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# ARK Invest reverses yearlong Palantir sell-off with $10M buy across four funds

Normally - anything ARK (Cathie Wood) touches, turns into the Jim Cramer jinx.

Normally - anything ARK (Cathie Wood) touches, turns into... {insert your answer}.
She definitely doesn't have a Midas touch so I wouldn't celebrate this.

ARK Invest bought PLTR on a historical April 10th, 2026

Have had it since inception it’s pretty great.
A lot of people hate on Arks, but ark absolutely crushes in bulls.
My return so far is like 120%, it will go higher as well.
If you want exposure but don’t want to do Ark, try rise or templum etc… there are plenty out there.
For ARK , I just don’t love the way that Cathy latches onto Tesla/Elon stuff sooo much. But I guess the dude knows how to create huge successful businesses. 

"But if you're planning to hold for years anyway, does that really matter?"
So many people say that about high growth popular names when they're doing well until you have a 2022 or early 2025 and then the long-term investment time horizon shrinks to "why didn't I sell this yesterday?" There's a UK trust called Scottish Mortgage and despite the name, it's a very aggressive growth fund that can invest in public and private names. It did really well in 2020 - it's just now getting back towards 2021 highs (which is shitty performance, but at least they're getting back towards 2021 highs, Cathie's ARKK is still just shy of 50% below 2021 highs.)
" And yes, it's an interval fund so you can only sell quarterly."
How much of the AUM can sell quarterly? With a lot of these funds, if a quarterly redemption becomes more than x% of the fund, a lot of people are going to be told to wait until next quarter. Can the fund be gated for any reason? I would look at the fine print.
"read a Motley Fool article"
Not something I'd recommend.
" SpaceX"
I'd much rather SATS (and it's still surprising to me that that hasn't gotten more discussion/interest as largely a SpaceX tracking stock) Or even BPTRX (SpaceX 33% of the fund as of March 31.)
There's also other things out there that invest in private companies. I wouldn't want to give Cathie Wood (who once tweeted about how her massive losses at ARK were a good thing) any money and I really wouldn't want to invest in a Cathie Wood interval fund with limited liquidity.

I just read a Motley Fool article about the ARK Venture Fund (ARKVX) as a way to get exposure to SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic pre-IPO. Those three alone make up about 32% of the fund, and I would like to own all three.
The returns since the fund launched have been excellent.
I know the expense ratio is brutal at 3.49%. And yes, it's an interval fund so you can only sell quarterly. But if you're planning to hold for years anyway, does that really matter? I'm not day-trading this thing. The quarterly liquidity constraint is a non-issue if you're genuinely long-term, and the expense ratio is the price of admission to companies you literally cannot buy on the open market otherwise.
Curious what people think. Anyone here holding ARKVX? Any red flags I'm missing?

Alright so to start, most of what you have is not junk, so you can at least relax on that part. I am not a fan of the ARK family of ETFs myself, we call the fund manager Crashy Woods for a reasno. I'm also pretty unfamiliar with PATH so no opinion there.
Moving along, you've basically bought large cap growth, and in particular tech, a bunch of times over. VOO and QQQ are about 80% the same thing, they also have NVDA right at the top, and there in SMH is more NVDA and the other semis like AVGO which are also near the top of VOO, QQQ, and SCHG.
My opinion: put all the cash into a mix of VTI(as your core US ETF) and VXUS. This will more or less get you set up in a way that will do pretty well without needing to be messed with while you get your bearings and learn more about what exactly you want out of a portfolio.

I built a system that tracks every 13F filing from 550 institutional investors managing $56 trillion in disclosed equity holdings. I wanted to answer a simple question: what percentage of each fund's current positions are actually in profit?
I estimated cost basis for every position by walking the quarterly purchase history back to 2014, then compared estimated entry prices against current market prices. This covers 18 million position changes across 11 years of SEC filings.
**The headline number is humbling.**
The median fund has a 69.5% win rate on their current book. Average is 68.9%. That sounds decent until you realize a diversified index fund would likely show 70-80% of its holdings in profit during any sustained bull market. Most of these funds are charging 2-and-20 to roughly match what you'd get holding VOO.
**The celebrity fund scoreboard (Q4 2025):**
|Fund|AUM|Win Rate|Avg P&L|Avg Hold|Positions|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett)|$274B|70.0%|\+54%|4.0 yr|40|
|Carl Icahn|$8B|69.2%|\+34%|3.5 yr|13|
|Pershing Square (Ackman)|$16B|63.6%|\+61%|2.7 yr|11|
|Elliott Management (Singer)|$15B|63.2%|\+24%|1.6 yr|19|
|Two Sigma|$67B|62.5%|\+15%|1.9 yr|3,347|
|Lone Pine Capital|$14B|62.5%|\+28%|1.3 yr|32|
|Citadel (Griffin)|$147B|62.2%|\+11%|2.1 yr|5,682|
|Viking Global|$38B|60.5%|\+21%|1.5 yr|76|
|Bridgewater (Dalio)|$27B|59.6%|\+10%|1.6 yr|1,038|
|Renaissance Technologies|$65B|58.6%|\+20%|2.8 yr|3,155|
|Coatue (Laffont)|$40B|57.7%|\+28%|1.9 yr|52|
|Soros Fund Management|$8B|54.2%|\+2%|0.8 yr|203|
|ARK Invest (Cathie Wood)|$15B|51.8%|\+24%|4.3 yr|195|
|Tiger Global (Coleman)|$30B|44.4%|\+16%|2.6 yr|54|
|SoftBank (Son)|$16B|37.5%|\+11%|2.1 yr|32|
**How to read this:** AUM = 13F equity holdings only (excludes bonds, options, and non-US assets - Bridgewater manages $150B+ total but only $27B in disclosed US equities). Win Rate = % of tracked positions showing unrealized profit vs. estimated cost basis. Avg P&L = average cumulative return since estimated first purchase, not annualized. Berkshire's +54% over a 4-year average hold is roughly 11% annualized. Positions = tracked equity positions with estimable cost basis.
Out of these 15 celebrity funds, only Buffett sits above the dataset median. Renaissance Technologies - the single most legendary quant fund in history - is 11 percentage points below the median. Soros is barely better than a coin flip.
**The real winners are the ones nobody follows.**
The top of the leaderboard isn't dominated by hedge funds. It's insurance companies and wealth managers. Clifford Swan Investment Counsel runs roughly an 86% win rate across 300+ positions. Markel Group - Tom Gayner's value-oriented insurance company and the closest thing to a mini-Berkshire - sits around 78% across 200 positions with strong avg P&L. State Farm's equity portfolio shows about 83% winners across 170 positions.
These firms aren't trying to be clever. They buy quality companies, hold them for years, and don't churn for management fees. They don't run complex hedging strategies that muddy the picture. And they're consistently beating the celebrity names on this metric.
**Win rate doesn't tell the whole story.**
Two things jumped out:
Tiger Global has a 44% win rate - more losers than winners in their book. But they still show +16% avg P&L. Their winners are big enough to carry the losers. That's a legitimate high-conviction, high-variance approach. Whether it's worth 2-and-20 is a separate question.
ARK is similar: 52% win rate (barely a coin flip) but +24% avg P&L. The math works because her winners are enormous - Palantir at +772%, Rocket Lab at +1,538%. The question is whether you can stomach positions like Workhorse (-100%) and Wirecard (-100%) to capture that upside. ARK's portfolio is basically a barbell: huge wins and total wipeouts.
Pershing Square is the outlier worth studying. Only 11 positions but the highest avg P&L on the list at +61%. Ackman runs ultra-concentrated (99% in his top 10) and his winners like Hilton (+283%) and Lowe's (+206%) have been held for 5-7 years. Concentrated patience seems to work better than diversified trading.
**The full distribution:**
|Win Rate|Funds|% of Total|
|:-|:-|:-|
|80%+|72|14%|
|70-80%|183|35%|
|60-70%|188|36%|
|50-60%|70|13%|
|Below 50%|16|3%|
97% of funds beat a coin flip. But only 14% crack 80%. Most celebrity funds sit right in the fat middle of the bell curve.
**Caveats (read before commenting):**
This analysis uses 13F filings, which have real limitations:
* **Equity-only.** No bonds, options, or short positions. A fund with a 40% equity win rate could be massively profitable on derivatives. Renaissance's Medallion fund crushes everything, but that alpha comes from strategies that never touch a 13F.
* **Cost basis is estimated.** I walk quarterly position changes to approximate entry prices. This breaks down for positions that went through reverse splits or CUSIP changes. It's the best approximation available from public data, but it's not trade-confirmation-level precise.
* **Not all positions are tracked.** 13F filings include equities, bonds, warrants, options, and convertibles. This analysis covers equities only (stocks, ETFs, ADRs, REITs). Positions without sufficient price history to estimate cost basis are also excluded.
* **Quarterly snapshots.** Funds that trade frequently will have less accurate estimates since we only see end-of-quarter snapshots.
* **Bull market context.** High win rates across the board partly reflect the 2023-2025 bull run. The real test is which funds maintain these numbers through a downturn.
This is one lens. A useful one, but not the complete picture. Treat it as a starting point for research, not a fund recommendation.