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Appreciate you going point by point, but almost every one of these is the same mistake. You’re sizing future opportunities using today’s markets. That’s Investing 101 stuff.
1. You’re comparing robotaxi to Uber/Lyft revenue. That’s like sizing the iPhone market by looking at BlackBerry sales in 2006. The TAM isn’t rideshare. It’s all miles driven. When you remove the driver, you don’t just take Uber’s market, you blow the entire transportation market wide open. Trips that are too expensive today become cheap. People who don’t use rideshare start using it. The market GROWS. ARK models this at $10T+. You’re looking at a $60B rideshare market and thinking that’s the ceiling. It’s the floor.
2. Tesla is running unsupervised robotaxis in Austin right now. No driver. No safety monitor. This point is already dead.
3-5. Optimus isn’t a consumer product. It’s already working inside Tesla’s factories doing repetitive tasks. The target is the $30 trillion global labor market, not selling personal robots at Best Buy. And your argument that specialized robots beat general purpose ones is exactly what people said about general purpose computers vs. dedicated calculators. We know how that played out.
6. Name one autonomous semi competitor that also manufactures the truck, the battery, the charging network, and the autonomy stack. I’ll wait.
7. Autobidder is Tesla’s proprietary software. Saying it’s “not Tesla-specific” tells me you haven’t actually looked into it.
8. Tesla Energy grew 44% last year. Their fastest growing segment. You’re calling it a non-factor while it’s quietly becoming a monster.
9. 12% FSD take rate in early adoption and you’re writing it off? Netflix had 7.5 million subscribers in 2008. Sometimes you have to see where the curve is going, not just where it is.
10. Tesla is actively in licensing discussions with OEMs now. “No takers for a decade” is outdated.
11. NACS is the North American charging standard. Every major OEM adopted Tesla’s plug and is paying to access the network. You’re calling that thin margins? That’s toll-road economics.
12. Tesla prices insurance off real-time driving data from every vehicle on the road. Comparing that to traditional insurance margins is missing the entire point of why their model is different.
13. In-vehicle commerce in a driverless car with a captive passenger and a screen is nothing like sticking an ad on the back of an Uber headrest. Completely different product.
14. Fair point on AI compute competition. But no cloud provider has billions of miles of real-world driving data. That’s Tesla’s edge.
15. Data monetization at $0 today? Tesla’s FSD is trained on that data. The value is already being captured. External monetization is a future layer.
16. BMW charged a subscription to unlock heated seats you already paid for. People hated it because it was a scam. Tesla sells actual software capabilities that make your car do new things. Not even close to the same model.
Here’s the pattern… Every single one of your counterpoints takes a future opportunity and evaluates it using today’s numbers, today’s competitors, and today’s market size. That’s exactly how people missed Amazon, Netflix, and the iPhone. The whole point of a platform thesis is that the market expands as the technology matures. If you can’t see past current TAMs, you’re going to keep being confused by Tesla’s valuation.

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