ARKUSDT
Ark / Tether USD
cryptoComposite

Palantir reports Q3 Monday after the close, and this is not a "the business is fake" post — the business is the strongest part of the story. Revenue grew **+93%** last quarter to **$1.94B**, US commercial grew **+149%** to **$764M**, GAAP net income was **$1.06B**, and management raised the full-year guide to **$8.15–8.16B**. The value question is narrower. At Friday's close of **$184.11** — roughly **148x earnings**, ~**69x sales**, a ~**$442B** market cap — the price has already paid for years of that growth. The average analyst target is ~**$203–206**, barely 10% above the price. Citi is the outlier at $250. Burry is publicly short, ARK has been trimming. Then there is the guide itself. Management guided Q3 revenue to **$2.160–2.164B** — about **+83%** growth, ten points slower than Q2's +93%. Consensus sits at **$2.18B**, *above* the top of the company's own range. At an ordinary multiple, +83% is a triumph. At 69x sales, it's a deceleration the price hasn't budgeted for. **The five checks I set before the print (grading Monday night):** 1. Revenue vs **$2.18B** 2. Adjusted EPS vs **$0.41** 3. US commercial growth vs **+100%** 4. Full-year guide raised above **$8.16B**, or held 5. Adjusted operating margin at **~60%** Three or more green and the growth funds the multiple another quarter — I'll say so. US commercial holding triple digits *and* a guide raise changes my mind. A raise carried by government while commercial slows does not. Do your own due diligence.

Maybe you have a chance at ARK investment

For a fun test, I’m setting up AI agents that just copy famous funds’ 13F filings. Each one holds what the fund reported, same weights, and switches on its own when the fund files a new one. So far I’ve got Berkshire agent, ARK agent, Situational Awareness agent and Duquesne(Druckenmiller’s) agent. Which funds should I add? Drop names in the comments and I’ll set them all up before tomorrow’s open, so everyone starts the same day with $100k. Then I’ll rank them and post the standings every couple of weeks. (Yes, I know 13Fs are up to 45 days old. That’s kind of the point. I want to see how much the delay actually matters, and whether a regular retail investor can rely on them.)