BTCUSDT20240724C68250
Bitcoin / Tether USD Jul 24 2024 68250.00 Call
crypto

Low effort spam to keep prattling on about BTC. Moderation please?

This can get long very fast, but let’s try to oversimplify:
Let’s look at the opposite of inflation, deflation. Assume money would gain in value, instead of losing value. What would you do? You’ll probably say: save more, spend less. And that is a problem, because when people are unwilling to spend money, demand for products and services goes down. Factories have to cut production, service providers have to reduce their services, ultimately lay off people or cut their wages. More people are unemployed, they spend even less because they no longer had money to spend. This can spiral out of control quickly.
Another issue with deflation is: most people cannot buy a house outright. They have to take a loan. With deflation, their loan becomes more expensive with time, which is bad…
Hitting exactly zero inflation is difficult, but even you could, having inflation has its benefits: people don’t want to just hold on to their money, it would become worth less over time. So they do something else with it. Usually invest or spend. Spending is great, increases demand, more workers are needed, unemployment goes down. Companies want to take loans so they can invest, since the loan depreciates over time. Same goes for homeowners whose loans become cheaper and cheaper (inflation-adjusted) over time.
Since with moderate inflation, people like to spend money, employers need more people. What happens when workers are in high demand? Right, they can choose where they want to work, and employers will be willing pay more to.
The key is: that inflation must be low enough that wages can increase in the same way. If inflation becomes much larger than wage increases, people effectively have less and less money for buying the things they need, and have less to spend on other things (see above).
If you have say 2% inflation and an average of 2% wage increases, that is not only sustainable but also kind of optimal: it encourages people to spend or invest their money, both create jobs and stabilise the economy, and the wages are stable, value-wise. Also, it makes sense for both businesses and homeowners to take loans, because the loan will decrease over time, the money borrowed can be invested (which again, keeps the economy going).
Without inflation, you have stagnation. People just keep their money and don’t do anything with it. You can see it in this sub, so many people advocating for never selling Bitcoin. If Bitcoin would be our main money, that would be a problem.
Inflation becomes problematic if it becomes too big. If inflation becomes greater than wage increases, it just becomes a kind of tax, essentially.
The idea of Bitcoin of not allowing uncontrolled inflation is a good one. But zero inflation is the wrong choice. I would argue that a constant 2% annual increase in supply would have been a better design choice.
This would also solve another issue: the halvings have been significant in the beginning, and no longer are significant for the Bitcoin price (this is natural since the effect gets lower from halving to halving, and it’s not a problem). Yet people still seem to believe halvings are significant because they have been in the past.
In fact, at some point, no new Bitcoin will be issued through mining and mining rewards will all be transaction fees. This is an unnatural transition in the design (albeit smoothed because rewards/supply increases are reduced slowly). Keeping the supply increases constant at a fixed level would have been a cleaner design.
If you look at the current supply increase, btw, which is around 165k BTC per year, at 19.5 million of BTC in circulation, that’s a supply increase of a bit less than 1%. Before the last halving, it was closer to 2%, which is arguably close to ideal. You could argue - but I have no evidence for that - that this contributed to Bitcoin doing so exceptionally well in recent years.

Coinbase premium turning positive is a solid sentiment indicator! When this metric flips positive, it typically means US institutional investors are buying BTC at higher prices than global averages. This often signals strong buying pressure from bigger players in the market.
After weeks in the red (indicating selling pressure), this flip could suggest institutional confidence is returning. Worth watching if this trend continues beyond a few days before drawing major conclusions though.

Conversational
I see you're having fun extrapolating numbers into the distant future! 2062 is a looong way off though - I'll be happy if I can just figure out what BTC will do in the next bull run. Have you thought about all the variables that might exist in crypto 38 years from now? Would be crazy to see Bitcoin reach those numbers in our lifetime though.

I view my naivety and ignorance as a blessing in one fashion or another.  Had I been fully cognizant of what I had when the price was amidst soaring its way to top, my impatience and cluelessness would have driven me to sell it for less than half of what I can get now... Had I been smart and lucky enough to sell it at its zenith, that would have been $12000 which is a shit ton of money to a poverty-stricken dolt such as myself.  And if there was a way to access/reobtain my .1 BTC, $8k, or whatever 10% of what it's going for now is, would go a long way in my life the way the bills are piling up and with Christmas fast approaching.  I should sue those slimeball sleazeball fu*ks at StrongCoin!

All of this is completely irrelevant, because BTC price is a mirage created by endless free USDT and the NgU cult. It‘s **manufactured** to look a certain way to you in the charts, because that‘s how they‘d like you to view it. Because they know you‘re not smart enough work out that BTC is a dead cripplecoin walking.
Bitcoin is not about endless price circle jerks. It‘s about this:
> **Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System**
>
> A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a
financial institution. Digital signatures provide part of the solution, but the main
benefits are lost if a trusted third party is still required to prevent double-spending.
>
> What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust,
allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trusted
third party.
— [Satoshis Bitcoin Whitepaper, October 31, 2008](https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf)
Wake up.

According to this pattern 2062 BTC will be extremely bullish and reach 1000+ billion USD (→∞ / 21M)

>So utilizing BCH for the current value of instant, sovereign transactions is a better battle to fight than going for the complete take down of BTC imo
I agree, unfortunately the fight is forced upon us. BTC still claims and markets itself as better money and pushes custodial LN adoption without educating people about p2p cash and self custody. But most bCashers are actually builders r/btc is a place where the narratives collide. Take a look at Twitter or Telegram if you want to find the BCH builders.

My big three, BTC, ETH, BNB. You don't have to like BNB to understand why it will still be thriving in 5 years. ETH will be No1 one day due to its programmable nature which will help it outfox BTC down the line. BTC is the only one I struggle to see a reason for its survival 5 years from now, but obviously crypto wouldn't be here without it, Quantum computing will be interesting for its survival.

Remember to keep emotions in check during corrections. The Fear & Greed Index is likely in "Extreme Fear" territory right now - historically a good contrarian indicator. Consider DCA instead of lump sum entry, set buy orders at key support levels (200-day MA, previous ATH). This pattern has played out multiple times in BTC history, but past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The correction size matters - 30%+ drawdowns typically need months to fully recover. Check funding rates on perpetual futures for market sentiment before making moves.

BTC dropped about 1% over the last 24 hours to around $90.6K, even though it’s still up almost 8% on the week. A few things look like they’re weighing on price:
• Heavy resistance around $93K Bitcoin ran into a wall near its 20-day EMA and other key technical levels. Traders took profits when it couldn’t break through, which added to the pullback.
• ETF outflows BlackRock’s IBIT saw over $100M leave the fund, which doesn’t crash the market by itself but definitely doesn’t help sentiment.
• Market still cautious The Fear & Greed Index is stuck in “fear,” and overall crypto liquidity has been thin, so any selling hits harder.
Nothing super dramatic, just a mix of resistance, profit-taking, and cautious vibes. If BTC can climb back above \~$93K, bulls might regain momentum. If not, a dip toward the mid-$80Ks isn’t off the table.

Ask this question : is your stack at 10 BTC or above?
If the answer is NO, you need to continue accumulating.

Yep, and those shitty alt coins will never replace BTC, EVER.

Conversational
Hey there! Congrats on... whatever it is you're celebrating! New Bitcoin milestone? First successful trade? Or just feeling the general crypto excitement lately? Either way, the enthusiasm is contagious. What's got you popping the champagne? I remember how stoked I was when I made my first full BTC purchase years back.

I have made an ultra long term commitment with some of my BTC.
Because the potentiale heavily outweighs the risks, I crafted a multi-sig solution last year to keep bitcoin in my family for at least the next 4 generations.
The method, which I call the Greek Chain is published on the internet, for free.
If you want to know how its done, I have shared the method on my profile.
No paywalls and no adds.

Im glad to hear that. Thank you for sharing your Opinion. Its funny, because I thought about this yesterday and already tried some paper trades on BTC. And it was more simple to me and less stress.
To find the ticker isnt that complicated for me. I screen with Trading view with the mentioned Filters (for pre-market) 10 Minues before NYSE opening (not more than 5). Then I execute strategy.
But yes, futures would be less stress. I will continue testing.

I see you made a small error with the line from March 2024 to November 2024, this caused you to miscalculate the top. BTC is going to reach same value as 4 billion kilograms of gold.

Have you thought about BTC Staking? There are many options, like Babylon

If you work a dead end job, the best investment you can make is not in BTC but in yourself. Use your money to increase your value to others.
I once worked in a supermarket stacking shelves about 15 years ago. I taught my self to program, I hustled, got into skydiving where I met all kinds of interesting people many who owned their own companies.
One such person a CEO of a tech company saw something I made and offered me a job due to the potential he saw.
That opportunity opened a lot more opportunities where I ended up creating my own company with the CTO of the original one I worked at as an angel investor.
I sold my interest in that company and now living in Thailand. A country btw which introduced 0% capital gains on crypto in 2025 until at least 2029.
FYI , i also own BTC and a whole coiner.

….but it’s not a hedge on inflation, like at all. We saw what happened to the price of BTC the minute inflation was running on the US economy - it crashed. It is highly speculative gambling at best. The global banking system is far superior to crypto - do you fully believe crypto, which is 24/7, should be a stronger brand of financial strength? I’d argue there needs to be hours / caps on global financial markets like there currently are for a myriad of reasons. Imagine being asleep at 3 am and you wake up to find out BTC crashed 90% due to some unforeseen event, should that be allowed to occur for something that revolutionizes monetary policy? No, no it should not. The point I’m making is that everyone says exactly what you said, but doesn’t provide hard evidence of what it does that is a net benefit compared to the current financial system. Healthy financial systems have checks and balances on underlying vehicles - crypto has significantly more risk than this. I am trying to be shown hard evidence of it being anything other than a pyramid scheme.