10,000 TPS or better.**
**These things matter because ETH is not only competing with other L1s on technology. It is also competing with BTC, SOL, and other assets for investor mindshare and capital. If BTC continues to be viewed as the faster horse while also being less volatile, then ETH needs a much clearer reason for investors to choose it. “Programmable digital gold” only works if ETH can back that narrative with stronger monetary policy, better scalability, and a roadmap that regular investors can understand.**
**Obviously, those are lofty goals and much easier said than done. But I feel like Ansgar could have at least touched on that kind of roadmap or narrative direction. Instead, a lot of the response felt like word salad around “intentionality” without clearly explaining what ETH is supposed to become as an asset.**
Ethereum has the technology, ecosystem, developers, and legitimacy. But ETH, the asset, still needs a clearer story that regular investors can understand and believe in.
YouTube link and partial transcript below:
[https://youtu.be/bFwBR6z5HVU?si=htIC9\_nE7UIzlM5p](https://youtu.be/bFwBR6z5HVU?si=htIC9_nE7UIzlM5p)
*0:00*
***Laura Shin:*** *So, as I'm sure you're very well aware, a lot of people in the community are unhappy that Ether, the asset, hasn't been performing so well. Famously, David Hoffman kind of gave up on ETH, yet I saw his name on the list of supporters of ETH Labs, which was interesting. Anyway, tell us what you view as the problems with Ether, the asset.*
*1:28*
*The problem, and the problem for sentiment, which I share, is that Ether had that success five years ago. Ether has been in the $100 billion-plus category for five years. Basically, it won round one. It really had a lot of success. But ever since then, it has been waiting for the answer to what comes next. What more is there for Ethereum and Ether?*
*1:53*
*I think we have failed so far to clearly outline the role for Ether that would justify a valuation above that type of category. Bitcoin is the only crypto asset above $1 trillion, and there are really very few trillion-dollar assets in the world. What is the type of role that would justify Ether joining that category?*
*2:15*
*I don't think it is impossible. I think the problem has been that the relationship between Ethereum and Ether has been vague and undefined for a long time. People keep asking about this. In the early days, that did not matter as much. Coins were mostly sentiment trades. People were excited about Ethereum, so they bought some ETH.*
*2:40*
*But now people are getting more sophisticated, and markets are getting more sophisticated. So the question is: what is the actual value story here? Where does the value of ETH come from?*
*2:54*
*I am not here today to give a perfect answer to what the role of ETH is or what the value story of ETH should be. I think it would be naive to think that this is easy to answer in one shot. The more important thing is that it is time for these questions to be properly centered in the community and across the crypto space.*

ETH is dying. No utility left.
When it grew, ERC-20 was the main tool. Now there are plenty of solid (arguably better) alternatives. But ETH is still overpriced, without utility, at low demand.
The next ltc, etc, zec, bch.