ARK Reddit Mentions | ChartExchange

The issue isn't with modeling the numbers Tesla throws out there, it's the credibility of them achieving those metrics to begin with. Literally go back and look at any promise or pitch Musk has ever made. Everything is always going to cost nothing, be bought by everyone and be impossible to duplicate because
Tesla or whatever other company he has is somehow better at it than everyone else in the world. FSD and Robotax in particular have been fraught with such promises for a decade now. It was supposed to be done 10 years ago because Tesla had it 'solved' then in 2019 everyone was a year out from having their Model 3 make them $30k/yr. The Solar Roof was going to cost less than solar panels + a traditional roof and be on millions of homes in the US. Tesla's Cybertruck was going to have its body folded out of a big stainless steel panel ike origami and cost only $45k and outsell the F150, look at the preorders! Hell every automaker on the planet was supposed to be out of business years ago because Tesla's 'Alien Dreadnought' factory was going to be so automated traditional factory designs wouldn't be compete. Hell their existing vehicles were supposed to be produced at 30%+ operating margins as of a few years ago due to their massive innovations in battery technology.
Just with FSD's development initially people were promised there would never be any beta test period. Everything would happen silently in the background via redundant processors, reinforcement learning and 'Shadow Mode'. Then simulation wasn't going to be needed and Google were fools for investing in it. Then Dojo was going to put NVIDIA to shame and let them out train everyone else despite the massive amount of R&D NVIDIA does. Hell in 2019 you had better buy your Tesla that year because Elon Musk said they almost had FSD cracked and as soon as they did they wouldn't even sell you a car because they would be an 'appreciating asset' and Tesla would be devoting 100% of its production to building out its own fleet for years to come. Hell this whole local roll out thing wasn't supposed to be necessary either because FSD was just supposed to work everywhere all at once and one day Musk would flip a switch and just start making $50B more in profit a year.
This goes for every ARK Invest model ever too, it's always some complex Monte Carlo sampled model that sounds great until you realize that their underlying assumptions and distribution boil down to Tesla either being extremely successful or unfathomably successful.
Numbers matter when they're credible to begin with not 'aspirational' projections and scenarios that rely on everyone else sitting still and doing nothing while Tesla is allowed to corner a market. Waymo already exists and is more widely deployed as is. Yeah Tesla is claiming amazing cost metrics that will put the competition to be permanently, but they literally always do that. At this point it boils down to a credibility and achievability problem with FSD lagging the actual robotaxi providers in terms of deployment and actual ride miles delivered. There's a core question of whether Tesla ever achieves anywhere near the the kind of metrics they're promising and whether or not to believe the story given the unreliability of the person narrating it.

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