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**TL;DR:** ServiceTitan's biggest customers are PE-backed contractors getting squeezed by rates. The software costs $50k+ a year, and it can't even produce a line-item estimate for insurance work. The president dumped $11.6M of stock in August. The CRO got replaced and the chief business officer walked. Four law firms are investigating them for securities fraud. I'm short. Literally and figuratively.
Positions: 8x TTAN Jan 2027 $40P (Pic in comments)
1. I know these customers. They're in trouble.
ServiceTitan sells to HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and roofing shops. The accounts that actually move their numbers are the big PE-backed rollups running 50+ trucks. Those rollups were built on cheap debt which isn’t cheap anymore, so the machine has stalled. No cheap debt means no new shops bought, no new techs hired, no financing growth. When the rollup stalls, net retention stalls with it, which is the main metric this stock trades on.
2. The product hides the details (which absolutely matter), and can't quote a roof reliably to match insurance.
No published pricing. Real world costs run $250 to $500 per tech per month. A 10-tech shop is looking at $50k to $70k+ in year one once you stack the mandatory onboarding and the Pro modules they pretty much force you into. Contracts run two to three years with early termination fees up to 100% of what's left. There are BBB complaints from contractors who paid for a full year while still waiting to finish onboarding.
If you know home improvement, here's the killer: The estimates it spits out aren't even line-item? A homeowner gets a price, not a scope. No line items means you can't reconcile it against an adjuster's Xactimate estimate, which is line-item by definition. For any roofer doing insurance work, that literally is the job. A year ago, ServiceTitan announced a partnership with Verisk to bolt Xactimate integration onto the platform. Even that press release was framed as "exploring ways" to make it work. A year later, is it the integration in the room with us? Nope…
3. Their new platform is a disaster and they basically said so out loud.
On the 9/8 earnings call, they disclosed a $2-3M revenue headwind from "timing differences" in revenue recognition between core and upsell products. Then they admitted the new Max platform needs so much change management that they "typically do not bill for the first quarter" of a contract. Think about what that means. Customers can't get it working, so the company can't charge for it. Stock dropped 30% on the news.
4. The president sold $11.6 million in August.
Vahe Kuzoyan, President and co-founder on August 11: 114,732 shares at $88.84. $10.2 million in one day. August 12: another 16,388 shares, another $1.5 million. September 17: 3,148 more at $57.07, which left him holding exactly 2 shares. Two. The president of the company owns two shares of the company.
5. The C-suite is walking out.
Same earnings call that killed the stock: Rikus Pretorius in as chief revenue officer, Ross Biestman out. And about two months back, chief business officer Connor Theilmann posted his goodbye on LinkedIn. Revenue chief gets swapped and business chief walks within weeks of each other, they caught the last chopper out of ‘Nam.
6. Four law firms are circling.
Pomerantz, Hagens Berman, Bleichmar Fonti, & Glancy Prongay all announced securities fraud investigations after the drop. Hagens Berman is specifically asking whether management was "sufficiently transparent" about the upsell problems and the revenue timing games. Sure, these firms file after every selloff. Four of them at once, with that specific allegation, is not nothing.
Not financial advice. I sell roofs, I probably qualify to wear a helmet just in case, lmao.

\*\*TL;DR:\*\* ServiceTitan's biggest customers are PE-backed contractors getting squeezed by rates. The software costs $50k+ a year, and it can't even produce a line-item estimate for insurance work. The president dumped $11.6M of stock in August. The CRO got replaced and the chief business officer walked. Four law firms are investigating them for securities fraud. I'm short. Literally and figuratively.
\*\*Positions:\*\* 8x TTAN Jan 2027 $40P (Pic in comments)
\*\*1. I know these customers. They're in trouble.\*\*
ServiceTitan sells to HVAC, plumbing, electrical, and roofing shops. The accounts that actually move their numbers are the big PE-backed rollups running 50+ trucks. Those rollups were built on cheap debt which isn’t cheap anymore, so the machine has stalled. No cheap debt means no new shops bought, no new techs hired, no financing growth. When the rollup stalls, net retention stalls with it, which is the main metric this stock trades on.
\*\*2. The product hides the details (which absolutely matter), and can't quote a roof relaibly to match insurance.\*\*
No published pricing. Real world costs run $250 to $500 per tech per month. A 10-tech shop is looking at $50k to $70k+ in year one once you stack the mandatory onboarding and the Pro modules they pretty much force you into. Contracts run two to three years with early termination fees up to 100% of what's left. There are BBB complaints from contractors who paid for a full year while still waiting to finish onboarding.
If you know home improvement, here's the killer: The estimates it spits out aren't even line-item? A homeowner gets a price, not a scope. No line items means you can't reconcile it against an adjuster's Xactimate estimate, which is line-item by definition. For any roofer doing insurance work, that literally is the job. A year ago, ServiceTitan announced a partnership with Verisk to bolt Xactimate integration onto the platform. Even that press release was framed as "exploring ways" to make it work. A year later, is it the integration in the room with us? Nope…
\*\*3. Their new platform is a disaster and they basically said so out loud.\*\*
On the 9/8 earnings call, they disclosed a $2-3M revenue headwind from "timing differences" in revenue recognition between core and upsell products. Then they admitted the new Max platform needs so much change management that they "typically do not bill for the first quarter" of a contract. Think about what that means. Customers can't get it working, so the company can't charge for it. Stock dropped 30% on the news.
\*\*4. The president sold $11.6 million in August.\*\*
Vahe Kuzoyan, President and co-founder on August 11: 114,732 shares at $88.84. $10.2 million in one day. August 12: another 16,388 shares, another $1.5 million. September 17: 3,148 more at $57.07, which left him holding exactly 2 shares. Two. The president of the company owns two shares of the company.
\*\*5. The C-suite is walking out.\*\*
Same earnings call that killed the stock: Rikus Pretorius in as chief revenue officer, Ross Biestman out. And about two months back, chief business officer Connor Theilmann posted his goodbye on LinkedIn. Revenue chief gets swapped and business chief walks within weeks of each other, they caught the last chopper out of ‘Nam.
\*\*6. Four law firms are circling.\*\*
Pomerantz, Hagens Berman, Bleichmar Fonti, & Glancy Prongay all announced securities fraud investigations after the drop. Hagens Berman is specifically asking whether management was "sufficiently transparent" about the upsell problems and the revenue timing games. Sure, these firms file after every selloff. Four of them at once, with that specific allegation, is not nothing.
Not financial advice. I sell roofs, I probably qualify to wear a helmet just in case, lmao.

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CRO got fired

You got rich ripping your customers off. CRO is trash 

I through $750 at CRO when it was 1 buck a coin. Long way for me yet.

No. We want CRO to be worth something.

We are going to see a very interesting Alt season this time around. CRO will be making moves

Ohhhh the other thing that’s helped a lot, is that CDC in the USA added a cash earn. So, I can now get 4% on cash sitting in an account, which is great, because previously I never wanted a lot of cash sitting in CDC. So, I would have to ACH from my back, wait for the deposit to clear and top my card up. Some times that was a pain occasionally, especially if I wanted something unexpectedly and quickly. Now I keep a decent reserve of cash earning 4% (in their native coin CRO) and therefore now I don’t have that issue of unexpected use & not enough on the card. Also just for absolute clarity, they offer several cards of different values, and everything is in CRO. You deposit CRO & get a card where the deposit earns cashback, plus card spending cashback. With additional perks, Netflix paid for up to an amount, plus I get unlimited entrance to airport lounges +1. My husband’s card is a lower tier, so he gets a limited entrance yearly & only for himself. So we always use my card when traveling together!

Yea we had to downgrade after printing so much CRO haha

I didn't ignore the reversal. Not during the trump pump not during the cysle before that. I still have my cdc card stack CRO and time the exit. During the dump now I sold along the way down. Atm I am stacking to sell during what is brewing up to be a new early alt season.
I also doubled down on my ETF's during trump's tarief tantrum. Got everything at a 20% discount. The man is good for investors with steel nerves and a plan. (Never use all your buying power in one go, it doesn't matter if you miss an opportunity, a new opportunity is always around the cornern.

Man, I honestly can't wrap my head around why nobody is talking about Jack in the Box right now.
If you bring up $JACK to most people, they just shrug and assume it’s another tired fast-food chain stuck in a rut. But if you actually dig into what’s going on under the hood , the leadership change, the financials, and how stupidly cheap the stock is , it feels like we're watching a massive disconnect between Wall Street and reality.
Seriously, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills looking at this setup. Here is why I think this thing is a coiled spring.
**The Sales Slump is Over (Look at the Numbers)**
Everyone loves to complain about how bad Jack's sales were over the last couple of years, and sure, it wasn't pretty for a minute. But people are completely ignoring the actual trend. Look at the system-wide same-store sales over the last 6 quarters:
Q3 Fiscal 2026: -1.1%
Q2 Fiscal 2026: -3.8%
Q1 Fiscal 2026: -6.7%
Q4 Fiscal 2025: -7.4%
Q3 Fiscal 2025: -7.1%
Q2 Fiscal 2025: -4.4%
Look at that trajectory! We hit rock bottom at -7.4% and have steadily climbed all the way back to basically flat (-1.1%). Plus, **on the latest earnings call, management said that Q4 so far has crossed back into positive SSS territory.**
**Taco Bell Royalty is Running the Show**
You can't talk about a turnaround without looking at who's steering the ship, and Jack went out and poached absolute heavyweights. Mark King , the guy who kept Taco Bell thriving all through COVID , is the Chairman and CRO. Now, Taylor Montgomery (who was the CMO over at Taco Bell) is stepping up as President and working directly alongside King and will be CEO within 12 months with King staying as Chairman.
**They brought that exact same playbook over:**
high-energy marketing, leaning into culture, and making the brand actually fun again. Case in point: have you seen the recent Simpsons campaign? It’s awesome. If you want proof that it's working, just go lurk on the Jack in the Box Reddit for five minutes. Regular customers are actually pumped about the ads and the food right now. The vibe has totally shifted.
**The Math Makes Zero Sense (In a Good Way)**
This is the part that blows my mind the most.
The Earnings & Cash Flow: The company just printed a solid $1.08 EPS for the quarter and is actively chipping away at its debt.
The Franchise Model: Because the system is about 93% franchised, corporate mostly just collects royalty checks off the top line. That means they don't get completely hammered by crazy beef and food inflation the way corporate-owned chains do. Free cash flow is looking great
The Valuation: Annualize the EPS at around $4.00, and you get a trailing P/E ratio of roughly 3.5. Read that again. Three point five. Normal fast-food stocks (QSRs) usually trade at an 18 to 22 multiple.
Oh, and Biglari is just chilling in the background owning nearly 10% of the company, acting as an activist catalyst to make sure value gets unlocked.
What's the Catch?
**Wall Street is pricing this thing like it's headed for Chapter 11, completely ignoring that elite operators are fixing the business, sales are roughly back even with Q4 signalling that SSS might be positive.**