ARKUSDT
Ark / Tether USD
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Well today sucked for CMPS and HELP shareholders, no way around it. CMPS was down 27.31%, HELP was down 16.94%, and I could barely keep down my lunch. While I do think part of today's drop was caused by the report that Usona submitted an NDA for its psilocybin drug, looking at the broader market I think that only accounts for *some* of today's price action. **ARKG performance** When I saw how hard CMPS was falling, I decided to also look at how ARKG was doing. For those who don't know, ARKG is Cathy Wood's "ARK Genomic Revolution ETF" which is basically an ETF focused on innovative biotech companies. CMPS is ARKG's 16th largest holding (it holds 5,058,583 shares of CMPS, making up 2.64% of the ETF) and the ETF was down 6.05% today. Here's how some stocks in the ETF did today: * Twist Bioscience - down 15.54% (TWST makes up 8.25% of ARKG) * Absci Corp - down 12.94% (ABSI makes up 5.47% of ARKG) * Natera - down 8.54% (NTRA makes up 4.79% of ARKG) It was a bad day for ARKG and so it seems like a lot of the red here was due to it being an overall shitty day for small-cap biotech. **XBI down 2.52% today** XBI is the go-to ETF for biotech and so on days when you're trying to see if CMPS, HELP, DFTX, etc. are down because of the specific stock of if it's just a broader down day in the sector, you always want to check out XBI first. Today was a big down day for XBI and notably when XBI is down like this, small-cap stocks feel it the worst. **Volatility because of tomorrow's CMPS earnings** CMPS has a history of the stock going down the day before earnings. I used AI to help with this, but I double-checked the numbers with Claude and ChatGPT and I believe they're accurate: |Earnings date|Previous trading day|CMPS move| |:-|:-|:-| |Aug 5, 2026|Aug 4|\+4.89%| |May 13, 2026|May 12|\-2.90%| |Mar 24, 2026|Mar 23|\-1.29%| |Nov 4, 2025|Nov 3|\-5.85%| |Jul 31, 2025|Jul 30|\-8.16%| So today was *rough*, but I think that CMPS and HELP would have had harsh days today regardless of the Usona news. I was a buyer today, but a nervous one at that!

Palantir reports Q3 Monday after the close, and this is not a "the business is fake" post — the business is the strongest part of the story. Revenue grew **+93%** last quarter to **$1.94B**, US commercial grew **+149%** to **$764M**, GAAP net income was **$1.06B**, and management raised the full-year guide to **$8.15–8.16B**. The value question is narrower. At Friday's close of **$184.11** — roughly **148x earnings**, ~**69x sales**, a ~**$442B** market cap — the price has already paid for years of that growth. The average analyst target is ~**$203–206**, barely 10% above the price. Citi is the outlier at $250. Burry is publicly short, ARK has been trimming. Then there is the guide itself. Management guided Q3 revenue to **$2.160–2.164B** — about **+83%** growth, ten points slower than Q2's +93%. Consensus sits at **$2.18B**, *above* the top of the company's own range. At an ordinary multiple, +83% is a triumph. At 69x sales, it's a deceleration the price hasn't budgeted for. **The five checks I set before the print (grading Monday night):** 1. Revenue vs **$2.18B** 2. Adjusted EPS vs **$0.41** 3. US commercial growth vs **+100%** 4. Full-year guide raised above **$8.16B**, or held 5. Adjusted operating margin at **~60%** Three or more green and the growth funds the multiple another quarter — I'll say so. US commercial holding triple digits *and* a guide raise changes my mind. A raise carried by government while commercial slows does not. Do your own due diligence.

Maybe you have a chance at ARK investment

For a fun test, I’m setting up AI agents that just copy famous funds’ 13F filings. Each one holds what the fund reported, same weights, and switches on its own when the fund files a new one. So far I’ve got Berkshire agent, ARK agent, Situational Awareness agent and Duquesne(Druckenmiller’s) agent. Which funds should I add? Drop names in the comments and I’ll set them all up before tomorrow’s open, so everyone starts the same day with $100k. Then I’ll rank them and post the standings every couple of weeks. (Yes, I know 13Fs are up to 45 days old. That’s kind of the point. I want to see how much the delay actually matters, and whether a regular retail investor can rely on them.)